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Author Topic: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!  (Read 219689 times)

Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1170 on: February 11, 2015, 04:35:14 am »

War vets always reveal as 'kill' from telepaths, so the only way to make sure they are where they should be is to get them with a protected reporter or roleblock them. In fact- Jim's plan still leaves Scripten free to go kill whoever he wants, because his war vet thing is passive. I assume.

Mephansteras: If a War Vet is performing a night kill (via being a doppelganger) are people that interact with him still killed?
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.

Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1171 on: February 11, 2015, 04:58:15 am »

PFP because my net is dead and I'm using borrowed net for this

...I'm still baffled by how everyone thinks I'm on the scumteam due to my absence -_-
The only indication on why that's reasonable is the lacking scumhunting others are doing, which was discussed with NQT. :-\

I don't like the idea of leaving both our claimed enchanters unguarded, to be honest. If I guarded one and Persus guarded the other, wouldn't that work just as well?
Why the focus on Enchanter anyway? Like, over any other role?
From a purely statistics standpoint, and assuming a mislynch as well as all non-scum players following the plan to the letter, there is a...

(3/10*2/9) + (3/10*2/9) * 100 = 13% chance of an instant loss (assuming I haven't done my math incorrectly and everyone has been faithful to their role claims).


'Purely statistics' does not win Mafia games, mister.
That's the problem of Functionalism. That's only one half of the whole--something which I seriously nudge NQT to adjust his playstyle out of, as well as the problem regarding pure Quantitative analysis.
Also TolyK too, now that I recall the statistics lovers. THERE'S A REASON THERE IS CONTEXT. The LACK of context makes these posts just FLUFF and/or SEEMINGLY reasonable when it lacks a lot.
Ugh >_>

Oh. NQT
I only told you my N2 target. After D3 came about. I told that other single someone--your insistence that I told someone else is pure conjecture; BUT YOU HAD MY MISTAKEN PM which HAD that someone in the sender list.
<_<
Ugh.
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Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1172 on: February 11, 2015, 05:02:37 am »

...Why should I investigate Jim when he was already Telepath'd N1?
I understand that the N1 variation cannot be solved out of backtracing in night-actions due to the fact that mastahcheese DID die upon hitting ToonyMan (unless SOMEHOW the dead-flabort targeted MC and someone else killed ToonyMan and was protected :v which is a strange idea given all the narrowing down and specifying lately) but repeating it onto Jim instead of anyone else? (the 'instead of anyone else' is the crux of my question, actually)

Also, unvote. Will detail in said big post which has coincidentally been missing due to many annoying circumstances which coincidentally fall into linear path of 'annoying obstacle'.
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Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1173 on: February 11, 2015, 05:08:26 am »

Also that thing asked by NQT and any prior questions back onto D2 will be answered in yon big post. >_<
Aaaaa technicalities.
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1174 on: February 11, 2015, 05:40:18 am »

Quote from: Tiri-chan
'Purely statistics' does not win Mafia games, mister.

Neither does spamming emotes, to be fair.
Also, has my play thus far been 'purely statistical'? I don't believe it has. That analysis there is to demonstrate that the chance of us instantly losing due to circumstances is significantly lower than the chance of us not instantly losing.

Quote from: I-It's not like I like you or a-anythingrin
...I'm still baffled by how everyone thinks I'm on the scumteam due to my absence -_-

It's not your absence, Tiruin...


So it's been a week, and... Did you ever manage to get that post actually posted? I didn't notice it, if you did.
I mean, thankfully it seems that your net is no longer an enormous, 'I can't post anything, but here's all these posts saying that I can't post anything' sort of issue, but I hope it's good enough for us to see that big post before the end of the game.

Glad you're more active now, though~ <3

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Don't try to save yourself,
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1175 on: February 11, 2015, 05:41:40 am »

The first part is really solid. The second part (the one you're in, and thus if you were scum would have a vested interest in not constructing well) not as much.

As mentioned my role and Persus13's role in the plan are interchangeable. If you're not happy with my position in the second part then my place can be swapped with Persus13's.

Problems with second part:
-Tiruin & Jim Groovester are scumteam, Tiruin is free to scumkill whomever she wishes because she already knows what Jim's gonna do.

This is true even if I'm not scum. Tiruin is already free to do basically whatever. Knowing my role, it's easy to do a night kill and then fakeclaim that my goal was Find.

-Tiruin & Shakerag are scumteam, Shakerag tells Tiruin what Jim does while Tiruin kills someone.
-Shakerag & Zombie Urist are scumteam, Zombie Urist performs nightkill. This is solved if Jim is town and tracks ZU.

These are only true if Shakerag is both scum and has a tracking device to know where I'm going. Otherwise he has to guess and more than likely gets found out.

-If three of these four (aka the remaining scumteam) are scum, then they're pretty much free to just kill whoever.

Oh, come on. Of course it's going to have a flaw in the most pathological counterexample. Even in the worst case there's still going to be at least one honest result, however, so the scum team will still have to work around that.

We can't cover all our bases with the available night actions, but I think it's the best and most potentially informative course of action given what we have to work with.

Mephansteras: If a War Vet is performing a night kill (via being a doppelganger) are people that interact with him still killed?

I checked beforehand. The War Vet ability counts as a night action so a dopp War Vet can't night kill and kill all visitors.

...Why should I investigate Jim when he was already Telepath'd N1?

Because if I'm doing the night kill then my goal will show up as Kill.

It's not about getting extra information so much as making sure people are honest.

I don't like the idea of leaving both our claimed enchanters unguarded, to be honest. If I guarded one and Persus guarded the other, wouldn't that work just as well?

I'll grant you that if one of the enchanters is a dopp we do need to protect our votes.

This is sort of why I think it's a good idea to lynch one of them today.
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Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1176 on: February 11, 2015, 05:47:20 am »

Quote from: Tiri-chan
'Purely statistics' does not win Mafia games, mister.

Neither does spamming emotes, to be fair.
Also, has my play thus far been 'purely statistical'? I don't believe it has. That analysis there is to demonstrate that the chance of us instantly losing due to circumstances is significantly lower than the chance of us not instantly losing.
I don't use emotes to be my context for play though.
And no--I was poking at that one post. It is fluff. It was a (hopefully constructive) criticism on that kind of data gathering/receiving.

...Because you're trying to apply a loose percentage onto..this game. I get the analogy, but its very loose.

Quote from: Tiri-chan
'Purely statistics' does not win Mafia games, mister.

Neither does spamming emotes, to be fair.
Also, has my play thus far been 'purely statistical'? I don't believe it has. That analysis there is to demonstrate that the chance of us instantly losing due to circumstances is significantly lower than the chance of us not instantly losing.

Quote from: I-It's not like I like you or a-anythingrin
...I'm still baffled by how everyone thinks I'm on the scumteam due to my absence -_-

It's not your absence, Tiruin...

[spoiler=It Was Posts Like These, Made During Your 'Absence.']

Tiruin: YOu sure you don't want to replace out because of your net?
I can handle this and seriously punch UXLZ for the aggressive note in poking at my net 'because he could somewhat empathize'. -.-

Try loading up the 'new replies', then systematically mousewheel-tabbing the needed ones and then waiting for quite a few minutes for each single page to load, then more minutes to REPLY, then more minutes to PREVIEW. -_-

I can do more than just five posts if this was even faster, accommodating typing speed and knowledge of what to say beforehand.

Unlike your brief glimpse of 10 kbp/s, it is seen so common here that I assumed it was natural...until I heard of pretty much everyone else with their 10Mbp/s stuff. 100. 1GB...

And yes the WoT is going along nicely, thank you very much. :I

Woo. So net = ded for most of the day, and today was expressively tiring day .-.
Nonetheless meaning that I'm online in the wee hours of the morning x_x

Making up post!


So it's been a week, and... Did you ever manage to get that post actually posted? I didn't notice it, if you did.
I mean, thankfully it seems that your net is no longer an enormous, 'I can't post anything, but here's all these posts saying that I can't post anything' sort of issue, but I hope it's good enough for us to see that big post before the end of the game.

Glad you're more active now, though~ <3


When I said my words were messy, I mean things like these >_>
Its exam time here, and I didn't even note that down. And many things which came in between.
But I am guilty for not making that big post manifest though. That's obvious and I feel thoroughly embarrassed that it hurts. :-\ But thanks for understanding in a nice way, now.
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1177 on: February 11, 2015, 05:48:57 am »

Quote from: Jim
I'll grant you that if one of the enchanters is a dopp we do need to protect our votes.

This is sort of why I think it's a good idea to lynch one of them today.

I believe we can at least conclude that if one of them is a dopp the other isn't. (If they're both dopps the game is already over, anyway.)

Tiruin-chan, the lower part of your post's formatting is totally screwed.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
And saw what laid beneath,
Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1178 on: February 11, 2015, 06:04:49 am »

Quote from: Jim
I'll grant you that if one of the enchanters is a dopp we do need to protect our votes.

This is sort of why I think it's a good idea to lynch one of them today.

I believe we can at least conclude that if one of them is a dopp the other isn't. (If they're both dopps the game is already over, anyway.)
Err, have to prod you on that analogy--its a common notion in many Mafia games on that, but here, Meph is using a random generator.
So practically anything can happen (ie Two of same role on same team//two of same role being town . . .)
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1179 on: February 11, 2015, 06:06:37 am »

Ah, sorry, I didn't explain myself correctly. The conclusion we can make of 'If on is a dopp then the other isn't' comes from the fact that if they're both dopps we have already lost.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
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Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1180 on: February 11, 2015, 06:09:25 am »

Ah, sorry, I didn't explain myself correctly. The conclusion we can make of 'If on is a dopp then the other isn't' comes from the fact that if they're both dopps we have already lost.
...That's just 5 votes.
The problem is the uncertainty there of which, in the vote pattern (yes NQT, your strategy is useful and I used it), is actually correlational to a suitable pattern. I can't find any significant note yet but I've been tracing everyone prior to now-post.
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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1181 on: February 11, 2015, 06:11:23 am »

Ah, oops, yes, you're right. I was making a mistake with my calculations.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
And saw what laid beneath,
Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

Cheeetar

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1182 on: February 11, 2015, 06:20:46 am »

If both I and Toaster are doppelgangers, it takes just 1 mislynch and subsequent nightkill to reach vote parity between doppelgangers and non-doppelgangers. The possible existence of another third party makes matters more worrying.
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.

Deus Asmoth

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1183 on: February 11, 2015, 06:26:31 am »

Tiruin, my focus on the enchanters is because they make up a third of the votes at the moment. If they're both scum and we mislynch, we lose. If one of them is scum, we mislynch and the other isn't protected, we lose. If they're both town, I guess there's not really an issue.

Meph, if I'm protecting Persus and he blocks a kill, can I keep him alive or will his ability kill him regardless?
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Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Day 3 eats Psychics for breakfast
« Reply #1184 on: February 11, 2015, 07:34:43 am »

If both I and Toaster are doppelgangers, it takes just 1 mislynch and subsequent nightkill to reach vote parity between doppelgangers and non-doppelgangers. The possible existence of another third party makes matters more worrying.
Spoiler: Not really... (click to show/hide)


Meph, if I'm protecting Persus and he blocks a kill, can I keep him alive or will his ability kill him regardless?
I'm not Meph but I do understand the roles pretty well, so IMO here.
If you protect Persus and he blocks a kill--he dies, because HIS role was the affector (and it does not pass onto you)
If you protect Persus and he was TARGETED by a kill--he lives, because your role was the affector.
If you were targeted by a kill--you die, because you were...targeted by the kill being direct. Same with Persus unless you protect him.

Guardians aren't like bulletproof-types, IMO.
Quote
Guardian: This powerful bodyguard will prevent one kill attempt on the target that night. The Guardian is not killed by doing so.

Tiruin, my focus on the enchanters is because they make up a third of the votes at the moment. If they're both scum and we mislynch, we lose. If one of them is scum, we mislynch and the other isn't protected, we lose. If they're both town, I guess there's not really an issue.
I doubt the focus should be the necessity here. If both are scum--you've to watch the votecount to see Enchanter Stacking. That's the simple solution, unless a majority lynch-vote is formed, which is reasonable unanimously.
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