I think it'd be helpful if everyone (especially me) was quite clear in who and what we're replying to.
To no one in particular, I figure we have three main classes of possible responses, all pretty much at the onus (and therefore blame) of the government.
Option 1: Best case scenario
Government lays nice, general cordon around the area and settles down for a pleasant, non-violent siege and negotiation for whatever it is these guys actually want. Assuming they're actually going with the fortress of anti-governmental forces option (which I place as unlikely, because it's pretty stupid), continue general cordon. 1-6 months.
Result: Protesters important argument, that the government is going tyrannical in using force to restrict people's rights is shown to be mostly false. Concerns assuaged for rational populace. 50% increase in ammunition prices, plus whatever happens with gun control. Occupiers probably get a few years for trespassing.
--Bearcat Line--
--Waco Line--
Option 2: Government dun fucks up
There's some sort of battle involved in clearing them out. People get killed, but the government can claim that they had a reason. Unless it's something really silly, like the occupiers trying to break through the cordon, it's going to be the government's fault, because initiative is, once again, there's in this case.
For my money, the most likely initial incident for this is going to be a particularly bright FBI or ATF guy try to infiltrate the occupiers, then try to shadily sell them C4 again, followed by the bearcats rolling in an attempt to rescue him.
Result: Conspiracy theories abound (likely justified, because I sincerely doubt that the government cordon is going to get assaulted). Opposition among hardliners increases, but general populace and semi-hardliners can mostly except the excuses. Life ticks on like it did after Waco. Ammunition costs up 100%, expect dark days ahead, especially if State/Local/Federal government compounds it with something stupid. People dead. Surviving Occupiers get significant jail time.
--Tank Line--
--Hellfire Line--
--Ohfuckohfuckohfuckohfuck Line--
--Tear up the Constitution Line--
Several options for this one! Pick your favorite flavor!
- Government ignores the Posse Comitatus Act and calls in Federal troops, drones, and tanks!
- Government conducts overwhelming assault without a good enough cover story (it would have to be a very bad one that's concluded as false by the generally concerned populace)
- Government links things with serous push on gun control including any sort of confiscation measure (probably not additional background checks, which would just go up in Option 2 inflammatory things to do)
- President Obama declares State of Emergency, disbands Congress & the Supreme Court, and cancels 2016 elections.
Result: Serious chance of bad things happening. Ammunition prices increase 500+%. Goats and Gold also experience significant upticks in price. Occupiers probably dead. Many saner people begin serous innawoods preparations. God help us all. Republic at genuine threat.
There's also an option 1.5 where the occupiers do something obviously stupid a few get popped for it. It's basically option 2 with a completely believed cover story.
Fortunately the last scenarios seem to be pretty unlikely, and I'd certainly argue that, if they were to happen, the resulting conflagration is both unavoidable and probably needed.