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[Flying Dice]

That's the problem with plotting at that level: it's damned hard to conclusively prove anything, both because most of it goes on in (as MSH said) personal conversations in secure locations, and because the people involved have personal resources sufficient to bury mountains of actual evidence. Nixon only got caught because he was incredibly fucking sloppy.

[FearfulJesuit]

Why doesn't the OP mention Ben Carson at all?

It hasn't been updated since mid-august. Still says "Jeb Bush" is the front runner... obviously in need of some updating.

Uh, yeah. I need to get on that. I've just been...extraordinarily unproductive recently. It just isn't a great time right now.

[Descan]

Perhaps someone else (not it!) could whip up a new OP, and then FellowJacobite there can inject it into the... uh... OP?

[RedKing]

ISIS release video threatening Paris-style attacks in Washington D.C.

CNN responds by pulling out the big font and flashing red/white letters. But let's not panic or anything.

The ironic part is that the people who will most invoke fear and panic over this are the ones who have talked about how wonderful it would be if Washington fell into the Potomac.

[FearfulJesuit]

I can't imagine that will end well, but for a somewhat different reason...you know there'll be armed bands of roving hillbillies wandering around Washington to 2nd Amendment any suspected ISIS attackers.

[RedKing]

I can't imagine that will end well, but for a somewhat different reason...you know there'll be armed bands of roving hillbillies wandering around Washington to 2nd Amendment any swarthy people.

FTFY

[smjjames]

The GOP found another reason to threaten a government shutdown:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/gop-lawmakers-syria-refugees-215936

[Aklyon]

The more I hear things like that the more it sounds like they forgot how to do other things besides threaten a shutdown on any topic they fancy.

[TheBiggerFish]

The more I hear things like that the more it sounds like they forgot how to do other things besides threaten a shutdown on any topic they fancy.

Heh.

[misko27]

The more I hear things like that the more it sounds like they forgot how to do other things besides threaten a shutdown on any topic they fancy.

It's because the conservatives who usually do the shutdown thing are under the impression that the last shutdown was a good idea cut short by Boehner and McConnell, and that Republicans didn't get any political heat over it. Therefore, they think it was a good idea, and are thus convinced of its efficacy in bringing both the democrats and the leadership to the table.

In reality, it was a political shot-in-the-foot and the republican leadership caved to reason, and only the start of the Obamacare complaints (remember those? it's been a while) eclipsed the issue.

[Flying Dice]

Well, yeah. Why bother working to solve problems when you can hold the country hostage until you get your way?

[IronyOwl]

What I find interesting is that several Democrats are on board or at least concerned as well, reinforcing the idea that political understanding of statistics is about as worthless as that of the people they serve.

I mean, assume every single Syrian refugee is an ISIS suicide commando, and that 5 operatives can together kill 150 people. That's 10,000 enemy agents, or 2,000 cells, leading to a total death toll of 300,000 people. Not exactly flattering, but still only a little over a 10% increase in total fatalities for 2013 assuming every single individual is a highly effective terrorist. Plug in anywhere near reasonable numbers, and we're back to the usual of "three people died this one time, so we need sweeping national policy changes."

And admittedly, the situation here's a little more grim because "don't settle refugees" or "investigate refugees a little better" is easier than "cut heart disease related mortalities in half," so if you are concerned about American fatalities this could be a pretty simple way to cut back. But unless these refugees are very frequently and effectively hostile, we're still probably well within the statistical risk levels of some really stupid, trivial ways to die.

...

Oh also, I really wanted an opportunity to post this without shitposting too badly:

Spoiler: As Off Topic As Trump Is Capable Of Being (click to show/hide)

I'm not normally a fan of Trump bashing, but I'm having a really difficult time not imagining this.

[alway]

Fun fact: So far this year, a French person has almost as high a chance of dying due to ISIS as an American has of dying due to a police officer.

[origamiscienceguy]

Fun fact: So far this year, a French person has almost as high a chance of dying due to ISIS as an American has of dying due to a police officer.

To be fair, most of the police officer deaths were because the "victim" was attacking said police officer.

[Loud Whispers]

Fun fact: So far this year, a French person has almost as high a chance of dying due to ISIS as an American has of dying due to a police officer.

To be fair, most of the police officer deaths were because the "victim" was attacking said police officer.

What are the stats on police brutality?