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[RedKing]

On the topic of election polls, I recently listened to a very interesting NPR talk about polling that might shed some light on some of the interesting polls we've been seeing. Apparently this particular election is a horrible year for polling, previous elections had a large number of people that responded to polls, but due to the recent outbreak of cell phone usage and cell phone only people the amount of people that are actually reached and respond to polls has dropped an absurd amount. According to the statistics by the guy from the stat's center that they were listening too, current response numbers have dropped from about 80% of all people questioned responding 8 years ago down to around 8% of people polled actually responding. He also noted that in general for election polls about the amount of responses that they need is around 10%. This bias also hits younger voters double; since they are much more often the ones that are cell phone only and thus are not actually polled often (and accounts at least somewhat for differences of candidates with strong younger bases).

He went on to emphasize that at least for all of the polls that were passing through his statistical gathering organization for this particular election year, very few of them actually had enough data of the right kinds to have any real connections to what the final elections are going to look like, which is really messing up the presses since in the vast majority of past elections the polls have had enough data to be somewhat accurate, to the point that press organizations have come to depend on them.

The big takeaway was that unlike past elections (and future elections too most likely, he mentioned many people working to solve the problem currently) in this particular election polls really have very little connection to the actual way people are going to vote, even less so than usual, and he begged people to only take them at the barest of guidelines to the way things are actually going to turn out, if that.

Just thought it was something interesting that I should share.

They said the same thing in 2012. And 2014. Not saying that that there isn't some truth to it, but it's not like 2016 was the year when suddenly everyone got a cell phone and cut their landlines. Or the year when people stopped answering calls from numbers they don't recognize. (I do, only because I *have* to for work. And even then, I often will let it go to voicemail if it's not from an area I'd expect a call from like California or Oregon or Bangalore or Chennai.)

Polls will often try to adjust for that by looking at the responses of particular demographics and then correcting their sample to a theoretical "perfect" demographic sample. But that can amplify errors. Let's say you only get 10 college kids out of your sample of 400 voters. Demographically, they're being underrepresented. Let's say you decide that 40 would be more representative for that particular polling region. You could just quadruple the results, but what if you have one person who's baked and polls for Carson just for the lulz? Now you have four votes for Carson (a full 1% of your sample) that aren't really there. Minor overall, but in close races that phantom 1% can swing a race.

[i2amroy]

They said the same thing in 2012. And 2014. Not saying that that there isn't some truth to it, but it's not like 2016 was the year when suddenly everyone got a cell phone and cut their landlines. Or the year when people stopped answering calls from numbers they don't recognize. (I do, only because I *have* to for work. And even then, I often will let it go to voicemail if it's not from an area I'd expect a call from like California or Oregon or Bangalore or Chennai.)

The point that the expert was trying to emphasize was that while this trend has been going on for a while, this is the first election year where the input numbers have dropped below the ~10%ish threshold value where the numbers really start to become very inaccurate. He mentioned that in previous election years the problem existed, yes, but that it was still at levels where it didn't really matter, statistically. This was the first election year that (at least for the data going through his polling center) the problem had grown to the extent where it was having serious and measurable effects on the accuracy of the polls as compared to years past (or years to come, as he believed).

[smjjames]

A New Hampshire state rep has apparently claimed that the Pope is the Antichrist.

See this is one of the reasons I still follow some political news, even though I feel like my vote matters less and less every second. It's reached Alice in Wonderland levels of surreality and craziness. Donald Trump for President? State reps publicly saying that religious authorities are the Antichrist?

Is this the real life? Or is this fantasy?

I saw this earlier and was like 'if there is a state rep. who is for Trump, how come 538 doesn't have her as endorsing Trump?' Unless maybe she hasn't officially endorsed him or is a rep in the state government and not in congress.

Also: http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/marco-rubio-anti-prostitution-nevada/index.html I wonder how much that would cost him votes in Nevada. Though it might be too soon for that to really have any impact.

[sluissa]

A New Hampshire state rep has apparently claimed that the Pope is the Antichrist.

See this is one of the reasons I still follow some political news, even though I feel like my vote matters less and less every second. It's reached Alice in Wonderland levels of surreality and craziness. Donald Trump for President? State reps publicly saying that religious authorities are the Antichrist?

Is this the real life? Or is this fantasy?

Trump wins, restyles his hair into a fancy hat and sets himself up as Antipope.

Edit: 2017 would be exactly 600 years since the disposal of Benedict XIII, the last widely followed Antipope.

July 1417 - Antipope Benedict XII deposed by the Council of Constance.

June 1946 - Donald Trump is born.

July 1946 - Bikini Atoll Tests - atomic rumbling disturbs and give power to the ancient ghost of Antipope Benedict XIII, giving him the ability to inhabit the body of the baby Trump.

June 2015 - Trump Announces Candidacy for President

November 2016 - Trump wins

July 2017 - Trump sets himself up as Pope Donald I

[Strife26]

Yeah, I don't think that 538 cares much about State Legislators. The smaller the government gets, the crazier they can be and still accurately represent their constituency.

[smjjames]

Whole slew of more polls out today, including a bunch from NC you might find a bit intriguing. Clinton is having some trouble with the republicans in that state, though that's not too surprising given how red that state is.

[Descan]

birth control exists you know

well since we were talking about population increases...

[Zangi]

birth control exists you know

well since we were talking about population increases...

Isn't contraceptives a thing some of those a bit more religiously/conservatively inclined against?

[Strife26]

So the problem is likely that the Canadian population is not growing due to a lack of religiosity?

[RedKing]

Find Jesus, maek babby

[Loud Whispers]

GO FORTH AND MULTIPLY YOU DEGENERATES, YOU NEED TO MAKE BABY

[hector13]

Find Jesus, maek babby

Do you think Jesus'll like me, though? Like... like me like me?

[RedKing]

PedoJesus loves the little children, all the children of the world.


So, I just found out that thanks to our knuckle-dragging Teatard legislature, the NC primaries are being moved from March 15 to June 7. So, basically we're back to being irrelevant. Thanks, you ignorant cluster of asshat fuckbarrels.

On the plus side, I'm back in the 4th District now, with Rep. David Price (a progressive Dem and all-around hoopy frood) as my Congresscritter, rather than Rep. Mark Walker (a Southern Baptist preacher who stated he had no qualms about going to war with Mexico). So there's that.

[mainiac]

When he says war with Mexico, what are the terms?  Be specific, please.  Will this fund wall building?

[Loud Whispers]

When he says war with Mexico, what are the terms?  Be specific, please.  Will this fund wall building?

It will help his bid to become Chinese Emperor