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[PTTG??]

How much do you suppose that the addition of maternity leave will affect the actual birth rate?

[Reelya]

Well, when Australia brought in a thing called the "baby bonus" under the conservative party in 2001, fertility rates grew by 10% relative to a few years before (they had been in a downward trend), and the gender pay gap suddenly changed direction. It had been going down for decades, but has been going up for the last 15 years. The grant in that case started at $2500, or about 5 weeks median wages at the time.

Note, that Australia already has by law up to 12 months of unpaid maternity leave. The baby bonus basically made 5 weeks of that paid, which you'd expected would have similar economic effects to the 6-weeks of paid leave USA is considering.

There's also an issue with indexing paid government leave to your current income. The Australian Baby Bonus was a flat-rate for everyone, meaning it was especially helpful for low-income and unemployed women. Paying a woman for parental leave at the rate of their current income is anti-socialist in nature: it reinforces a wealth divide, and is basically middle-class welfare, at the expense of minimum-wage earning women who need it the most. If it was a flat rate, then you could probably give minimum wage women 12 weeks of paid leave instead of 6.

[Shadowlord]

You would think that paternity leave equal to maternity leave would even it out (except that expectations/pressure are different, apparently, so it might not matter - men may not take it even when it's available).

[Reelya]

You can look at Sweden, they have some months of the leave that is shared, and some months reserved for each parent. Most Swedish dads take their months off, yet almost all the "shared" leave is still used by the mother (Swedish mothers take about 75% of the total leave available despite strong incentives for dads).

The results of the Swedish systems is a much higher birth rate than the rest of Europe, and high employment of women. However, the ratio of full-time working men to women in Sweden is 2:1. So, you do good things in one area, it doesn't mean that all the metrics you expect to rise will actually rise.

[mainiac]

Holy shit assumptions of perfect correlation and perfect non-correlation abound.

[Reelya]

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/12/20/the-link-between-parental-leave-and-the-gender-pay-gap/
Not just one country, the correlation is pretty strong across the whole OECD. I was just citing one country's experience.

And it's just common sense that if you making life easier for people who have kids, more people will have kids. It's not a random correlation between those two things. And any other thing that happens because of having more kids will tend to happen more often (e.g. women taking time out of the workforce).

6 weeks parental leave will have measurable effects on the fertility rate. The effects of the $2500 (~5 weeks median pay) was estimated at increasing the fertility rate by 3.2% here. 1 in 30 extra mothers isn't huge, but it's not that small either. And 6 weeks pay is just that, 6 weeks pay. For a kid you'll be looking after for 18 years.

... And I got the date wrong for the introduction of the Baby Bonus. It was announced in the 2001 election, but didn't get rolled out until 2004. It just so happens that 2004 was also the year that the fertility rate bounced back from an all-time low, and the gender pay gap was at it's best ever point, but then bounced back, and started to skyrocket. So in fact, I've been underestimating the strength of the correlation between these three things.

[smjjames]

Word is that Trump is wearing a bulletproof vest now. Don't know if that was a decision that he made or something that the Secret Service insisted that he do.

Must be some really bad death threats out there if he has to wear a bulletproof vest. Would be odd to see Clinton wearing one though, unless the situation called for it of course.

edit: Apparently he's been wearing it since March when a protestor tried to rush the stage.

[Baffler]

It doesn't surprise me. It only takes one deranged individual acting "for the good of the country" without caring what happens next, and Trump catches more hate than most.

[Descan]

the only thing i'll say on the matter is that i would be extremely torn if something happened to trump

[Shadowlord]

I finally got around to reading about the unaoil bribery scandal and I noticed this:

Sarah Chayes witnessed the damage that flood of Western money — and the accompanying corruption — did in Afghanistan. When U.S. forces entered Kabul to oust the Taliban, Chayes was a reporter, covering the invasion for National Public Radio. She decided to stay and help rebuild, eventually opening a cooperative that produced soaps and body oils. She was one of very few Americans over the last 15 years who lived and worked with the Afghan people rather than behind the razor wire.

After just a few months, Chayes noticed people she thought of as moderate, normal folks expressing sympathy for the Taliban. She soon realized what was happening: the corruption that had been rampant at all levels since the U.S. invasion was fueling anger and unrest.

Chayes later began working for the U.S. military in Afghanistan, waging an internal war to persuade policymakers to focus on corruption. The issue ultimately reached the desk of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who largely dismissed it in a 2010 memo that remains classified.

[Geltor]

I finally got around to reading about the unaoil bribery scandal and I noticed this:

Sarah Chayes witnessed the damage that flood of Western money — and the accompanying corruption — did in Afghanistan. When U.S. forces entered Kabul to oust the Taliban, Chayes was a reporter, covering the invasion for National Public Radio. She decided to stay and help rebuild, eventually opening a cooperative that produced soaps and body oils. She was one of very few Americans over the last 15 years who lived and worked with the Afghan people rather than behind the razor wire.

After just a few months, Chayes noticed people she thought of as moderate, normal folks expressing sympathy for the Taliban. She soon realized what was happening: the corruption that had been rampant at all levels since the U.S. invasion was fueling anger and unrest.

Chayes later began working for the U.S. military in Afghanistan, waging an internal war to persuade policymakers to focus on corruption. The issue ultimately reached the desk of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who largely dismissed it in a 2010 memo that remains classified.

just toss it in the pile over there

[Vector]

In-Depth Interview with Bernie Sanders.

"How will you deal with the republican legislature?"
"They'll be gone by the time I'm president!"

"How will you break up the banks?"
"I don't run banks. I don't need to know that. I'll have the power."

wth bernie

[Jopax]

Power of Greyskull?

[Shadowlord]

sounds more like

> they'll be voted out of office by the political revolution if they continue being obstructionist

THAT WAS A REALLY LONG ARTICLE.

[redwallzyl]

sounds more like

> they'll be voted out of office by the political revolution if they continue being obstructionist

THAT WAS A REALLY LONG ARTICLE.

they will be the first with their backs to the wall when the revolution comes.