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[smjjames]

RedKing: The field is much more crowded this time around, so it's normal if candidates are polling lower.

That and Trump sucking all the oxygen.

[mainiac]

I feel you are too frequentest and not Bayesian enough, RedKing.  There was a plausible case to make that Perry was a major candidate before he even entered the race.  It is a crowded field I expect to be volatile.  Bad polls this early on dont change my view too terribly much.  Certainly it would lower the odds I would give him somewhat, but not "pull the plug".

[smjjames]

Also, you forgot 'join half-heartedly at the last minute and barely register as a blip when he announced' Gilmore for 'pull the plug already'. He and Graham don't even register on RealClearPolitics average chart. Heck, Gilmore hasn't even come up as one of the names listed in the poll tally on their polls page for, I dunno, a while.

Yeah, I was like 'hmm, isn't there a Gilmore?........' *checks wiki* yep.

He and Graham are two candidates that definetly won't meet the 1% mark for the next debate.

[RedKing]

Gilmore is on the "There was a guy named Gilmore?" list. He gets his own category, to make up for being so utterly not in the race that I forgot about him.


Is the 2016 race more crowded? Yes, by a factor of about 2-1 (8 major candidates versus 16). However, let's look at poll positions as well. At his lowest, Gingrich was 5th out of 8. Not great, but still middle-of-the-pack.

At his BEST this time around since announcing, Perry has been 9th (out of 11 at the time). He was actually polling at his best (~8%, 5th place) last summer well before anybody had announced. His campaign was stillborn. He started well in the back of the pack and has done nothing to move up. That's not the kind of campaign that will continue to attract money.

Now granted, Perry is using the same playbook as Jeb -- offloading most of the ground game to his super PACs and running a shoestring official campaign. But even then his Super PACs (he has three of them) are getting crushed in fundraising by most other candidates.


@maniac: I would have to disagree. I'm not just looking at the numbers, I'm taking into account previous cycles (hence my comparison of the 2012 cycle with its sine waves of different candidates vs. the Trump ascent).


I'd say Santorum has the same problem as Perry -- his campaign was dead the moment it started. Both overperformed for a while (and in part due to deep-pocketed backers) in 2012 but ultimately faced an establishment candidate with a deep support base within the party.

The dynamics are quite different this time around. If anything, Santorum and Perry are now "establishment" candidates by virtue of their previous runs. In 2012, they were sorta fresh and new. In 2016, it's "oh, these losers again". Which goes a long way to explain the utter lack of traction they got out of the gate (ditto for Mike Huckabee, though sitting out the 2012 cycle seemed to refresh his image a bit).

Honestly I would have thought Trump would suffer the same problem, sort of a Ross Perot "Is he for real this time or just fucking around like usual?" vibe, but the guy hit paydirt with his tack on immigration. Either he got lucky or he recognized a swelling nativist sentiment among the Tea Party and capitalized on it at just the right time.

[FearfulJesuit]

I think it's the latter. People who accuse Trump of being a bigot well may be right, but they're completely missing the point. Trump is an opportunist above all else, and somehow figured out that twenty-first-century Know-Nothingism is a deep-seated and prominent strain in the GOP that didn't really have a mouthpiece.

Does Trump realize that his talk of anchor babies, twelve-figure border walls, and rapist Mexicans will only accelerate the demographic issues the GOP faces? Probably. But the writhing masses who attend his rallies stroke his ego, and his business dealings have shown very well that he's no stranger to imploding the organizations and companies that he's captained.

EDIT: As an aside, nobody seems to have noted that the Donald will be the first Presidential candidate to make an issue of vaccines and autism. Let's all hope and pray that he doesn't succeed at making the other candidates go full retard on this "issue" like he has several others.

[Reelya]

I'd like to see Ben Carson follow Obama just for the inevitable instantaneous rewrite in conservative logic that would follow:

Democrat: "I don't agree with Ben Carson's move to lower the corporate tax rate to %30.0. I think it should be %32.5"

Republican: "That's racist! You only say that because we have a Black president, you Democrats are always playing the race card!"

[SalmonGod]

[smjjames]

Like what? Being his wife? lol.......

[mainiac]

[RedKing]

Dammit, you literally ninja'd me by about two seconds. I was even going to use that graphic.

[Flying Dice]

Today's the day where the Kentucky Republican leadership is going to reject Rand Paul's attempt to circumvent state law and run for President and his current Senate seat at the same time. While two of his top subordinates are indicted for bribery. When he's got a strong populist Christian Democrat making a run for his Senate seat. It's so beautiful.

Kind of old, but, nope: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-rand-paul-can-run-for-president-senate-at-the-same-time/

He isn't doing that great in the polls anyway, so it might end up moot.

I wonder how he convinced them to bend the Kentucky law like that?

Don't ask me. I was assuming that at least 50% of them were rational actors, but that evidently isn't the case.

[mainiac]

Dammit, you literally ninja'd me by about two seconds. I was even going to use that graphic.

I am a the master of the three arts of the killjoy.

[SirQuiamus]

...twenty-first-century Know-Nothingism...

Odd that no-one's posted this yet:

  (1) Repeal of all Naturalization Laws.
  (2) None but Americans for office.
  (3) A pure American Common School system.
  (4) War to the hilt, on political Romanism.
  (5) Opposition to the formation of Military Companies, composed of Foreigners.
  (6) The advocacy of a sound, healthy and safe Nationality.
  (7) Hostility to all Papal influences, when brought to bear against the Republic.
  (8) American Constitutions & American sentiments.
  (9) More stringent & effective Emigration Laws.
  (10) The amplest protection to Protestant Interests.
  (11) The doctrines of the revered Washington.
  (12) The sending back of all foreign paupers.
  (13) Formation of societies to protect American interests.
  (14) Eternal enmity to all those who attempt to carry out the principles of a foreign Church or State.
  (15) Our Country, our whole Country, and nothing but our Country.
  (16) Finally, American Laws, and American Legislation, and Death to all foreign influences, whether in high places or low

Change the date to 2016 and you're all set: The GOP nomination is yours.

[Sheb]

You just need to change catholicism for Islam.

[SirQuiamus]

Exchanging Satan for Beelzebub? Same difference.