Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Playergamer]

Didn't he say he didn't want to run?

Also, if this comes down to Sanders vs Trump I'm moving to...suggestions please?

[Frumple]

Canada :V

Pretty sure that's where some of the more hilarious conservative crazies have been saying they'll move to in response to stuff like improving the health care system, anyway. Think it was that or same sex marriage (legal in canada), at least.

Not really sure how much of a choice you have, though. US is about as far right as any first world country gets. Next best option would probably be something like russia or china, and those aren't exactly small government/high personal rights.

[WealthyRadish]

Australia's pretty far right, roughly on the level of the US. Not sure about specific policies for the whole "if X happens I'll move to Australia" thing. It's kind of funny that conservatives in the US don't have a go to example for that.

[ChairmanPoo]

Today I saw an US bone marrow donor formulary. It includes many questions as to the donor's sexuality, sexual habits, and the sexuality of their significant others. God forbid that Richard Bush-Gates Vanderbilt III might get a few ounces of *gayyy* blood

[Playergamer]

Yeah, Canada's a good country, they call it soccer and all that, but it's also a bit too far left. Australia sounds good. Heard they love American accents there. Plus, they have the oppressed, poor native minorities. Everybody needs the poor native minority.

Also, could some non-Americans tell me something? How is it possible to disagree with somebody and not personally hate them for disagreeing?

[penguinofhonor]

Australia has always seemed eerily American to me. There are a few differences that come to mind - they have heavier gun control than us, more censorship (or possibly just different censorship), and college is cheaper. And there are horrible stinging trees.

[Frumple]

... australia really isn't what I'd call about as far right as the US, iirc. They do have a few things they're approaching par on -- you might find some comfort there if you're on the social side of the conservatives in the US -- but on several others they're pretty significantly to the left. They actually have health care that's approaching sane, ferex

[WealthyRadish]

Already sounding like a socialist dystopia, maybe you were right about Russia or China. The strongest conclusion though seems that America is just the Best_^tm

[mainiac]

Nationally, he was polling in single digits up till mid-June. Then he was in the teens until around mid-July. Now he's in the mid-twenties. Unless your math is fuzzier than The Hair, that's a steady increase.

I mean his numbers haven't increased lately.  He hit 20% and he's just bouncing around there on the various polls.  Yes he was on an upward trajectory as he got to that 20%.  But right now, I dont see any trend in the numbers.

[smjjames]

Yeah, Canada's a good country, they call it soccer and all that, but it's also a bit too far left. Australia sounds good. Heard they love American accents there. Plus, they have the oppressed, poor native minorities. Everybody needs the poor native minority.

Also, could some non-Americans tell me something? How is it possible to disagree with somebody and not personally hate them for disagreeing?

Uh, look at Bay12.

I know what you're getting at though

[PTTG??]

Today I saw an US bone marrow donor formulary. It includes many questions as to the donor's sexuality, sexual habits, and the sexuality of their significant others. God forbid that Richard Bush-Gates Vanderbilt III might get a few ounces of *gayyy* blood

That's not actually related to bigotry... or at least not overtly. It's mainly a preventative against HIV.

[RedKing]

Nationally, he was polling in single digits up till mid-June. Then he was in the teens until around mid-July. Now he's in the mid-twenties. Unless your math is fuzzier than The Hair, that's a steady increase.

I mean his numbers haven't increased lately.  He hit 20% and he's just bouncing around there on the various polls.  Yes he was on an upward trajectory as he got to that 20%.  But right now, I dont see any trend in the numbers.

How about lines? Do lines work for you?

2016 GOP Primary (as of today):



Yeah, I can't see any trend with that dark red line shooting almost entirely straight up. It could be headed anywhere, maybe even curving around backwards in time. And if by "lately" you mean...oh, I don't know, the last week or two, you'd still be wrong. It's continuing to trend up, and he's over 30 in a couple of recent polls. The trend has been about +10 points a month. Obviously that'll flatten out as the air gets thinner and the other candidate's bases become harder. But so far, I'd say it's consistent with a guy who's got a hell of a shot to win the nomination as things go right now. It's become a self-fulfilling snowball of media hype, rabid popularity and a GOP electorate who desperately want to believe that the guy can fix all their problems AND beat the Democrats in November 2016.


For comparison, the 2012 GOP Primary:


One of these things is not like the other. 2012 had a series of peaks -- the Alps of Assholes if you will -- while Romney was The Little Millionaire Train That Could just chug-chug-chugging along in the background. Romney was never worse than 2nd place and never by more than 5 points or so.

2016, it appears that the former frontrunners (Bush, Walker and Rubio) all peaked simultaneously around May. And then Trump jumped in and those peaks all went down just as sharply. They're now all more than 15 points behind Trump. The only people gaining traction right now are Fiorina (from her kiddie debate performance), Carson (the saner Tea Party option), and Kasich (the saner non-insane option). And some of that is because they're so well below the radar that Trump hasn't started shitting on them in earnest yet. He's taken some potshots at Kasich and Fiorina, but I can't find anywhere where he's jabbed at Carson. Which is leading to talk of a potential Trump/Carson ticket.

[FearfulJesuit]

IIRC, a few major pundits reckon we might be looking at a Trump/Cruz ticket, because Cruz is the only major GOP candidate who hasn't really denounced Trump, and one of the only candidates who hasn't been subjected to Trump's thunderous attacks. Debates'll be interesting.

EDIT: RedKing, there is one issue, though- we're currently in the equivalent of Rick Perry's 2011 peak, and as much as it looks like Donald Trump can defy the laws of politics with infinite pools of money and hubris, we've still got 11 months until the nomination- though, to be fair, Hillary probably has a lock on the Dem primary, too, despite not having technical incumbent status.

However, what the last month HAS suggested is that if Trump cannot sustain the support tōn pollōn for the next eleven months, it will almost certainly be because he will be perceived as insufficiently pure in ideology (amazing as that sounds) and be replaced by someone even crazier. I think the real reason Trump has a lock on the nomination this early, if he does, is that the Republicans' usual donors won't be too keen on bankrolling an even more bombastic Philistine, and so there's nobody who can dethrone Trump from his right flank.

[penguinofhonor]

Looking at those graphs, Donald Trump's spike is occurring around the same time of year as Rick Perry's did. It could be that he's a weirdly popular fad candidate, and Jeb could be our Romney equivalent. He hasn't dropped below second place since 2014.

[Bauglir]

That is the safe conclusion, yeah, and it's what I expect. Still, the real gift is in being able to predict the weird things when they're actually going to happen. I am not yet convinced that Donald Trump is a real candidate, but if we make it through November and he's still being taken seriously I might stop laughing and get genuinely worried.