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Author Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée  (Read 1572848 times)

mainiac

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12795 on: February 27, 2016, 02:29:10 pm »

Quote from: Times
free public college for all Americans would cost $70 billion a year.

I got interested in this number and googled a bit.  This appears to be the report that prompts this statement: http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2015/2015012.pdf

This report found that student tuitions for 4 year degrees added up to $55 billion in 2013.  2 year degree tuition totaled $10 billion and less then two year degree tuition totaled $400 million.  There was also another $22 billion in federal grant money which already defrays tuition expenses. (This disregards private for profit education which overwhelmingly isn't educational, is corrupt and should be completely abolished without hesitation).  In addition there is tuition at graduate programs which has been rapidly growing in recent years as masters programs, which typically have tuition unlike PhD programs, have become more common. So 70 billion on top of existing federal grant money.  However...

While tuition was perhaps 70 billion more, total operating expenses were about 183 billion in 2013. And while capital expenses are very justly maligned you do need some infrastructure investments.  Colleges could cut back on prestige projects but most of those 120 billion dollars a year aren't going anywhere.  So it's actually 70 billion dollars on top of existing grant money and on top of existing capital grants and tax benefits to public colleges and universities.  For instance public colleges and universities run very profitable hedge funds which are tax exempt and that tax exemption means more funds for their capital expenses.

And then of course there are the state grants.  The reason why these tuition are so low is because state governments still subsidize a hefty chunk of education.  If you make tuition free, states are naturally going to want to shift as much of the expense onto the federal government as possible.  It's possible to design something like medicare that addresses these cost sharing issues but it's not a trivial matter of just ponying up the tuition money.  For instance states subsidize a lot of need based financial aid.  Free tuition removes the "need" part of that.  So states wouldn't fund those programs and the cost would shift to tuition, i.e. the federal government.

And there is the matter of cost controls.  States have some ability to meddle with universities and pressure them to keep costs down.  The department of education does not.  So now the states are pushing for universities to provide the best education the federal government would pay for.

All in all, I think the much better number to start from is the "Total revenues and other sources" figure.  $317 billion a year.  Setting aside the matter of cost inflation, let's suppose that the federal government is going to pick of 54% of those costs*.  The rest are going to be funded by state matching funds (like medicaid uses), endowment operating profits, alumni donations and the like.  That leaves 171 billion dollars in federal costs a year.

This is all before considering that if you make college education free, more people are going to pursue it.  And they are going to seek more expensive education.  I can say from my personal experience that I couldn't afford the college I was at so I dropped out and then re-enrolled in a much cheaper program.  If my tuition was free, I would have stayed at the more expensive program.  So costs are going to be higher for that reason.  64% of americans ages 25-29 have some college and 34% have a bachelors degree.  40% of students dropout.  That's a lot of people not getting degrees.  I'm going to wildly guess that college costs rise 25% as more students go to school and stay in school.  So now we are up to $213 billion.

Now let's compare that to "Some three years ago, the Iraq war was estimated to have cost us $2 trillion dollars."  2003-2013 is 10 years so the comparison of free tuition for 10 years is by my educated guess, about 2 trillion dollars in federal expenses and 1.4 trillion dollars in state expenses.  So it would in fact have been more expensive then the Iraq war.  There is a pretty damn convincing argument that the money would have been better spent.  But the notion that free tuition would be only 70 billion a year or 700 billion a decade is just plain wrong.

* I assumed 10% is funded by non-government sources and the same 60-40 cost split that exists in medicaid.

Thanks to mainiac for urging a good 30% of the Democratic Party to find another party, because "The Party DGAF bout your issues, we've got an election to win!"

No, that's what you should do if you can't stand the idea that the democratic party wants to win the election.  What I would recommend you do is organize people, get out the vote, seek the most qualified candidates you can and work to convince people of the righteousness of your cause.  What I wouldn't suggest you do is bitch that the game is rigged because you lost.

Well, to be honest most of the pro-election reform crows has this as its main argument. Mainiac's just stating it rather bluntly.

That is the argument I presented for the specific issue of bitching about superdelegates existing.  Someone said no one has presented a justification of superdelegates.  Well now you have my justification of superdelegates.

My argument in favor of Clinton is that I think she would be a better president.  Her campaign platform is better IMHO and I think she would do a better job fighting congress that is going to present scorched earth opposition to any democrat.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2016, 02:44:30 pm by mainiac »
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Shadowlord

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12796 on: February 27, 2016, 03:00:28 pm »

Thanks for the in-depth analysis, mainiac.
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smjjames

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12797 on: February 27, 2016, 03:22:11 pm »

*roots/tentacles/whatever representing European politics burst into the AmeriPol thread*

The former leader of Frances right-wing movement endorses Trump No idea about the current leader (who is the daughter of that guy). :P
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mainiac

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12798 on: February 27, 2016, 03:24:45 pm »

It really makes sense to think of Trump as an American version of the European right-nationalist parties.  Loosely aligned with mainstream conservativism, tapping into xenophobia and vague on the agenda.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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RedKing

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12799 on: February 27, 2016, 03:38:01 pm »

@mainiac: what I see is a very simple divide:

On one side, people (diehard Party loyalists and apparatchiks) who see the overarching goal of the Democratic Party as winning elections.

On the other side, people (progressives and indepent-minded liberals) who the goal of the Democratic Party as advancing the causes and policies supported by its members. Of which, winning elections is a big part, but not the sole raison d'être of the Party.

Clinton is definitely of the first camp. Sanders seems to be of the second camp.

Idealism without pragmatism is ineffectual utopianism. But pragmatism without idealism is just self-serving cynicism. It's the mentality that rejects the horrid only because of the "optics" and the polling numbers.
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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12800 on: February 27, 2016, 03:43:57 pm »

On the other side, people (progressives and indepent-minded liberals) who the goal of the Democratic Party as advancing the causes and policies supported by its members. Of which, winning elections is a big part, but not the sole raison d'être of the Party.
Isn't the goal of any party to advance the causes and policies of its programme, not the collective will of its members (however you define that)? A party may have a democratic internal structure, but that's hardly a must.

Also, winning elections is kinda essential to implementing policies. If you want an example of where 'ideological purity > political pragmatism' can lead, look at the split between Communists and Social Democrats in Germany.
Short version: Hitler. It leads to Hitler.
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lemon10

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12801 on: February 27, 2016, 03:56:39 pm »

Thanks to mainiac for urging a good 30% of the Democratic Party to find another party, because "The Party DGAF bout your issues, we've got an election to win!"

No, that's what you should do if you can't stand the idea that the democratic party wants to win the election.  What I would recommend you do is organize people, get out the vote, seek the most qualified candidates you can and work to convince people of the righteousness of your cause.  What I wouldn't suggest you do is bitch that the game is rigged because you lost.
That is the issue. The fact that your candidate can win the vote by 700 elected delegates and still lose the actual primary, despite the people choosing a candidate very clearly. Now, obviously the democratic party wouldn't be stupid enough to do that, and obviously that won't be the case in this election (as sanders will probably lose even if the super delegates chose him), but the fact that the choices of 716 people can overturn the results of a 35 million nation wide primary really upsets people.

And this isn't just an issue with this election with Sanders. It was an issue in 2008, and is going to be an issue in every single election where it is close enough that the superdelegates could overturn the results for a candidate more liked by the establishment.

Honestly, I find superdelegates rather odd in that they are completely useless. If they were to actually overturn the results of the election (even for someone that would be obviously unelectable in the general election) it would generate enough resentment and backlash within the electorate that the "electable" person who they choose would lose quite handily.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12802 on: February 27, 2016, 03:57:35 pm »

--NVM, misread--
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mainiac

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12803 on: February 27, 2016, 05:12:40 pm »

That is the issue. The fact that your candidate can win the vote by 700 elected delegates and still lose the actual primary, despite the people choosing a candidate very clearly.

Yes, it's theoretically possible.  However it's not actually happening.

In order for a candidate to lose by 700 pledged delegates and still go against them, almost every single elected high office democrat in the country would need to actively want to keep them from winning along with almost every single cordinator in the democratic party and every past democratic president and vice president.  All that would be enough for someone to need 59% of the delegates to win.  So any kind of overwhelming popular support would still win them the race.  That is not what is happening.  Sanders has nothing close to 59% popular support, nor close to 100% establishment opposition.  What is happening is that the person who actually represents the democratic party could get enough support to break a tie.

The level of loathing you are talking about is basically Larouche or Trump levels of loathing.

@mainiac: what I see is a very simple divide:

On one side, people (diehard Party loyalists and apparatchiks) who see the overarching goal of the Democratic Party as winning elections.

And I think that you are constructing a strawman.  You are lumping together 90% of the democratic house and senate caucuses and democratic governors.  You are saying basically every elected democrat cares about nothing but winning elections.  And that's just plain wrong.  Look at Obamacare for instance.  The democrats paid a heavy price at the ballot box for getting that legislation through.  They did it anyway.  Look at the 1994 budget act where they balanced the budget at the cost of losing congress in the next election.  Those are the two big instances where the choice was between elections and policy and they chose policy both times.

The reason I support the democrats is because there is a direct relationship between how many democrats are in office and the quality of government we get.
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lemon10

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12804 on: February 27, 2016, 05:36:22 pm »

That is the issue. The fact that your candidate can win the vote by 700 elected delegates and still lose the actual primary, despite the people choosing a candidate very clearly.

Yes, it's theoretically possible.  However it's not actually happening.

In order for a candidate to lose by 700 pledged delegates and still go against them, almost every single elected high office democrat in the country would need to actively want to keep them from winning along with almost every single cordinator in the democratic party and every past democratic president and vice president.  All that would be enough for someone to need 59% of the delegates to win.  So any kind of overwhelming popular support would still win them the race.  That is not what is happening.  Sanders has nothing close to 59% popular support, nor close to 100% establishment opposition.  What is happening is that the person who actually represents the democratic party could get enough support to break a tie.

The level of loathing you are talking about is basically Larouche or Trump levels of loathing.
Yes, I know that it would never happen at anywhere near that numbers (which if you actually read my post, I clearly stated). But the issue is the fact that if the party decided to (and yes, I'm also aware that the democratic party establishment couldn't be that unified even if frontrunner was revealed to be a secret ISIS agent), it could still choose a candidate long after its clear who the voters want.

And again, dislike of the superdelegate system isn't about Sanders. This isn't about the fact that they will overturn his popular mandate, because he doesn't have one and no one here is saying that he does. This is about the fact that they can overturn the vote at all.
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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12805 on: February 27, 2016, 05:40:57 pm »

This is all before considering that if you make college education free, more people are going to pursue it.  And they are going to seek more expensive education.  I can say from my personal experience that I couldn't afford the college I was at so I dropped out and then re-enrolled in a much cheaper program.  If my tuition was free, I would have stayed at the more expensive program.  So costs are going to be higher for that reason.  64% of americans ages 25-29 have some college and 34% have a bachelors degree.  40% of students dropout.  That's a lot of people not getting degrees.  I'm going to wildly guess that college costs rise 25% as more students go to school and stay in school.  So now we are up to $213 billion.
What's with the assumption that there should be limitless spots? There should be free education up to a number of students required by the job market (so GL getting your Literature degree paid by the gov). Entry exams and highschool performance decide who gets these free spots. The point is to provide education based on talent rather than money, which increases efficiency of not just the universities (there'd be less drop-outs) but also the economy as a whole because the average competence level of the workforce would rise.
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mainiac

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12806 on: February 27, 2016, 05:45:57 pm »

it could still choose a candidate long after its clear who the voters want.

Except they can't.  There are five times as many pledged delegates as superdelegates.  If the voters clearly side with a candidate, there is nothing the superdelegates can do even if they are unanimous.

What's with the assumption that there should be limitless spots?

Well I guess you can start denying affluent white kids college admission to make room for talented minorities and disadvantaged whites.  It would be politically "courageous" however, because of how easy it would be to describe in such a manner.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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RedKing

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12807 on: February 27, 2016, 05:58:40 pm »

And I think that you are constructing a strawman.  You are lumping together 90% of the democratic house and senate caucuses and democratic governors.  You are saying basically every elected democrat cares about nothing but winning elections.
Replace "every" with "most" and you would have me pegged correctly.

Quote
The reason I support the democrats is because there is a direct relationship between how many democrats are in office and the quality of government we get.
We'll have to agree to disagree on that one. Or rather, disagree on the root cause -- I would argue that more Democrats is only a good thing insofar as it means less Republicans in our zero-sum political system. As I recall, Obama had a Democratic trifecta going for him from 2008-2010, and yet they still struggled to get shit done.
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lemon10

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12808 on: February 27, 2016, 06:08:24 pm »

it could still choose a candidate long after its clear who the voters want.

Except they can't.  There are five times as many pledged delegates as superdelegates.  If the voters clearly side with a candidate, there is nothing the superdelegates can do even if they are unanimous.
I didn't say unanimously, I said clearly.
The voters clearly sided with Obama in 2008, yet the superdelegates could have easily overturned his nomination (as he only had 102 more regular delegates then Clinton). They didn't because it would have been stupid, but it was well within their power, and still would have been even if the difference was 5 times as great.
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mainiac

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Re: Ted Cruz's Adult Coloring Book and Chill 2016 Megathread
« Reply #12809 on: February 27, 2016, 06:17:03 pm »

I didn't say unanimously, I said clearly.

I also said clearly.

The voters clearly sided with Obama in 2008,

Obama won 48.1% of the popular vote to 48.0% for Clinton.  I dont think there was any clear mandate from the voters.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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