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[origamiscienceguy]

OSG:

And you, Hector, seem to be immediately after a mislynch trying to find someone to blame.

Given that hector did not actually vote 4maskwolf, why are you accusing him of pushing for his lynch? And how would you know that 4maskwolf being lynched would result in a mislynch?

I need to apologize as well. I was really mad at TDS for randomly killing someone, and so I wasn't thinking straight. I don't have any evidence for or against hector or 4mask.

[TheDarkStar]

BLAHHHHHHH.
Just one more day .....

Sorry Varee. I got a bit frustrated and randomly killed someone.

Bah.

[flabort]

RARRAGAGHRAH
CRASH
READS
GONE
RAGHRAAGARAHAGARAGH

WHY DIDN'T SAVE STUPID FLABORT

[Cheeetar]

Hello delicious friends! I'm the new Persus- reading through a bit, but I see that he's already claimed recall so I've gone ahead and recalled besmirch, which is causing some people some problems. I am not sure how up to date I will get, and will probably focus my reads on stuff that happens post this post, but I'll attempt to eventually have a more solid understanding of what's gone on so far.

(Also: Any general gameplay tips for CYOM would be appreciated.)

[Deus Asmoth]

Do we know whether TDS was really the one who killed Varee? Because no one else got killed yesterday.

[origamiscienceguy]

Yes, he kind of admitted it here:

BLAHHHHHHH.
Just one more day .....

Sorry Varee. I got a bit frustrated and randomly killed someone.

Bah.

[hector13]

Ah you are a lovely and sympathetic person.

My insult was uncalled for, yours isn't any better.   I will refrain from insulting you in the future, I wish I hadn't in the past, and I hope you extend the same to me.

Of course, that's why I fucked off at the time I was also experiencing a bad mood from RL issues, and I was going to say something much worse than I did, but the tiny voice of reason spoke up "Is that really going to make you feel any better, and is it going to make the situation better?" so I buggered off to calm down. Sometimes it's nice being an adult.

I appreciate your argument about 10 (some of which was me just being a dick) vs 3, but you can only be sure that the people on the lynch didn't have a Guilty Conscience at the time of the lynch. Given that the scum can only kill one person, they're not wasting an action by copying Guilty Conscience back on to their team-mate(s) the next day.

I also appreciate that that's making more assumptions than you did, but I don't like the idea of applying Occam's Razor with more than one or two assumptions, because then it's more likely that any assumption you make is going to be wrong, which obviously means any conclusion you draw from it will be flawed. This is more of a personal thing; the variables are many with human behaviour.

It could be that Persus/Cheetar is scum, but I'm not convinced they are from your argument.

Also Origami, 'cause all you seem to have done for the past in-game day or so is make nice, and I'm still not happy with the way you moved your vote on D1.

[Deus Asmoth]

Yes, he kind of admitted it here:

BLAHHHHHHH.
Just one more day .....

Sorry Varee. I got a bit frustrated and randomly killed someone.

Bah.

So then, if there are two scum teams, there could be at least two more people poisoned (besides Tiruin's that got cleansed).

[origamiscienceguy]

Doing some analysis on the players and their roles:
- Deathsword: Town
- TheDarkStar: Town
- Peradon: Town
- Varee: 3rd Party
- origamiscienceguy
- Flabort
- Hector13
- Tiruin
- Shakerag
- Deus Asmoth
- Persus13
- 4maskwolf

Spoiler: ramble (click to show/hide)

there are so far 3/12 town players and 1/12 3rd party. Given NQT's post at the beginning of the game:

Numbers permitting, there will be either two mafia teams, third parties, or (most likely) both.

If there are enough people, there will be two mafia teams and two 3rd parties. This is a total of 6 players at minimum which is 50% of the total players. Since the mafia don't get a night kill, this seems like a reasonable amount. Assuming that this is true, This means that there are 3 town left, 1 3rd party left, and 4 mafia left, 2 teams of 2. Along with 4 npc's. We can assume that the mafia teams are working together within themselves to either sabotage the town, or kill the town, NQT, if the mafia members are in two teams, does one team know that there is another team? While the third part is most likely playing for themselves. Let me try to deduce who the remaining 3rd party is: Can't be necromancer, because there would have been some players raised from the dead at this point, Trickster is a possibility, because so far 3 players out of 5 have been killed by their own team, Philanthropist is not likely, because as far as I know, varee has been the only one giving out items, and he is dead, Serial killer is not likely because TDS and possibly deathsword have been the only ones killing anything, Holy Mole, Flabort, You are a thief, aren't you? Yout inflating inflate shinanigans almost is a dead givaway!

I started the game with the three-point auto, three points of flaws, Flexible, and Free-Inflate x4.
When I got changeling, I sold it to buy two more Free-Inflates. Used them all on... you guessed it, inflate.
On the beginning of day 2, I sold one inflate to buy the free-self-protect and self-cleanse that I used to get rid of non-voter. I also got the other auto to protect me from a certain angle of attack, because I'm a little cowardly this game; as well as Death Resistant.

I currently, not including changeling shenanigans, have a self cleanse, a self-protect, another power or two that I can't remember right now, Flexible, Death resistant... and I have a few free-inflates.
I designed it to have very little day1 power, be safe on day2, and have much utility on day 3 when I sell another inflate.

That solves the 3rd party issue, but that leaves 4 scum and 3 town. I have no idea at this point.

Summary: I bet that flabort is a thief. Anybody see any flaws in my argument?

[4maskwolf]

One huge, gaping flaw: there is nothing that said there has to be multiple third parties except for some phrasing by NQT which could just as easily have been a way of hedging in case he got enough player to put multiple third parties in the game.  I am EXTREMELY skeptical that NQT would make only half of the players town, even if there were two scumteams.

hector13: Yeah, I pretty much buggered off too last night after saying that, which is a good thing for both of us.  Obviously any conclusion drawn in this game is going to be flawed, otherwise it wouldn't be mafia, my personal opinion is that action analysis is the least flawed way when compared to scumhunting.  Obviously everyone has their own opinions.

Cheeetar, your predecessor once again placed his vote on someone with no votes on them at day end without any explanation, which from my action analysis is suspicious as all getout.  However, origamiscienceguy is absolutely either mimicking me in an effort to look townie or just normally trying to look townie, but I'm not reading his most recent post as anything but attempting to look townie without actually putting effort into it.  His entire rant talks basically about third parties which don't even necessarily exist in the game, which seems rather silly, since as town you need to hunt the SCUM and not the third-parties.  Speaking of which, origamiscienceguy, why FOS flabort for (hypothetically) possessing a harmless role for an unaligned third-party.  If he, under your assumption that he is a thief, makes his wincon by using means that do not hurt the town, I see no reason why we should lynch him over scum.

[origamiscienceguy]

I don't want to lynch him, I just want to see his response. The more information, the better. I just FOS'd him to make sure he would respond.

Yes, I was copying your rambling strategy because it seems to work. I am not trying to mimic you in any way. I was unaware that using someones strategy is considered mimicking.

\ His entire rant talks basically about third parties which don't even necessarily exist in the game,

We know that 3rd parties are in this game. Varee was one.
I was trying to find clues to a third party so we can narrow down the list and therefore get closer to finding scum. If my theory is correct, then the possible scum are:
Origamiscienceguy
4maskwolf
hector13
Shakerag
Deus Asmoth
Cheeetar
and Tiruin
of which 4 out of 7 are scum.

[4maskwolf]

Also, all of the freaking lurking.  If lurkertracker was actually working, I'd tell you just how much lurking there is... oh hey it worked this time.  Ehem.

Since D1 start:
4maskwolf:102 posts
Deus Asmoth: 31 posts
flabort: 37 posts
hector13: 71 posts
origamiscienceguy: 118 posts
Persus13/Cheeetar: 16 posts
Shakerag: 14 posts
Tiruin: 31 posts (apparently, but the real question is how many have content)

If I'm reading this correctly, then origamiscienceguy and myself we have half of the posts of still-alive players in the thread, which is pretty impressive considering I have three rather small time-slots during the day to post anything anywhere on the forums except on weekends.  I know people have lives, but it's a problem in mafia when half of the players don't play.  flabort has basically disappeared off the face of the earth in this game, Tiruin hasn't posted anything, Persus13 just got replaced out and was actually more active just before he got replaced, and Shakerag posts from time to time but seems to post for a single two-hour-or-so timeslot on weekdays only, leading to limited interaction.  Deus Asmoth hasn't said particularly much either.  So basically, this entire game has been me, hector13, origamiscienceguy, and the now-dead players talking to each other.

PPE:

I don't want to lynch him, I just want to see his response. The more information, the better. I just FOS'd him to make sure he would respond.

Yes, I was copying your rambling strategy because it seems to work. I am not trying to mimic you in any way. I was unaware that using someones strategy is considered mimicking.

\ His entire rant talks basically about third parties which don't even necessarily exist in the game,

We know that 3rd parties are in this game. Varee was one.
I was trying to find clues to a third party so we can narrow down the list and therefore get closer to finding scum. If my theory is correct, then the possible scum are:
Origamiscienceguy
4maskwolf
hector13
Shakerag
Deus Asmoth
Cheeetar
and Tiruin
of which 4 out of 7 are scum.

You're assuming that there are two third parties because why?  Also, my ranting turned up nothing useful, didn't get people talking, so I wouldn't consider it all that effective.  I used the word mimicking not as a derrogatory phrase but just to mean that you're copying it, which you admitted to doing.  This isn't a bad thing, the bad thing was that I'm getting a sense of "trying to appear town" from your post, not the fact that you copied my posting style: do that all you want, it doesn't bother me.

[Deus Asmoth]

I don't want to lynch him, I just want to see his response. The more information, the better. I just FOS'd him to make sure he would respond.

This right here. How would your FoS have any effect whatsoever after you said this?

[origamiscienceguy]

Well, it got yall's attention, so there's no way he can avoid it now.

[Deus Asmoth]

Another way to avoid him dodging it would have been to not put it in spoiler tags and actually address it to him rather than putting it at the end of a paragraph. The only thing that made it even slightly easy to pick up on was the FoS.