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Author Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée  (Read 1546885 times)

mainiac

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18105 on: May 19, 2016, 06:18:24 pm »

Isn't the incumbency victory rate like 90%? It's ludicrous

It's ludicrous that voters dont massively change their opinions every two years?  While the redistricting process has problems, this is a horrible metric of those problems.
Yeah, it's so much more believable that the population has self-sorted into preexisting political districts which have been drawn by legislators. I know *I* choose my home/apartment/tent-down-by-the-river based on it having an electoral representation that perfectly mirrors my own views.

Oh hey, nice to see you returning to intentionally misread something I said.  It's been too long man.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Orange Wizard

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18106 on: May 19, 2016, 06:21:51 pm »

I think anti-Gerrymandering rules are a needed component.
Honestly I'm not sure why anyone thought giving the people who were elected the power to decide who votes for them was a good idea in the first place

Of course though both sides will want to nudge the rules in their favor one way or another, so, how do you come up with a solution that is truly neutral and is difficult for either party to nudge the lines in their favor.
By getting an independent group to do it
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smjjames

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18107 on: May 19, 2016, 06:23:52 pm »

Sure, sure, euphemisms and whatnot. I'm sure there's some out there, but would you happen to know of any that's actually approaching decent?

'actually approaching decent' probably depends on your views, whether you're republican or democrat, and what you had for lunch.

Okay, the last one wasn't serious.

Anyway, wiki has a bunch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering#Changes_to_achieve_competitive_elections

I've heard of methods that use various computer algorithms though.
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smjjames

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18108 on: May 19, 2016, 06:26:38 pm »

Of course though both sides will want to nudge the rules in their favor one way or another, so, how do you come up with a solution that is truly neutral and is difficult for either party to nudge the lines in their favor.
By getting an independent group to do it

Like who? I suppose congress might object to anybody outside of the US doing it, and of course, if you do it from INSIDE the US, how do you make sure they are truly independent and neutral?

Maybe have the most left wing and most right wing person you can find go at it (and not kill each other) and hope it comes out somewhere in the middle.
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mainiac

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18109 on: May 19, 2016, 06:29:27 pm »

Like who?

Generally it is a bipartisan panel of judges with an even number.  An even number means that either side can block things if there is gerrymandering.  If that fails, it goes to federal courts.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 06:31:01 pm by mainiac »
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Orange Wizard

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18110 on: May 19, 2016, 06:34:28 pm »

In NZ the Electoral Commission does it. They're also the guys who oversee party finance/registration, organise referenda, and count votes.
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Andux

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18111 on: May 19, 2016, 06:35:53 pm »

I've heard of methods that use various computer algorithms though.
Shortest-splitline is a good one.
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Frumple

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18112 on: May 19, 2016, 06:36:16 pm »

Anyway, wiki has a bunch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering#Changes_to_achieve_competitive_elections
No, nnooo, not arguments to change it. I'm faintly aware of tons of marvelous ones of those, because the current state of things is generally considered bugnuts by basically everyone I've heard talking about it on both sides of the political divide, so you hear lots of things that make a good deal of sense basically regardless of what sense is to you. I'm wondering who out there is defending the current state of things.

Crux mentioned something, at least, which is nice even if somewhat insubstantial, so thanks crux :V
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smjjames

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18113 on: May 19, 2016, 06:39:28 pm »

In NZ the Electoral Commission does it. They're also the guys who oversee party finance/registration, organise referenda, and count votes.

Pfft, I probably wouldn't trust a government agency to do it right, unless maybe there was 100% total, utter, and complete transparency, as transparent as the air around us.
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Frumple

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18114 on: May 19, 2016, 07:05:49 pm »

Eeeehhh... you don't really have to trust them to do it right, exactly. Just more right than what it is now. Entirely can come later, if necessary. But any right is better than ain't right, and m'pretty sure most folks are of the opinion it ain't right at th'mo :P

Plus if they are using an algorithmic base, the algorithm can just be made public. That'd make it real easy to tell if someone's wiggling the lines any.
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Shadowlord

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18115 on: May 19, 2016, 07:12:10 pm »

One argument for gerrymandering which I've heard is that "fair" districtswould dilute minority votes, causing them to be unable to elect anyone to actually represent them.

Mind you, I'm not saying that I think that's a good argument, or a bad argument.
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Orange Wizard

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18116 on: May 19, 2016, 07:14:28 pm »

That's more an argument against FPTP voting than anything else, really.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18117 on: May 19, 2016, 07:21:31 pm »

Sure, sure, euphemisms and whatnot. I'm sure there's some out there, but would you happen to know of any that's actually approaching decent?
As Bay 12's own Gerrymander Commander, I accept this challenge.

Gerrymandering is both a necessity and an inevitability. Inevitable because any faction that refuses gerrymandering will be superseded by those that accept it, and necessary in order to create the conditions for the democratic process to exist. In an ungerrymandered democracy, the whims of the day allow for massive changes in the power holding groups of the nation during any and all elections, even if the shift in belief was something along the lines of an October Surprise or a pervasive rumor spread as truth.

In societies, the ruling government requires continuous stability, and that means that replacement of power blocks can only safely occur over generational spans. Otherwise, you'd see things like people who actually believe their own hype becoming more and more common in ruling bodies because their hypeness excites those dissatisfied with government performance. Donald Trump is amongst the greatest examples of what could happen when gerrymandering is not present to make electoral results more predictable.

Think of the McCarthyist era. Any incident of mass hysteria badly timed right before elections means the truest believers of that hysteria have a much better chance of replacing professional politicians. Even most politicians who engage in these kinds of things are really just doing so for votes, and so radical attempts at upending society will be mercifully rare no matter how much they use it rhetorically. If you want proof of that, look no further than the makeup of the Supreme Court since Roe v. Wade. If the main body of the Republicans really wanted to execute abortion doctors and put pregnant women who attempted abortions in comas until the birth of their child, then why didn't they? They've had control of Congress and the Presidency with wide authority to elect whomever they wanted, so why not use abortion law as a litmus test? The worst we got from them is Clarence Thomas, and even he gets to put on his act because he knows his dissents have no risk of becoming law.

That sort of political meta-stability is why we need gerrymandering. It's a check back against idiocy, and idiocy has fell a great many societies before America. The Supreme Court can get surprises, and on a bad day a determined idiot can get the Presidency, but as long as Congress stays stable it'll all mostly work out. We have a formula that has managed to retain the power of an empire that could have fallen a long time ago, and condemned a great number of people who are now alive and prosperous to suffering or death. The whole world relies on America to be the rock of politics, unshakable and never prone to levels of change that cause instability.

I'm not speaking against democracy here. Democracy is a great thing, and it contributes to that very stability because it lets the people who decide how society is run know what the public thinks. It's an excellent check-back against going all Caligula and assuming whatever you believe is all that matters in the responsibility of running a nation. But let's not pretend that the benefits of democracy mean we need to let everyone decide everything all the time. You've read Youtube comment sections, you know how that sort of thing can go.

The way we do things now doesn't suppress the people's power, it actualizes that power in a shockingly efficient manner. When the people want something, it gets done - at the right time. It's the nature of all political factions to say "faster, not good enough", but that doesn't mean that it's actually not good enough. Changing too fast ruins the potential of change. Take the liberalization of the USSR. If Gorbachev had known better, he could have avoided the hardliner coup attempt and the USSR would have stayed on the path of gradual quality of life improvement it had been experiencing. His commitment to radical reorganization lead us to the chaos of the 90's, where Russia was lead by Boris Yeltsin and oligarchs were allowed to run rampant. And look at it now! Putin is up his own ass rearranging the government as his personal fiefdom and like half of the Russian population thinks gay people should be lynched while the other half thinks they should only be stepped on until they stop acting gay.

Compare this to the USA, where same-sex marriage was legalized at a mere 55% approval, just high enough to let those opposed know they don't really have a chance to reverse it, and thus accelerating acceptance of LGBT further, at a rate that works. The same thing happened in pretty much all the individual states that offered equality and protection to LGBT folk at the same percentile.

And for that sort of thing, for that sort of total change in societal acceptance without regression or revolution you can thank our shadow helper gerrymandering, the check against the fourth branch of government, the public.
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mainiac

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18118 on: May 19, 2016, 07:27:03 pm »

The gradualist argument is interesting as an apology for gerrymandering.  However the moderation argument would seem to be backwards.  For instance Trump won with a plurality in the republican nomination which severely dilutes the split vote, that is more akin to gerrymandering then the approximately proportional democratic system. Of course I dont mean to be a dick and say "your devil's advocacy is wrong!"  I get that it's devil's advocacy.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 07:29:33 pm by mainiac »
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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RedKing

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18119 on: May 19, 2016, 07:34:00 pm »

Isn't the incumbency victory rate like 90%? It's ludicrous

It's ludicrous that voters dont massively change their opinions every two years?  While the redistricting process has problems, this is a horrible metric of those problems.
Yeah, it's so much more believable that the population has self-sorted into preexisting political districts which have been drawn by legislators. I know *I* choose my home/apartment/tent-down-by-the-river based on it having an electoral representation that perfectly mirrors my own views.

Oh hey, nice to see you returning to intentionally misread something I said.  It's been too long man.
Then enlighten me as to what you were actually saying. Because it *looks* like you're handwaving the incumbency rate and saying that it's not the fault of redistricting/gerrymandering.

Bestow your wisdom on an unwashed prole like myself.
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