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[wierd]

Doubtful.  Most likely, the lay public will feel disenfranchised, and thus helpless and powerless in the wake of the collapsing economic conditions left behind as major stake holders (who are foreign) retract their investments.

Cue chinese proverb about misfortune and opportunity.

[mainiac]

I don't like austerity and regret that the Greece situation has come to this, but let's not pretend Greece has been an agentless pawn.

That is exactly what fucking happened.  Greece gave up it's ability to engage in independent action.  The Euro promised to maintain stability and inflation targets.  The Euro did neither and fucked Greece over.  The European promises weren't conditional on Greece being virtuous, they are fucking unconditional.  In fact in the normal course of action even countries that have no formal rights would expect more generosity from their counterparties (for instance in the Latin American and Asian debt crisises).

It's easy to understand how greece fucked up.  The mistakes of the EU are dry technocratic details that you'd need to study optimal currency area theory to understand fully.  The mistakes of Greece caused about 20% of the problem.  The other 80% of the problem was caused by those dry technocratic details.  The real story is buried in the fine print.  And the Troika is trying to fuck this up even more.

Except they can't be expected to balance their budgets when you force contractionist policies on them. They already have a primary surplus, despite loosing a quarter of their output.

+1

[lijacote]

Except they can't be expected to balance their budgets when you force contractionist policies on them. They already have a primary surplus, despite loosing a quarter of their output.

If by contractionist policy you're referring to a potential (if extremely unlikely) settlement between Syriza and the troika, absolutely. There will be no rebalancing as long as this situation persists.

[Bohandas]

Argentine judge orders oil company assets seized

Expect to see more stuff like this in the news, as their election season is coming up soon.

Does that company even do any business in Argentina? I know they're based nearby, but that doesn't mean anything for sure.

[Helgoland]

Except they can't be expected to balance their budgets when you force contractionist policies on them. They already have a primary surplus, despite loosing a quarter of their output.

If they don't balance their budget they'd need more money to spend, which they would certainly not get from the market. The course of action you propose looks like giving Greece money and them going 'Oh, this time we'll totally pursue responsible policies!', at least from this country.

We can hope that the re-balancing will involve nationalisation of key industry, of banks, of taxes levied on the rich and controls on capital, a revitalisation of labour...

Tell me, what's your opinion of ANEL?

[lijacote]

Tell me, what's your opinion of ANEL?

Looks like the enemy. Right-wing populism bases itself on making the right-seeming demands in a time of crisis, and taking advantage of the people. They promise national dignity in the style of the NSDAP, and once in power enact fascist policy. Rather than analyse the situation correctly and arrive at anti-capitalist conclusions, it lays blame at the feet of different minorities, who it then persecutes while lauding the master race. If my rhetoric seems to lean heavily on the Nazi party, that's because the mechanic here for their generation is very much similar. After the first World War, with Germany in a state of catastrophic disrepair, right-wing populism thrived and built itself up until it could crush the left - the rest is history.

[Helgoland]

Hm. What's your opinion on the Syriza-ANEL coalition? Dumb decision, or necessary evil?

[Sheb]

If they don't balance their budget they'd need more money to spend, which they would certainly not get from the market. The course of action you propose looks like giving Greece money and them going 'Oh, this time we'll totally pursue responsible policies!', at least from this country.

To me it seems that they're already pursuing economic policies that are 'responsible', they just need to let the economy recover (and after such a slump, they're bound to have a bounce back). If you still don't trust them, fine, but at the very least make the conditions dependent on something else than more tax raises and spending cuts.

[Helgoland]

It's not just about responsible policies now, it's about responsible policies later on. I believe without question that the Greek politicians are willing to spend countercyclically - but will they save countercyclically as well? A policy that just kicks the ball thirty years down the road is not a good one. And Greece has a long (andd proud?) tradition of defaulting.
But, to not invite accusations of negative criticism, here's a couple points to improve the state of the Greek state sustainably:

- Instituting an efficient and effective way of collecting taxes
- Earnestly going after tax evaders (no, even the new government hasn't done that yet)
- Making the administration more efficient, and not rehiring superfluous people
- Taxing shipping line owners - they currently don't pay taxes at all

This is by no means an exhaustive list.

Enforcing these directly would rightly be called an invasion of Greek sovereignity, so any incentive from outside has to be indirect: Either they save money by the obvious means - spending cuts, tax hikes -, or they get their shit together and reform. And I firmly believe that after these reforms have been conducted, or at least credibly pursued, the rest of the eurozone will agree to some sort of debt reduction - reluctantly and with great ostentative wailing and gnashing of teeth to keep dumb voters like me satisfied that justice has been served and the order of things kept.
The post-WWI haircuts for Germany went the same way, by the way: First there was the Erfüllungspolitik, the 'policy of fulfillment' which was supposed to show, by giving it its best shot and failing, that Germany was simply not able to pay the reparations, and only after that did Germany get the necessary relief in the form of the Dawes Plan. And when it turned out even that was not sustainable, the Young plan was adopted, and after that one failed because of the Great Depression, the Nazis came to power and here the analogy breaks down.

My point is that we don't need an Endlösung right now: It's sufficient to have a medium-term plan, let's say for the next five years, that's fairly acceptable for all sides. And in a couple years, when the situation has changed, the new and old issues can be adressed for the next five years, and so on and so on. Sure, this trades long-term certainty for short-term calm, but it would certainly be more beneficial to the Greek economy and people than the mess that's been created IRL.

[mainiac]

Helgoland, Greece has already made the adjustment.  Greece has already made an adjustment that is unprecedented in comparable cases of economic mismanagement and fraud.  Germany is demanding more on top of that unprecedented adjustment because they are willing to commit blackmail in order to appease voters like yourself.  It is shameful.

Greece misbehaved certainly.  But the defining characteristic is not Greek misbehavior, it's the fact that Germany has blackmail power and is willing to use it to recover trifling sums of money.

Wanna know how trifling?  Greece needs interest free loans for about 10 years.  The German share would be about 90 billion dollars.  The cost of financing that loan to Greece for Germany is currently 0 dollars, interest free.  It's actually slightly negative but we will just round that off to zero.  Let's suppose the most optimistic economic case, that the cost of German debt finance raises to 1% real interest rate on average for the next 10 years.  The cost of the bailout to Greece would then, in that extreme case, be 900 million euros a year for Germany.  That comes out to about 22.50 euros a household a year.  Hell, call it 23.

You guys are destroying a country because you want to squeeze another 22 euros a year out of it.  You are destroying the European Union, one of the most remarkable project in human history, over the sum of 23 euros a year.  You are humiliating a nation for this sum of money.

Germany has benefited a fuckload more then 23 euros a year per household from the European Union.  Integration of markets and the effect on German finance and interest has been a huge boon to you guys.  The inflation effects alone increase your household purchasing power by more then %0.5 for the better part of a decade.  But you want to forget about the benefits you enjoyed and just think about the huge burden you are bearing... of 23 measly euros a year.  And looking at the way that Germany is running things, interest rates probably wont even get that high.  So it's actually less then 23.

Fuck European solidarity, Helgoland needs some beer money.

[Bohandas]

Germany is currently 0 dollars, interest free.  It's actually slightly negative but we will just round that off to zero.  Let's suppose the most optimistic economic case, that the cost of German debt finance raises to 1% real interest rate on average for the next 10 years.

What does "real" mean in this sense? I know it means something different in economics than it does in everyday use, but I don't know what

[Loud Whispers]

You are destroying the European Union, one of the most remarkable project in human history, over the sum of 23 euros a year.  You are humiliating a nation for this sum of money.

Helgoland, the only argument you need in favour of saving Greece is the prospect of this tyrannical sleepwalk into bland fascism falling to pieces is making my inner Owlbread moist

Also, not going to lie, I thought I was in Europol thread

[FearfulJesuit]

You are destroying the European Union, one of the most remarkable project in human history, over the sum of 23 euros a year.  You are humiliating a nation for this sum of money.

Helgoland, the only argument you need in favour of saving Greece is the prospect of this tyrannical sleepwalk into bland fascism falling to pieces is making my inner Owlbread moist

Also, not going to lie, I thought I was in Europol thread

Eh, it's been mostly quiet in Washington now that SCOTUS has quieted down, I don't really care.

[wierd]

That's because all the fundies are having a secret town hall meeting to discuss how they will handle "Teh GAYZ" problem.

Nevermind the issue with the TPP, and the USA Freedom Act (Where the government is absolutely free to spy on you! WHoopiieee!)

[Loud Whispers]

*Supported by both parties wierd. SUPPORTED BY BOTH PARTIES

NO DEMOCRACY, THE CHOICE IS ON GAY MARRIAGE

And now that Murrica's finally got it, I don't know what non-choice the Republicans and Democrats will offer next. Vote Republican and get two American flags, vote Democrats and get two Rainbow flags. All the while they both push for TPP and patriot act 2: a town called kickapoo