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[Cryxis, Prince of Doom]

I curtainly would go for Hugo if I were in EP's situation

[WillowLuman]

I curtainly would go for Hugo if I were in EP's situation

Why?

[Cryxis, Prince of Doom]

Statistically your not likely to be lover since you've yet to be a clone at all in the past games and you were a lover last game.

[anailater]

That makes zero sense, it's random he's still exactly likely to be a lover, unless Meimie changed it.

[Cryxis, Prince of Doom]

If it's random isn't it less likely for him to be lover twice in a row and not become clone four times in a row?

[hector13]

If it's random isn't it less likely for him to be lover twice in a row and not become clone four times in a row?

If you take his chances of being the lover or hero or friend or a clone in all the games at once, yes.

If you take each game in isolation, which is more sensible, he has the same chance of being the a particular role as anyone else.

[Cryxis, Prince of Doom]

I don't count them as isolated

[hector13]

I don't count them as isolated

That's silly then. Previous games have literally no impact on what role a player is going to get in this, or future games, beyond any additions or subtractions MeiMie does at the behest of the players.

[Elephant Parade]

I don't count them as isolated

I think I mentioned this before, but the fact that he's been the lover twice before doesn't mean he's any less likely to be the lover this time; it's still the same random chance. If he fakeclaimed lover twice, I'd be suspicious.

[Cryxis, Prince of Doom]

I'll see myself out
All I was saying is what I would do
Didn't expect a bunch of guff for it

[hector13]

I'll see myself out
All I was saying is what I would do
Didn't expect a bunch of guff for it

Merely correcting you on your erroneous assumption that previous games have an effect on this one I, at least, didn't mean anything by it.

You were right in saying that any one player is unlikely to get the same role in consecutive games, but that likelihood has no influence on the chances of a player being a particular role in any particular game in a data-set.

[Peradon]

In a game with 10 players, there is a 1/10 chance of someone getting either lover.

If you are analysing the future possibilities, the chance of the same person being lover twice in a row is 1/20.
The problem with this is that the odds change every time you get more info. Thus, if you get lover once, its not a 1/20th chance of getting lover again, its 1/10th. The problem here is that this is end game, thus the odds have changed even more, so the odds of said person being lover twice in a row, when he has been lover once already, plus he's in end game with 3 people is 1/3rd.

So really, from a statistical point of view, there is an even chance of each of us being the lover.

[Elephant Parade]

Statistics aren't really relevant, in this case. I could see people using statistics to point out the strangeness of, say, four people claiming to know that the same person is a clone, but they're not that important in Clone Room.

/me kills Peradon

You have two claims against you, one of which was from a probable Best Friend. I could be wrong, but I really don't think I am.

But so does anailater, and they've been even more suspicious.

* Elephant Parade kills anailater.

[Peradon]

Note that if those two people are clones and they knew that I am the lover, they would claim I was clone.

[Elephant Parade]

Note that if those two people are clones and they knew that I am the lover, they would claim I was clone.

I'm aware. One of the two claimed Friend, though, and I'm not sure that Clones can know who the Lover is.

Edit: Then again, I'm ignoring CPOD's claim due to WIFOM. So really, it's only one claim.

I think kj1225 is the Best Friend, but I'm not sure. Kevak was insanely lurky, and there's no reason for the Best Friend to be lurky, so it's probably kj1225.

kj1225: Why did you stop posting?