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Author Topic: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!  (Read 218664 times)

Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1155 on: February 10, 2015, 09:46:55 pm »

Extend too.
Coincidentally, net died the whole night until now yesterday, wiping pretty much everything related to this -.-
(I could get a screen pic of all those tabs going 'Connecting...' or 'Loading...' if I'm still doubted. :-\ Please don't let it go that far...)

Scripten: Prior to all this, could I ask why you're very direct in wanting me lynched overall? Could you summarize and outline the reasons on why? The causes on why those reasons are reasonable, too?
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Shakerag

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1156 on: February 10, 2015, 10:18:55 pm »

We have yet to hear Tiruin's inspect N2 as well.
ಠ_ಠ

Scripten

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1157 on: February 10, 2015, 10:46:47 pm »

Scripten: Prior to all this, could I ask why you're very direct in wanting me lynched overall? Could you summarize and outline the reasons on why? The causes on why those reasons are reasonable, too?

I think I've done this already.

But essentially, you haven't really contributed any content or done any scumhunting. I mean, I get that you're a PR, but so are the rest of us. Not only that, but the only person you've pushed against so far has been me. Since today has started, you've established no clear reads on the majority of players. I mean, here's your last reads list:

Quote
Cheetar= Leaning town, with reservations
    Jim Groovester= Null leaning town
    Persus13= Null maybe leaning town
    Shakerag= Null
    Deus Asmoth= Null
    UXLZ = Null
    Scripten = "Leaning scum, which I should really post my big post to note."
    zombie urist = Null
    Toaster = Null

The last two were summarized into a single word: "neutral". I get that they were lurky, but surely you have something on them? And again, I get the lack of net. But you haven't actually even shown us abbreviated versions of your case on me, other than that you thought I was scum for scumreading you. There's also the posting style you're using, with lots of sentence fragments and tons of fluff without much in the way of content. I've seen your town and scum games and, while each game is a little different, your town game is much more coherent and formulated. I think you're quite nice and fun to play with, but I also still think you're scum this game.

Can you take another look at Toaster and Zombie Urist and tell me what you think of them? Doesn't have to be long. In fact, I'd prefer brevity.
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Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 1 always ruins vacations
« Reply #1158 on: February 10, 2015, 11:30:36 pm »

My own reads: (Lurkertracker won't load, so I have to do this manually. >:I )
Cheetar: Asking plenty of questions. Inquiring on things a lot (particularly the gambit, which is expected.) Overall, lean Cheeetar. It feels like his usual play.
notquitethere: I suspect they're collecting vast archives of data right now. They don't really stick out that much, but the majority of NQT's play comes from after N1, so I'm expecting more then.
pisskop: Just replaced in from 4mask's gambit thing. Null read for right now because of complications. Nevermind. Shakerag tells you to not answer his questions with another question, and you do it again. And you're asking how UXLZ knew 4mask was a PR, when it was mentioned in the PM that's been quoted maybe 4 times now, and confirmed that the PM was legit by other people that got it (Since I was one of those people, I can confirm this now.) You even said you got those PMs!
Jim Groovester: I can never frelling tell what Jim's up to. Lean Jimbot.
TheDarkStar: Early on in the day, I kept forgetting he was playing. And then with the vote with pretty much nothing to back it up... People have already stated all this, though. I... really think that this is more scummy than 4mask's gambit, or flabort's claim of it. From both of their cases, I can see reason why town or third parties might do what they did. But placing a bandwagon vote with no reason of your own is just a flat scumtell, which is the best we've really had so far (from my point of view, at least.) So Vote TheDarkStar Well, new things are turning up now.
Persus13: I keep forgetting you're playing. I look back, and see you post plenty, but I keep forgetting you.
Shakerag: He's around. Doesn't stick out much, but he's around. Ok, just read the latest posts. Hmm.
ToonyMan: Not really posting a whole lot. Meh.
Deus Asmoth: He's questioning and counter-questioning things. Although he seems kinda focused on the gambit, so I don't really know what to make of that.
flabort: Being blatantly obvious about receiving the PMs from 4mask. Not wanting to disclose specifics about it, while still showing that it happened. Claims it was an accident. From a scum perspective, he seems to be trying to incriminate 4mask, and is doing a very bad job of it. From a town perspective, he seems to be doing a very bad job of accusing 4mask of being scum. In either case, this is not his best play I've seen from him. Trying to think of it from a third party perspective, I'm not really sure what could be happening. Unless he's actually playing brilliantly well as a spore spreader, I dunno. Honestly, I kinda get the feeling that he's more likely to be a third party than scum. Because all I can see from both a town viewpoint and a scum viewpoint is that he's playing badly. From a third party viewpoint, there's actually some possibilities that he knows what he's doing. I very wary of this.
UXLZ: Seems really over-conscience of something at some points, particularly early on. Maybe third party? Definitely not vanilla, in any case.
Scripten: When the reveal of the gambit came out, he actually wanted to know more of it from the viewpoint of the people less-involved (being me and DA) I like this, he's not being narrow-minded. Lean town for now.
Tiruin: Still trying to read through the thread. Nothing leans one way or another for me on her yet.
Deathsword: Not really here much. Trying to catch up, from what I can tell.
Toaster: Asking a lot of questions. Questioning why people aren't voting. Hmm.... I dunno. The things he's doing are very town-like, but I get a weird feeling? Like maybe he's trying to instigate conversations, without being the main one involved in them. I don't know where I'm getting this feeling from. I hope he's not an alien.

Let's see:
3: 'their alignment is themselves!' or just commenting on the player being the player, not anything about alignment (Cheeetar, Jim, NQT)
2: 'Could be town but also could be not town' (Toaster, Deus Asmoth)
5: 'iunno' (Deathsword, Tiruin, ToonyMan, Shakerag, Persus13)
3: Suspecting the easiest targets (Pisskop, Flabort, TheDarkStar)
1: Town (Scripten)
1: Third party (UXLZ)

This adds up to 10 null reads, 3 bandwagoning reads (albeit very hesitant ones where you don't vote for anybody), and two 'actual reads'.

Hey Scripten, why are you the only person Mastahcheese saw as town?
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Scripten

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 1 always ruins vacations
« Reply #1159 on: February 10, 2015, 11:54:04 pm »

Hey Scripten, why are you the only person Mastahcheese saw as town?

How the hell am I supposed to know, exactly?

Considering his reads are fabricated, I would imagine there was some element of reasoning behind them, like perhaps to have a town player become ingratiated with them or perhaps to frame them later. Beyond speculation, I can't really say a whole lot.
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Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1160 on: February 10, 2015, 11:54:42 pm »

You don't think it's even particularly interesting that you're the only player he thought was town? Is there anything else interesting about his reads?
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Scripten

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1161 on: February 11, 2015, 12:02:59 am »

You don't think it's even particularly interesting that you're the only player he thought was town? Is there anything else interesting about his reads?

Sure, it's interesting. I mean, he went and tried to get me lynched not long after. Post-game, I'd be interested to know if he wanted to set up a town buddy or if he was more interested in designing a fake "busing" attempt. Seeing as he was a scum guard, his death would likely have been a consideration of the scumteam.

The most interesting parts of his reads are relatively moot points now that he's dead. I would probably have eventually picked up on the fact that he was hunting third parties really hard, which should have been a scumtell to me. (I'm not quite used to third parties in games yet, I'll admit. I've been trying to work on that aspect of my town game.) I do note that in your reply, you took note of the strength of his reads, but not the nature of them, so it's likely that you're coming from the same perspective as I am.
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zombie urist

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1162 on: February 11, 2015, 02:36:53 am »

Sorry I can't get a post in today.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1163 on: February 11, 2015, 02:57:15 am »

So, we need a plan.

Firstly, we need to lynch somebody today.

Secondly, we need to do night actions with the remaining players in a way that maximizes our ability to find scum.

Spoiler: Claims for Reference (click to show/hide)

I think our night plan should be something along the lines of the following:

Persus13 protects Scripten.
Deus Asmoth protects Persus13.

This verifies that Scripten is a War Vet as he claims, and it also prevents all three from performing the night kill. I.E., if Persus13 doesn't visit Scripten, Scripten will know since he won't try to kill Persus13; if Scripten does something besides being a War Vet Persus13 and Deus Asmoth will know since there won't be a kill attempt (A dopp War Vet can not perform then nightkill and passively kill people in the same night); if Deus Asmoth doesn't protect Persus13 then everybody will know since Persus13 will be dead.

They could all be on the same team and lie about the whole thing, I suppose, but I think that's unlikely.

Meanwhile,

Shakerag puts his tracking device on Jim Groovester.
zombie urist blocks Shakerag.
Jim Groovester visits a target of his choice.
Tiruin telepaths Jim Groovester.

zombie urist blocking Shakerag prevents both players from performing the kill. Shakerag gets his tracking device results even if he's blocked, so if Shakerag is honest then he should be able to report my target and if he can't then he's scum. Meanwhile if he reports that I visited the night kill target then that will be rather suspicious. Tiruin keeps me honest by verifying that the telepath results she gets on me is consistent with my claim and my intended action. Come Day 4, Shakerag and Tiruin should PM their results to another party so that if either of them (or both) are scum they can't infer their fakeclaim results from the other's claim.

Meanwhile, the following people are free and clear to do as they please.

Tiruin - Tiruin could fakeclaim her telepath results and instead perform the night kill.
Cheeetar
UXLZ - Shakerag has a tracking device on him but if they're scum together then UXLZ could perform the night kill.
Toaster

If every other part of the plan goes off without complication and everybody gets the expected results then we'll know that the night killer is somebody from this list. In my opinion we should lynch somebody from this list today. Probably not Tiruin since she has an important function in the night action plan, and probably not UXLZ since if somebody dies before reporting their results we'll need him to get that information (but if he's scum then we won't be able to trust his information anyway). So that leaves Cheeetar and Toaster as possible lynch choices.

Also, in this plan, my part and Persus13's part are basically interchangeable. Instead, I can visit Scripten and Persus13 can visit whoever, and that's how I initially drafted the plan before I realized there was an opportunity for more information if I followed or watched somebody whose action wasn't a known quantity. The parts can be swapped if people request it.

Further, a danger with this plan is if somebody does something they're not supposed to, and basically by somebody I mean zombie urist blocking somebody he's not supposed to. He could block Deus Asmoth and then there would be two kills during the night, but if that happens we will immediately know that he's scum. A further danger is that if zombie urist and one of the enchanters is scum then the town could instantly lose the game if we mislynch today and zombie urist decides not to go along with the plan; they could night kill the town enchanter, block Deus Asmoth with the result of Scripten killing somebody, and then they would have four votes with four town left, at which point, they win (unless they do something dumb like target Scripten the night afterward but why would they). Despite the dangers I think this plan has a good chance of catching a fake claim tomorrow, and if not, then significantly narrowing down potential night killers.

Thoughts? Is there anything I missed or failed to take into account?
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1164 on: February 11, 2015, 03:49:21 am »

Right, so the actions for everyone are:

Myself: Nothing
Cheeetar: Nothing
Toaster: Nothing

Tiruin: Investigate Jim

Jim: Investigate ???
ZU: Blocks Shakerag
Shakerag: Tracks Jim, Nothing

Scripten: Vet Guns Armed
Persus: Guards Scripten
Deus: Guards Persus

Have I missed anything?
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1165 on: February 11, 2015, 03:58:34 am »

That's correct.
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Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1166 on: February 11, 2015, 04:19:22 am »

Problems with first part:
-Persus13 & Scripten are scumteam, kill DA. This is solved if UXLZ is town and DA gives us the pertinent info through him.

Problems with second part:
-Tiruin & Jim Groovester are scumteam, Tiruin is free to scumkill whomever she wishes because she already knows what Jim's gonna do.
-Tiruin & Shakerag are scumteam, Shakerag tells Tiruin what Jim does while Tiruin kills someone.
-Shakerag & Zombie Urist are scumteam, Zombie Urist performs nightkill. This is solved if Jim is town and tracks ZU.
-Zombie Urist is scum, kills Shakerag. Solved by town medium (Shakerag says he wasn't blocked in deadchat.)
-If three of these four (aka the remaining scumteam) are scum, then they're pretty much free to just kill whoever.

The first part is really solid. The second part (the one you're in, and thus if you were scum would have a vested interest in not constructing well) not as much.

Today's lynch: Urgh. Probably Toaster, I don't like the potential that he could be a scum enchanter, and he was voting Flabort pretty heavy on Day 1.

Somebody mentioned earlier that we knew enchanters were enchanters because of something- I'm not seeing any number count on the votecounts, though. How do we know that I and Toaster aren't lying about our roles?
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1167 on: February 11, 2015, 04:27:56 am »

From a purely statistics standpoint, and assuming a mislynch as well as all non-scum players following the plan to the letter, there is a...

(3/10*2/9) + (3/10*2/9) * 100 = 13% chance of an instant loss (assuming I haven't done my math incorrectly and everyone has been faithful to their role claims).

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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1168 on: February 11, 2015, 04:31:25 am »

I don't like the idea of leaving both our claimed enchanters unguarded, to be honest. If I guarded one and Persus guarded the other, wouldn't that work just as well?
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Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1169 on: February 11, 2015, 04:32:22 am »

The problem is that it leaves Scripten unchecked.
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.
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