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[wierd]

*sigh*

Where's Nero? I want to play the fiddle too.

[smjjames]

I'm not on the list?  What the fuck do I have to do.
I'm literally begging here, please add me.  Please.

It's a thing we started way back here: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=147340.msg6668141#msg6668141 You do have a slight advantage in that theres already been two dropouts since that started.

[wierd]

I made the early prediction that the ticket would boil down to Clinton and the Trump, waaaaaay back in the thread. That was at the beginning of the primaries. At the time, Mainiac tried to assure me that the trump was completely unelectable, and that I was worried for nothing.

Nope. Called it.

I dont like the result. But I called it. 

[smjjames]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/iowa-caucus-2016-live-updates/2016/02/ben-carson-iowa-caucuses-laundry-218575 Oh, it's to get a fresh set of clothes.... O-kay.....

[mainiac]

At the time, Mainiac tried to assure me that the trump was completely unelectable, and that I was worried for nothing.

I still say he's unelectable.  Trump getting elected virtually requires one of these two things
1) Economic collapse in the next 10 months
2) Bloomberg candidacy eating up Clinton/Sanders voters

I did say that Trump's initial break out of the pack wasn't statistically significant.  But hey, type I errors happen even if you are careful.

[wierd]

I do note that sanders was neck and neck with Clinton in the Iowa preliminary polls. Politico has the split at 52 to 46. That is not a terribly big lead by clinton. It is possible Sanders can still beat the wicked witch.

[Baffler]

And even if he loses here, doesn't he pretty much have New Hampshire in the bag?

[Bauglir]

So I just got back from the Iowa Democratic Caucus. How did I finish before it even started, you may ask? Well, it turns out that I did not in fact register Democratic earlier, as my memory insisted I did. And the line for registration was about a thousand people long*, so fuck that. This was worth the time when I expected to spend 2 hours between lines and actual voting, with the balance spent on reading. Going through that line changes that assessment dramatically.

tl;dr bauglir is a spineless wimp

*i live on a college campus and they put 7 caucus locations in one building, the fuckers

[MetalSlimeHunt]

And so it was that Bernie lost by only one vote, only one lazy college student damned the nation and then the world to licking the heel of Lady Clinton, whom all look upon and despair.

[mainiac]

And even if he loses here, doesn't he pretty much have New Hampshire in the bag?

He does but there are two concerns:
1) He needs some momentum leaving New Hampshire
2) Given that these are states that are favorable to him if he doesn't overperform in them he probably cant get up to majority support.  Something about the race would need to change such as him finally making inroads among black voters or centrist democrats.

[wierd]

THe split between cruz and trump is more entertaining. Currently preliminary results are so neck and neck, it is almost painful.

Which GOP asshole will Iowa select? Place your bets kids.

Currently:

32.7% trump
32.4% cruz

Fractions of a percentage there.  painful.

[Shadowlord]

So, yeah, Carson actually is going back home to Florida regardless of how he does in the caucases. Sounds an awful lot like giving up, plus also looks like he can't take the heat anymore.

"Ben Carson Is Not Dropping Out; Just Needs To Do His Laundry" - CLARE MALONE 8:44 PM, 538:

In a testament to the where-there’s-smoke-there’s-fire power of Twitter, only a few minutes into the caucus process, the rumors were flying that Ben Carson would be dropping out of the race. This was precipitated by CNN reports that Carson would not be continuing straight onto New Hampshire like other candidates but would instead be going to his home in Florida and then to Washington, D.C., for the National Prayer Breakfast (scene of his 2013 breakout political moment). Via a couple of tweets, Carson spokesman Jason Osbourne said the candidate was not suspending his campaign, but rather getting fresh clothes. Osbourne further noted in a direct response to CNN’s Jake Tapper that the good doctor had been on the road for 17 days, leading one to surmise that he does not believe in doing his laundry in the hotel sink. You can’t blame people for thinking that Carson is going to be on his way out soon, though; his polling has been anemic, in the single digits for the past few weeks, and it’s hard to fathom that he’ll stay in this race too much longer.

[smjjames]

Trump and Cruz are really fighting for first place, might come down to a statistical tie, dunno.

[Shadowlord]

Caucuses don't have statistical ties. :V

[Bauglir]

And so it was that Bernie lost by only one vote, only one lazy college student damned the nation and then the world to licking the heel of Lady Clinton, whom all look upon and despair.

you correctly called my planned candidate, but if this actually happened i would be too entertained to be mad