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[mainiac]

Maybe.  I have a sense that we aren't going to have a lot of blowouts going forward.  Age seems to matter more then race and that would screw up a lot of the polling models used so far.

[RedKing]

Perhaps. But we're an aging nation. And young voters are likely to get discouraged if they see Clinton keep winning. (Shit, I'm 40 and *I'm* discouraged.)

[Loud Whispers]

Poor Jeb

Jeb is one of the few politicians I only wish genuine happiness, he seems so sincere in his vulnerability and utter lack of arms for politics, the turtle without a shell

[sluissa]

Poor Jeb

Jeb is one of the few politicians I only wish genuine happiness, he seems so sincere in his vulnerability and utter lack of arms for politics, the turtle without a shell

Too sad to watch.

[mainiac]

Perhaps. But we're an aging nation. And young voters are likely to get discouraged if they see Clinton keep winning. (Shit, I'm 40 and *I'm* discouraged.)

While there are more old people then there used to be, even in Florida every state has a mix of young and old people.  For this reason I suspect that even in states that appear to favor one candidate or the other due to racial demographics, age demographics will keep things closer then projected.

[RedKing]

Yeah....I'd say Trump has this in the bag.



EDIT: On the other hand, 45% said it was "very important" that a candidates share their religious beliefs, with another 32% labelling it "somewhat important".

And voters were nearly dead-even on whether they wanted someone with experience (48%) or an outsider (46%).

Cruz may have a better than expected showing here. Not enough to win, but maybe enough to distance himself notably from Rubio. Catholicism is not a terribly common denomination in the South (at least among white and black populations), and Cruz is Southern Baptist as opposed to Bush and Rubio's Catholicsm.
Kasich's Anglicanism is kind of a neutral point -- might actually help in places like Charleston, where the old colonial influence includes a higher proportion of Anglican churches.

[Rolan7]

Yeah a blanket ban is uncalled for.  There are a lot of Muslims who would honestly swear to follow the constitution, in violation of Sharia, and they should be welcomed.

A lot, not most.  Keep it real.

[smjjames]

Yeah a blanket ban is uncalled for.  There are a lot of Muslims who would honestly swear to follow the constitution, in violation of Sharia, and they should be welcomed.

A lot, not most.  Keep it real.

Trumps gonna Trump, y'know.....

Early results from SC are going to be soon.

[RedKing]

Looking at the exit poll data, Rubio isn't likely to get the surge he needs to pass Cruz.

Cruz won the 17-29 demographic and the 30-44 demographic, and Trump won everyone 45+.

Cruz tied with Trump at 26% of women, while Rubio only had 24% (and women have been one of his best demographics).

Bush, Carson and Kasich look to be in a 3-way tie for 4th place, each getting 7% of the exit poll. That's better than expected for Carson, which means the good doctor may keep baking on for another couple of weeks.

Rubio's only winning demographic is wealthy white people with advanced degrees. So he has that in common with Hillary. 

[RedKing]

Any predictions on whether Bush drops if he doesn't win 4th place tonight?

[smjjames]

Rubio's (iPhone spellcheck changed that to dubious, lol) gotten an early (VERY early mind you) lead on Cruz, I guess Carson will finish last, again.

Any predictions on whether Bush drops if he doesn't win 4th place tonight?

He seems determined to move on to Nevada, which isn't all that far away, but the pressure will definetly be on him.

[Rolan7]

I'd bet a little on the longshot - I suspect Bush never gives up.  Wouldn't he have, already?

IDK, maybe he's angling for a vice presidency and trying to demonstrate value.

[smirk]

If he hasn't given up by now I can't imagine that any finish here would push him over the edge, short of something catastrophic. But you never know. Poor guy just seems to be a glutton for misery.

[RedKing]

Yeah, that Rubio lead is based on 5 precincts reporting out of 2000+. I'm not even looking at numbers till we get to 5% or so.

re: Bush and Nevada -- he's polling at 1% there, the last I checked. Whyyyyy? Why do you do this to yourself, Jeb? It's okay...your parents still love you, even if you don't become President. Look at Neil! He's still allowed to come to family reunions, and he hasn't done shit politically.

EDIT: Aaaaand apparently SC is "sorta" winner-take-all. Out of 50 delegates, the winner gets 29, and the remaining 21 are based on who wins each of SC's 7 Congressional districts (3 per district). So conceivably, a YUGE SC win here could give Trump 50 delegates. SC is the only state that gets to bend the "proportional until 3/15" rule that the RNC set.

Why? Cause 'Murrica, that's why.

[smjjames]

Yeah, good point on that with the districts.