Based on what you said, each "state" is only one tick long regardless of anything? e.g Suppose my opponent is in recovery, if I wait 1 tick he will no longer be in recovery?
Attack stages (distant => starting => incoming => IMMINENT) are one "," tick/instant long for dwarves (who are the slowest out of dwarf/human/elf). It may be possible for an extremely fast character versus a very slow one to see more instants per stage. Again, maybe my imagination, but I recall once seeing starting for two ticks. That needs to be confirmed.
Recovery is different than the attack stage. You can wait many ticks in recovery. Let's do my dwarf (observer at talented) versus NPC elf. So, say NPC elf attacks my dwarf with axe, a hack. No other info is given.
I choose to block. Elf performs the hack and the shot is blocked. This begins the elf's recovery cycle which I check on by looking at the attack menu (shift + a)
Then I follow this by moving combat forward by one "," instant before checking again, where balance is regained.
One "," instant later, he is talking.
one "," instant later, he still speaks.
One "," instant later and recovery is now over.
One "," instant later and the elf resumes attacking.
So there were 4 instances of being in recovery (5 if you count coming out of it). Axe is [ATTACK_PREPARE_AND_RECOVER:3:3]. Did the elf actually take a heavy/precise attack, but my dwarf's observer was too low to notice it? How much does agility modify the penalty that heavy/precise cost? From the perspective of utility, it doesn't matter if his recovery was more or less. With each instance (4), I could have selected to attack and check the next menu to see if there were are any green shot opportunities. Instance 1 where the elf was regaining balance (the result of shield block) would have been the best time to attack and because elf and dwarf are similar in size possibly to charge attack. If there were no good choices in this recovery cycle, I'd let the cycle repeat itself.
Unproven, but I always tend to assume that if there were penalties for being in recovery, they were worse at the beginning and less to toward the end, when the NPC is coming out of it.
Also we do know that attack accuracy is affected by the state of the opponent, but how is it affected and to what degree? For example, if my opponents attack is "distant" and I check the attack menu and see that an attack to the head is "difficult, not very square" how will this change if I wait a tick, and my opponents attack is at "starting"? Or if I wait until my opponent is in recovery?
No idea about the first question. If you choose to attack during the NPC's attack stage, you are countering. If you wait the one "," instant from "distant" to "starting" the attack to the head may become better or worse. You can keep moving forward one "," instant through each stage until IMMINENT where you should act (unless you opt to auto/passively-defend which will be random). Once the NPC's attack is performed he/she will be in recovery and you can advance combat forward one "," instant and check the attack menu each instant once again.
So it seems observer is actually very important now.
But here's the thing. Observer is very useful, but having more of it which means having more information, only means you have more to work with, not that you will be more successful. In the end, you could just have novice observer, always choose the most cautious fight option, {quick attack + dodge away) and it will serve you as well as the player with more choice who chooses to be more selective when attacking. I say that as someone who prioritizes observer.