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[smjjames]

I should note that this years crowd is even bigger than 2008 or 2012s crowd, so the pie is sliced even THINNER.

Actually, I'm surprised that the really low level guys haven't given out already.

[Bauglir]

With a walking joke leading the pack, everybody's sure they have a shot.[/there is no evidence that this is why]

[mainiac]

How about lines? Do lines work for you?

Not really, no.

Morning Consult   8/14 - 8/16   783 RV   32
Morning Consult   7/31 - 8/3   783 RV   25
difference +7

Rasmussen   8/9 - 8/10   651 LV   17
Rasmussen   7/28 - 7/29   471 LV   26
difference -9

FOX   8/11 - 8/13   381 LV   25
FOX   7/30 - 8/2   475 LV   26
difference -1

Ipsos/Reuters   8/15 - 8/19   291 A   29
Ipsos/Reuters   8/6 - 8/10   278 A   24
Ipsos/Reuters   7/25 - 7/29   409 A   27
difference +2

CNN   8/13 - 8/16   506 RV   24   
CNN   7/22 - 7/25   419 LV   18
difference +6

Average difference: +1
95% margin of error for each meta analysis value: ~1.65% @ 95% confidence
Pooled margin of error for overall meta analysis: ~2.25%

So Trump has improved in the polls by about 1/2 the margin of error and that is using the very generous assumption of poll independence (probably not true given herding) and treating methodologies as identical when we know for a fact they are not.  In fact the margin of error should be even bigg

[Sadegh]

Election analyst Nate Silver's stance on the Trump GOP candidacy:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/

[mainiac]

Thanks for the link, Grisha5

[smjjames]

It's probably one huge troll by Trump, and he knows it.

Besides, with the exception of one or two state polls, he hasn't even breached 30% yet, plus theres still LOADS of undecideds and the field is thinly sliced as it is.

[Sadegh]

I sure am going to enjoy gloating at the expense of the alt-rightists I know who seem certain Trump will get the GOP nomination when he in all likelihood won't and really his supporters all will have been cucked by him to stir up some publicity. lmao

[Frumple]

... gods be buggered, this election cycle is going to see cuckold bastardized, shortened, misused, and thoroughly disseminated into the cultural vocabulary, isn't it? Cuck is going to be the new conservative gay, except even more misused.

Why? Why would they do this to a perfectly good word? What did cuckoldry ever do to the conservative base?

I mean. Besides their wives/husbands/etc.

[Helgoland]

Also, could some non-Americans tell me something? How is it possible to disagree with somebody and not personally hate them for disagreeing?

Just come look at the Europol and various Ukraine threads. I still consider Sergarr, GI, and mainiac to be swell guys, and Knit I even know off Bay12 by now.

[wobbly]

Australia has always seemed eerily American to me. There are a few differences that come to mind - they have heavier gun control than us, more censorship (or possibly just different censorship), and college is cheaper. And there are horrible stinging trees.

I'm kind of curious if any of the people who seem to think Australia is far right have actually been here. Americans views on Australia can be hilarious at times. Keep in mind it takes a lot for Australia to make world news & that means 99% of whats normally going on here is filtered out.

Edit: Not to belay the point but I'd keep that in mind for most places in the world.

[smjjames]

... gods be buggered, this election cycle is going to see cuckold bastardized, shortened, misused, and thoroughly disseminated into the cultural vocabulary, isn't it? Cuck is going to be the new conservative gay, except even more misused.

Why? Why would they do this to a perfectly good word? What did cuckoldry ever do to the conservative base?

I mean. Besides their wives/husbands/etc.

I've really only seen it used in the term cuckservative as a way to say cockservative without actually saying cock.

Still though, language evolves and changes all the time, so....

And yeah, I'm aware that the word 'gay' used to mean happy or joyful, so things that were written in that context (like Shakespeare for example, or rather, in his time) sound odd now.

[Arx]

... gods be buggered, this eating contest cycle is going to see cuckold bastardized, shortened, misused, and thoroughly disseminated into the cultural vocabulary, isn't it? Cuck is going to be the new conservative gay, except even more misused.

Why? Why would they do this to a perfectly good word? What did cuckoldry ever do to the conservative base?

I mean. Besides their wives/husbands/etc.

I've really only seen it used in the term cuckservative as a way to say cockservative without actually saying cock.

Humorously, it's pronounced the same way as the Afrikaans (/Dutch?) word kak, which means 'shit'. So every time someone says 'cuckservative', I think the rough equivalent of 'shitservative'. Yep.

[SirQuiamus]

I've really only seen it used in the term cuckservative as a way to say cockservative without actually saying cock.

That's a 180-degree misinterpretation. I suppose you didn't read this article that I linked a while ago. It might clarify things a bit.

EDIT: "Cuck" is a very useful little word because it's basically a tribal marker for alt-right wingnuts, and using it unironically is like wearing a brightly-coloured T-shirt that says, in enormous bolded letters: I AM A MASSIVE PRICK.

[Lord Shonus]

Now this is interesting:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/08/24/blacklivesmatter-sanders-clinton-anger-column/32055507/

There are many things to be angry about when you are consumed by hopelessness. Bernie Sanders isn’t one of them.

This entire piece, except for a drive-by on teacher's unions, is pretty reasonable - we need solid school systems (something Sanders proposes quite loudly as well), less glamorization of black criminality in media, safer inner-city neighborhoods, and more attention paid by both parties to black concerns.

[smjjames]

I've really only seen it used in the term cuckservative as a way to say cockservative without actually saying cock.

That's a 180-degree misinterpretation. I suppose you didn't read this article that I linked a while ago. It might clarify things a bit.

EDIT: "Cuck" is a very useful little word because it's basically a tribal marker for alt-right wingnuts, and using it unironically is like wearing a brightly-coloured T-shirt that says, in enormous bolded letters: I AM A MASSIVE PRICK.

alt-right? Is that like alternative right? But yeah, I didn't realize the story behind it, I've seen cuntservative a few times on this thread, so I thought it was something like that. I don't use that term 'cuckservative' myself, thankfully.