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[My Name is Immaterial]

considering the very-likely nomination of   "I'm starting to wonder myself whether he was born in this country" Donald "All of the women on The Apprentice flirted with me" Trump.

That's a VERY bold statement. I'm pretty sure that he'll hit some stumbles, and his popularity will fall. Probably at debate #2, on September 16th. People will expect him to perform, and I'm not sure how long he can keep this up for. He's not a politician, he's an actor!

http://xkcd.com/1122/

Fair enough.

[Loud Whispers]

Hillary Clinton was an inside job, but then the Mexicans took her job

All while Bill was getting a blowjob.

that job, too, was taken by the mexicans

Whilst Jeb lost his Job

[Owlbread]

That's a VERY bold statement. I'm pretty sure that he'll hit some stumbles, and his popularity will fall. Probably at debate #2, on September 16th. People will expect him to perform, and I'm not sure how long he can keep this up for. He's not a politician, he's an actor!

You're applying moderate Democrat thinking to Republican voters who seem completely disillusioned with DC politics-as-usual. Considering how unbreakable his lead seems to be, I fully expect a Trump victory unless he does stumble at debate #2.

I think a Bush/Clinton race was what we were all expecting to begin with but that doesn't necessarily seem to be the way things are swinging.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

He's winning in places though, isn't he? In places like New Hampshire, for instance?

Ya, but not in Iowa, which is traditionally key to winning the nomination.

That said, Hillary has gone from the massive throbbing 65% shoe-in to the comparatively flaccid ~50% in a month, a trend of degradation which could be fatal if chronic. She's certainly not a very exciting candidate, I haven't even heard people playing up the "woman President" angle.

I'd be curious to see what would happen if Biden entered the race properly and split the right wing of the Democrats that are currently helping Clinton.

I hope he doesn't; his son died recently, so I hope he takes some time to recover first.

I don't know the veracity of it, but there's been rumors that Beau told him not to let his probable death keep him from running. If true, it could certainly be a motivating factor.

That's a VERY bold statement. I'm pretty sure that he'll hit some stumbles, and his popularity will fall. Probably at debate #2, on September 16th. People will expect him to perform, and I'm not sure how long he can keep this up for. He's not a politician, he's an actor!

You're applying moderate Democrat thinking to Republican voters who seem completely disillusioned with DC politics-as-usual. Considering how unbreakable his lead seems to be, I fully expect a Trump victory unless he does stumble at debate #2.

I think a Bush/Clinton race was what we were all expecting to begin with but that doesn't necessarily seem to be the way things are swinging.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/candidates-in-donald-trumps-position-have-a-terrible-track-record/

[My Name is Immaterial]

You're applying moderate Democrat thinking to Republican voters who seem completely disillusioned with DC politics-as-usual. Considering how unbreakable his lead seems to be, I fully expect a  Donald "I promise not to talk about your massive plastic surgeries" Trump victory unless he does stumble at debate #2.

I think a Bush/Clinton race was what we were all expecting to begin with but that doesn't necessarily seem to be the way things are swinging.

Well, it'll be an election to watch, for certain.

[smjjames]

The problem though is that normally, a candidate ends their campaign when they run out of funds, but that isn't an issue with trump. Even if he gets deflated a bit, he'll most likely stick around and go independent.

[BFEL]

That's a VERY bold statement. I'm pretty sure that he'll hit some stumbles, and his popularity will fall. Probably at debate #2, on September 16th. People will expect him to perform, and I'm not sure how long he can keep this up for. He's not a politician, he's an actor!

You're applying moderate Democrat thinking to Republican voters who seem completely disillusioned with DC politics-as-usual. Considering how unbreakable his lead seems to be, I fully expect a Trump victory unless he does stumble at debate #2.

I think a Bush/Clinton race was what we were all expecting to begin with but that doesn't necessarily seem to be the way things are swinging.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/candidates-in-donald-trumps-position-have-a-terrible-track-record/

http://xkcd.com/1122/

ERHRM

[MetalSlimeHunt]

That's a VERY bold statement. I'm pretty sure that he'll hit some stumbles, and his popularity will fall. Probably at debate #2, on September 16th. People will expect him to perform, and I'm not sure how long he can keep this up for. He's not a politician, he's an actor!

You're applying moderate Democrat thinking to Republican voters who seem completely disillusioned with DC politics-as-usual. Considering how unbreakable his lead seems to be, I fully expect a Trump victory unless he does stumble at debate #2.

I think a Bush/Clinton race was what we were all expecting to begin with but that doesn't necessarily seem to be the way things are swinging.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/candidates-in-donald-trumps-position-have-a-terrible-track-record/

http://xkcd.com/1122/

ERHRM

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-the-nickelback-of-gop-candidates/

EHERHERHERM

[Baffler]

That's a VERY bold statement. I'm pretty sure that he'll hit some stumbles, and his popularity will fall. Probably at debate #2, on September 16th. People will expect him to perform, and I'm not sure how long he can keep this up for. He's not a politician, he's an actor!

You're applying moderate Democrat thinking to Republican voters who seem completely disillusioned with DC politics-as-usual. Considering how unbreakable his lead seems to be, I fully expect a Trump victory unless he does stumble at debate #2.

I think a Bush/Clinton race was what we were all expecting to begin with but that doesn't necessarily seem to be the way things are swinging.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/candidates-in-donald-trumps-position-have-a-terrible-track-record/

http://xkcd.com/1122/

ERHRM

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-the-nickelback-of-gop-candidates/

EHERHERHERM

That comic is grasping for straws anyway. Just because it's XKCD doesn't mean it's right.

[Frumple]

Sanders at least has a chance though considering the very-likely nomination of Trump.

Despite how much we've been talking about him, owl, the chances of trump actually getting nominated are pretty close to zero. Dude's getting attention because he's a joke, but when it comes down to it he's a joke. It'll be a hell of a surprise if he actually takes the nomination.

[BFEL]

That comic is grasping for straws anyway. Just because it's XKCD doesn't mean it's right.

http://xkcd.com/1122/

ERHERR....wait...

Did you just apply that strip back to the comic in general? NICE

[smjjames]

Also, remember the 2008 election (or maybe it was 2012) where various candidates peaked for a while and then dropped in the polls while another rose? It's like that, except Trump is sucking out the oxygen and making it difficult for the others to peak.

Edit: Actually, it may have been both since the GOP field was crowded both times.

[Sheb]

I dunno Clinton had quite the lead at this stage in 2008. And then the candidate that was actually more exciting than a day at the National Twine Museum won. I'm not saying Sanders will win, but he's climbing fast enough that Clinton won't be able to ignore him and pretend she's the nominate already. At the very least, this will pull her further to the left.

[smjjames]

I was referring to the republican candidates who kept taking turns being at the top before dropping in the polls.

[mainiac]

Clinton is probably going to win because Clinton is what democrats want.  Clinton is a high profile, well connected, well spoken, proven mainstream democrat whose "scandals" aren't exactly earth shattering.  This has allowed Clinton to consolidate the party support to an extent that means she will probably win the nomination.  Anyone who thinks that makes this a coronation should really explain their alternative form of democracy where having the support of the majority doesn't make you the frontrunner.

I dunno Clinton had quite the lead at this stage in 2008.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-scandal-inevitable-problems/

tl;dr: Do you think it's likely CNN would ever announce "Look, baring something unlikely, this one is in the bag, we are going to put political coverage on the backburner for the next twelve months." or do you expect the news media to depict every reversion to the mean as a late breaking development?