Latest Super Tuesday poll aggregates, Republicans first:
Alabama:Trump 38
Rubio 20.3
Cruz 14.7
Carson 10
Kasich 6.7
The trend in the last couple of days has been upward for Trump and Carson, down for Rubio and Kasich and flat for Cruz.
Alaska:No major polls in Alaska since Jan 12, so who the fuck knows? Maybe Palin?
Arkansas:Last major poll was a month ago, when Christie, Bush and Fiorina were still in the race. At the time, it was a 3-way split with Trump, Cruz, and Rubio with Cruz having a slight lead. Could be anybody's game now.
Georgia:Trump 36.2
Rubio 22.4
Cruz 22.2
Kasich 7.4
Carson 7.4
Trends: Trump and Carson up, Rubio and Cruz down, Kasich flat.
Massachusetts:Trump 45.3
Rubio 18.5
Kasich 15.3
Cruz 11
Carson 3
Trends: Trump up (latest poll had him at 51), Rubio up, Cruz and Kasich flat, Carson down
Minnesota:Last poll was from Jan 20, showed Rubio with a slight lead. Bush had 7%, which could swing the results depending on where those voters land.
Oklahoma:Trump 32.7
Rubio 21.3
Cruz 20.3
Carson 7.3
Kasich 6.3
Trends: Trump up, all others flat
Tennessee:Trump 40
Cruz 22
Rubio 19
Carson 9
Kasich 6
Trends: Not enough new polls to determine a trend.
Texas:Cruz 37.2
Trump 28.2
Rubio 18
Kasich 6.7
Carson 6
Trends: Cruz down slightly, Trump up, Rubio flat, Kasich and Carson slightly up
Vermont:Trump 32
Rubio 17
Cruz 11
Kasich 10
Carson 3
Trends: Not enough polls to determine trend.
Virginia:Trump 36.8
Rubio 22.3
Cruz 17.5
Kasich 7
Carson 6.5
Trends: Trump, Cruz, Rubio all up, Kasich flat, Carson down. The reason you're seeing so many candidates able to go up at the same time is that earlier polls had a lot of undecideds.
So, here's the outlook for each candidate:
Trump -- YUUUGE night. Will probably win every state but Texas and possibly Minnesota. For Trump, it's about the margin of victory and the geographic spread. Many of these states are "winner-take-most" in which the outright winner gets a chunk of delegates (about 1/2 to 2/3, and the remainder are awarded by Congressional district. If Trump wins all the districts, it effectively becomes a winner-take-all, as happened in South Carolina.
Cruz -- Will likely take Texas, which will keep him alive. If he somehow fails to win Texas, he's probably toast. Has to hope that he can beat Trump in more rural/evangelical sections of other states and so deny Trump the full yield of delegates. But he's running in 3rd in a number of Bible Belt states, which is not a good sign.
Rubio -- Unlikely to win any states (that Minnesota poll is old). But if he does well in urban areas, he could deny Trump some statewide sweeps, and if he can beat Cruz in a number of states, he cements his argument that he's the more viable anti-Trump candidate.
Kasich -- It's been a good run, but I think tonight is the Governor's swan-song. I know he wants to press on to Ohio, but he really needed to seriously contest MA and VT to have a shot. If he comes out of this thing with <10 delegates to show for it, I don't see how he continues.
Carson -- Expect another "This is just the beginning" speech after getting shut out yet again. I think Ben might not even be aware that you CAN drop out.