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[mainiac]

You, on the other hand, are literally the only person on the Internet invoking a "Sanders is a Jewish devil" meme.

Brah, did you even read my post?  Canaanite.  The sworn enemies of the Jews.



Your god is not amused, Shol'va!

[RedKing]

So even more nonsensical and "not a thing". Whereas the concern over Hillary's veracity is very much a thing. Just because you don't think it should be a thing doesn't mean that's it not out there, and won't influence votes. I thought you were the one concerned with electability?



Whatever...I'm tired of the shitposts, so let's move on to something worth discussing -- ITS SUPER TUESDAY, BITCHES!

[mainiac]

Just because you don't think it should be a thing doesn't mean that's it not out there, and won't influence votes. I thought you were the one concerned with electability?

I am, I would consider those negatives to be her biggest weakness.  I just think that all candidates have weaknesses and hers aren't particularly damaging.  It's a sad truth of american politics that all candidates lose ground on trustworthiness over time, unless they move to an apolitical position.  It prevents her from being an overwhelmingly popular candidate like Obama or Eisenhower but I dont exactly see an abundance of such candidates around.

[Frumple]

So even more nonsensical and "not a thing".

Huh? No, there's actually quite a bit questioning sander's jewish beliefs, apparently. Double checking to make sure I wasn't misremembering sanders as identifying as jewish gave me a first page full of things asking whether he actually was one, despite his own claims. Definitely seems to be a bit of blowback vs bernie vis a vis jews.

[mainiac]

I dont think that Sander's jewishness is going to matter.  The people who wouldn't vote for a jew very strongly overlap with the people who wouldn't vote for a democrat.  Thanks Nixon!

[SirQuiamus]

How very, very convenient for Bernie...

Coincidence? I THINK NOT!

Obviously he planned this whole thing out when he became Jewish.

Correction: Hillary Rodham Clinton planned this whole thing out well before she became Jewish, changed her name to Bernadette Sanders, built a Hillary-bot in a secret FEMA facility, gave birth to the puppies, traveled back in time to shoot Kennedy and frame Ted Cruz as the Zodiac Killer, and underwent a satanic sex-change ritual to become Bernie Sanders.

I'm pretty sure we've gone over the established facts before...

[smjjames]

I thought the Jews and Canaanites were the same? Or maybe Canaanite got applied to the Jews later or something. *shrug*

Anyways, yeah, lets stop with the shitposting.

[mainiac]

Anyways, yeah, lets stop with the shitposting.

NEVER!

Correction: Hillary Rodham Clinton planned this whole thing out well before she became Jewish, changed her name to Bernadette Sanders, built a Hillary-bot in a secret FEMA facility, gave birth to the puppies, traveled back in time to shoot Kennedy and frame Ted Cruz as the Zodiac Killer, and underwent a satanic sex-change ritual to become Bernie Sanders.

I'm pretty sure we've gone over the established facts before...

I feel like you are ommitting something about forging Hawaiian birth certificates.

[SirQuiamus]

I feel like you are ommitting something about forging Hawaiian birth certificates.

You believe in Hawaii? Dude, that shit is less believable than the Maryland hoax.

Anyways, yeah, lets stop with the shitposting.

Yeah.

E: Politico is already talking about the Bern in the past tense: "How Sanders went from socialist also-ran to nearly overthrowing the Democratic Party." I may be a dirty European, but right now I'm crying red-white-blue American Commie Tears.

[RedKing]

Latest Super Tuesday poll aggregates, Republicans first:

Alabama:

Trump 38
Rubio 20.3
Cruz 14.7
Carson 10
Kasich 6.7

The trend in the last couple of days has been upward for Trump and Carson, down for Rubio and Kasich and flat for Cruz.

Alaska:

No major polls in Alaska since Jan 12, so who the fuck knows? Maybe Palin?

Arkansas:

Last major poll was a month ago, when Christie, Bush and Fiorina were still in the race. At the time, it was a 3-way split with Trump, Cruz, and Rubio with Cruz having a slight lead. Could be anybody's game now.

Georgia:

Trump 36.2
Rubio 22.4
Cruz 22.2
Kasich 7.4
Carson 7.4

Trends: Trump and Carson up, Rubio and Cruz down, Kasich flat.

Massachusetts:

Trump 45.3
Rubio 18.5
Kasich 15.3
Cruz 11
Carson 3

Trends: Trump up (latest poll had him at 51), Rubio up, Cruz and Kasich flat, Carson down

Minnesota:

Last poll was from Jan 20, showed Rubio with a slight lead. Bush had 7%, which could swing the results depending on where those voters land.

Oklahoma:

Trump 32.7
Rubio 21.3
Cruz 20.3
Carson 7.3
Kasich 6.3

Trends: Trump up, all others flat

Tennessee:

Trump 40
Cruz 22
Rubio 19
Carson 9
Kasich 6

Trends: Not enough new polls to determine a trend.

Texas:

Cruz 37.2
Trump 28.2
Rubio 18
Kasich 6.7
Carson 6

Trends: Cruz down slightly, Trump up, Rubio flat, Kasich and Carson slightly up

Vermont:

Trump 32
Rubio 17
Cruz 11
Kasich 10
Carson 3

Trends: Not enough polls to determine trend.

Virginia:

Trump 36.8
Rubio 22.3
Cruz 17.5
Kasich 7
Carson 6.5

Trends: Trump, Cruz, Rubio all up, Kasich flat, Carson down. The reason you're seeing so many candidates able to go up at the same time is that earlier polls had a lot of undecideds.



So, here's the outlook for each candidate:

Trump -- YUUUGE night. Will probably win every state but Texas and possibly Minnesota. For Trump, it's about the margin of victory and the geographic spread. Many of these states are "winner-take-most" in which the outright winner gets a chunk of delegates (about 1/2 to 2/3, and the remainder are awarded by Congressional district. If Trump wins all the districts, it effectively becomes a winner-take-all, as happened in South Carolina.

Cruz -- Will likely take Texas, which will keep him alive. If he somehow fails to win Texas, he's probably toast. Has to hope that he can beat Trump in more rural/evangelical sections of other states and so deny Trump the full yield of delegates. But he's running in 3rd in a number of Bible Belt states, which is not a good sign.

Rubio -- Unlikely to win any states (that Minnesota poll is old). But if he does well in urban areas, he could deny Trump some statewide sweeps, and if he can beat Cruz in a number of states, he cements his argument that he's the more viable anti-Trump candidate.

Kasich -- It's been a good run, but I think tonight is the Governor's swan-song. I know he wants to press on to Ohio, but he really needed to seriously contest MA and VT to have a shot. If he comes out of this thing with <10 delegates to show for it, I don't see how he continues.

Carson -- Expect another "This is just the beginning" speech after getting shut out yet again. I think Ben might not even be aware that you CAN drop out.

[Helgoland]

Is it wrong that I'm actively rooting against Rubio? That guy appears to be the last potential threat to another four years of a Blue White House.

[RedKing]

I'm working on a little spreadsheet to give some ideas of delegate counts based on these totals and the arcane delegate proportioning systems, and a metric fuckton of guesswork.

[smjjames]

Yeah, Carson seems too delusional and/or disconnected from reality to see how badly he is losing, he even keeps saying that 'theres going to be an awakening and people will see me as the true candidate'. He's also said again that he ain't dropping out.

Kasich is just being both stubborn and hoping for a win in his home state.

It sort of seems like Rubio might get Minnesota, or at least he is hoping to get that.

Also, Sanders has said that he'll take it all the way to the convention. We probably won't see a contested convention, but we'll just have to see.

[smjjames]

I'm working on a little spreadsheet to give some ideas of delegate counts based on these totals and the arcane delegate proportioning systems, and a metric fuckton of guesswork.

538 has an excellent summary of them.

[penguinofhonor]

Woah, I thought Ben Carson had dropped out already.