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[Rolan7]

Pff, that pledge was in September.  Trump only lasted till November before admitting that he may break it (because of the party treating him unfairly).
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2015/11/23/trump-actually-i-may-not-abide-by-my-no-independent-run-pledge-n2084060

[MetalSlimeHunt]

At this point, the only way Trump runs as independent is if he wins the primary and then gets disqualified by the party leadership or something. He doesn't have to consider being an independent, he's got the Republicans firmly gripped by their smooth old man balls.

[smjjames]

Didn't the Republicans do that noone is gonna run as an Independent pledge thing?

Peter Noone is going to run?  Wikipedia says he was born in England.

All the republican candidates in the debates pledged not to run as independents but that doesn't mean there is no one they couldn't offer as a third party challenger.  Scott Walker seems like their best high profile candidate who didn't enter the race so he didn't make the pledge.

*ahem* He WAS in the race, but dropped out in September.

I wouldn't call him high profile or best, considering he didn't make it to Iowa.

[Loud Whispers]

At this point, the only way Trump runs as independent is if he wins the primary and then gets disqualified by the party leadership or something. He doesn't have to consider being an independent, he's got the Republicans firmly gripped by their smooth old man balls.

Surely they'd be as wrinkly as the trunk or the junk of an elephant?

[hector13]

Didn't the Republicans do that noone is gonna run as an Independent pledge thing?

Peter Noone is going to run?  Wikipedia says he was born in England.

All the republican candidates in the debates pledged not to run as independents but that doesn't mean there is no one they couldn't offer as a third party challenger.  Scott Walker seems like their best high profile candidate who didn't enter the race so he didn't make the pledge.

*ahem* He WAS in the race, but dropped out in September.

I wouldn't call him high profile or best, considering he didn't make it to Iowa.

He was actually highly regarded by the T Party and the Republican's in general, but ran out of money and popularity, so dropped out to save face. Folk in Wisconsin were also up in arms about him running while being governor. I believe petitions were started.

He's also a self-serving nepotistic twat. /personal taste

[mainiac]

At this point, the only way Trump runs as independent is if he wins the primary and then gets disqualified by the party leadership or something. He doesn't have to consider being an independent, he's got the Republicans firmly gripped by their smooth old man balls.

It's not quite a foregone conclusion.  The states that hold republican primaries between the 1st and 14th of march award their delegates proportionally (like the democrats do for all states).  That means that the divided field wont help Trump for the next 15 days.  If he wins 35% of the vote on Super Tuesday that leaves 65% of the vote that goes to delegates who can block his nomination at the party convention.

So suppose that in the next two weeks, Trump takes 35% of the vote on average.  That means there are 608 non-trump delegates.  Add to this some of the 150 unpledged republican delegates (who are probably very much in the Rubio camp).  1237 are needed to force a contested convention so not-trump needs to win 450 delegates in the winner takes all states to get a contested convention.  There are 1213 delegates to win in the winner take all states so they would need to win 38% of those.  Just a few victories would do it and some states he might lose are, Ohio, California, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina.  So Trump could in fact win 40 states and still wind up with a contested convention.  I really, really suspect that the GOP would side with Rubio or a dark horse candidate (or Kasich!).

I'm not saying it's certain, I'm saying that a plurality doesn't win you the nomination like a majority does.  And Trump losing after a contested convention seems like exactly the sort of thing that would make him go independent.  Which the GOP might be okay with because it's less damaging to their brand.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Possible, but unlikely. I also doubt the average of 35%, that's heavily conservative in light of Trump nearly getting 50% in Nevada.

[mainiac]

Possible, but unlikely. I also doubt the average of 35%, that's heavily conservative in light of Trump nearly getting 50% in Nevada.

Nevada was also his best result.  He got 25% in Iowa, 35% in New Hampshire and 32% in South Carolina.  Weighted by delegates his performance has been 34.5% so far.  Some states will be more favorable to Trump but there's also Texas which is worth nearly 1/3rd of the Super Tuesday delegates and where Trump is at 26% on the 538 tracker.

That's right people, TEXAS is going to save us from the crazy racist.

[smjjames]

Yeah, it sort of looks like Cruz has Texas in the bag, though it's a threatened bag, so, I don't see him dropping anytime. Rubio certainly isn't and would have the funding, Kasich wants to get to Ohio. Carson is both delusional enough to think that the tide will turn and he also wants to metaphorically give the middle finger to the establishment, so....

...I was originally joking about Trump winning the Republican nomination, but I've actually become quite terrified of the prospect. All it takes is 1 terrorist attack before election day for Trump to win the general. This is a man who gives no two fucks about the Bill of Rights. He's scarier than anything else the Republican or Democrat Party could produce for that reason alone.

Please don't taunt Murphy.

Anyhow, I wonder how many states are required at minimum to be considered a nominee at the democratic convention.... *goes to try and find out*

[mainiac]

Anyhow, I wonder how many states are required at minimum to be considered a nominee at the democratic convention.... *goes to try and find out*

The states dont matter very much in the democratic party because all the states award pretty much proportionally.  It's pretty much impossible not to secure with 50% of the votes and it's very difficult to secure with less then 46% or so.  Because conservative generally states have a higher votes to number of democratic primary voters ratio there is some wiggle room here but it's a good rule of thumb.

[Loud Whispers]

There is literally no option in American politics right now that does not rustle jimmies

I am content with this universe

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Rubio doesn't really rustle very much. He's just a boring asshole.

[smjjames]

Anyhow, I wonder how many states are required at minimum to be considered a nominee at the democratic convention.... *goes to try and find out*

The states dont matter very much in the democratic party because all the states award pretty much proportionally.  It's pretty much impossible not to secure with 50% of the votes and it's very difficult to secure with less then 46% or so.  Because conservative generally states have a higher votes to number of democratic primary voters ratio there is some wiggle room here but it's a good rule of thumb.

The republicans have a minimum of 8 to be considered a nominee, I'm just wondering if theres something like that for the democrats.

[mainiac]

The republicans have a minimum of 8 to be considered a nominee, I'm just wondering if theres something like that for the democrats.

I had not heard of that.  Wouldn't that make a dark horse candidate impossible?  I have heard people talk about dark horse candidates.

[smjjames]

The republicans have a minimum of 8 to be considered a nominee, I'm just wondering if theres something like that for the democrats.

I had not heard of that.  Wouldn't that make a dark horse candidate impossible?  I have heard people talk about dark horse candidates.

It's been in reference to brokered/contested conventions. Can't seem to find anything on a minmum for democrats, there probably isn't one.

edit: Looks like it's a new thing from the last presidential election season: http://time.com/4059030/republican-primary-calendar-2016-nomination-convention/

"What about Rule 40? This obscure rule passed to prevent Paul from being nominated on the convention floor in 2012, requires that candidates win a majority of eight delegations to be entered into nomination and have their delegates counted. It is almost certain to be amended in the week leading up to the GOP convention, depending on circumstances. (For instance, the minimum could move higher, in the case of a clear nominee, or lower, if there’s a contested convention.)"