Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[mainiac]

Well I had to leave for 10 hours so brevity was the only choice available.  Culise has a pretty solid assessment.  I would just say one more thing though, the advice is perfectly general, not just related to this situation.  I think that Roleplaygeek had nothing but good intentions to insert himself into the conversation but the approach was flawed.

In political news, there was a poll out of Utah which showed Cruz with more then 50% of the vote.  If he gets more then 50% of the vote it's a winner take all state.  Kaisich was in second with 29% while trump was in third.  Given how low Trump polled and his high Utah unfavorables, if he gets the nomination, Utah would seem like an easy win for a republican third party challenger.

[smjjames]

Except that a third party split would guarantee that the election would get thrown to Clinton.

[PTTG??]

That assumes that Bernie Sanders doesn't run third party. I don't think he would.... but nobody suspected that Trump would ever be the front-runner, let alone the nigh-inevitable primary winner.

[smjjames]

I had that thought too (that maybe Sanders would run as Independent), but then I realized that by the time the convention comes around, the window for doing an independent run would have pretty much closed.

[Ghazkull]

but...has anyone ever become a president by running independently? I just checked the wikipedia list of american presidents and unless im reading that wrong only one of them ran as independent and won and that was on his second term.

[Frumple]

... so, what you're saying, is that the historical odds are more in their favor than they're in Clinton's, since there's been zero women presidents?

Also, obligatory xkcd

[smjjames]

... so, what you're saying, is that the historical odds are more in their favor than they're in Clinton's, since there's been zero women presidents?

Also, obligatory xkcd

Who said Clinton being a woman had anything to do with it? You're the only person in the last 6 posts who mentioned gender. Oh wait, nvm, I get it now.

Also, which president was it that ran as independent and won and that was on his second term?

[Descan]

Nevermind, he editted.

[mainiac]

Lincoln ran as the first presidential candidate for two different parties, Republican and Unionist.

[smjjames]

Lincoln ran as the first presidential candidate for two different parties, Republican and Unionist.

That was a rather special circumstance though.

[mainiac]

Yeah but Trump will be an even better president.  I expect at least two civil wars.  And at least two assassinations.

[Shadowlord]

I can't imagine Bernie would, but the Republicans who would rather throw the election to Hillary if it came to it...

Citation: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html?partner=msft_msn

[mainiac]

If they ran Cruz as a third party candidate but only put him on the ballot  in a few states, they could make it so that Trump can't win but possible that Clinton loses.  So for instance they would count on Cruz to win in Texas, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Wyoming and Nebraska.

The 270 to win 3 party map doesn't let you share maps but you can play around with it here if you want:
http://www.270towin.com/2016-independent-third-party-electoral-map/

My take away is this.  If Cruz could win those five states, he would have 64 electoral votes.  That pretty much guarantees that Trump can't win.  Trump would need to win a state like Minnesota or Wisconsin in addition to every single swing state. (including places like Pennsylvania and Michigan not generally considered swing states.)  If neither Trump nor Clinton (or Sanders) won 270 electoral votes, the house of representatives picks the president.  And because of extreme gerrymandering 2010 edition, republicans are certain to control the house.

I wonder what Trump would have to say if this happened...

[smjjames]

It could be worse than that actually: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/the-bizarre-130-year-old-law-that-could-determine-our-next-president-213645 (they're really just using Kasich as an example, it could be any governor).

It's also possible for both sides to not reach 270 without an independent intervening, just takes the right combination of states.

[lemon10]

The problem is that Cruz (almost certainly) wouldn't win in any states if he ran as a third party. All he is likely to do is give any state he seriously runs in to Clinton even if he focuses all his efforts on those 5.
Even a state that consistently votes red by 15% points would either end up going to Trump (assuming that Cruz doesn't have enough effect to lose him the vote) or Clinton (as ~43% of the vote is worth more then the 30-35% that the Cruz would end up with even if he significantly beats Trump).

It would be a good strategy to ensure that Trump loses though.