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Author Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée  (Read 1570009 times)

RedKing

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3075 on: July 22, 2015, 11:39:04 am »

I picked 1992, because that's when the Republican Party really began a hard-right shift. The GOP under Bush Sr.'s watch was still what we would recognize as a center-right party. In fact, the 1992 election and the perception that Bush Sr. lost due to disaffected conservatives not showing up (or voting Perot) led directly to Newt Gingrich's 1994 "Republican Revolution" and the Contract on with America.

It's shifted further right with every electoral cycle since then, but especially after losing a national cycle. The Tea Party surge in 2010 was largely due to the perception that McCain lost in 2008 because he wasn't conservative enough.

If Hillary wins in 2016 (especially if due to a 3rd party Trump run), I don't know how they can slide further right, but they will. Maybe we'll see a paramilitary wing of the Republican Party.

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nenjin

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3076 on: July 22, 2015, 12:00:11 pm »

No, they'll slide so far to the right along the political spectrum, they'll show up on the left :P
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Sheb

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3077 on: July 22, 2015, 12:01:44 pm »

And even since then, theyve got one president out of the last three. Its not too bad.
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Bauglir

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3078 on: July 22, 2015, 12:13:42 pm »

Given that the basic rule is alternation between parties, it's unsurprising that things have gone the way they have. As I recall, the going explanation is that people blame the party in power for all their problems, so unless things are going so swimmingly at election time that nobody has any real complaints, they'll vote for the other guy because the incumbent party's constituents are disappointed and the other party's constituents are all fired up about their chance to throw off the yoke of oppression. But incumbent advantage trumps (hah!) that, again if I'm remembering correctly, because that party's voters have a particular person to identify with and defend against that filthy enemy tribe party that won't even give his policies a chance. Being able to skip the entire primary process and have an individual person to point to as the defender seems to work pretty well.

As you know, it largely comes down to tribalism, and in a system as heavily polarized as ours, victory comes down to who can appeal to that instinct most strongly. The dynamics of the system tend to favor alternation, and it takes exceptional circumstances to overcome that sort of structural inertia. It does happen, though, and of course the key to being good at this whole political prediction thing is being able to tell when those exceptional cases really do occur.
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At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

RedKing

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3079 on: July 22, 2015, 01:31:35 pm »

I think that take ignores the importance of the candidates themselves. A party that *should* be able to win an election can be upset either by a poor candidate, or the other party's excellent candidate. Honestly, riding the wave of post-Gulf War support (89% support at one point), Bush Sr. should have been able to get re-elected. True, we had a recession, but nothing like what we had in 2008. But Clinton was a dynamic candidate who had outsider status and connected with blue-collar voters. If the Democrats had wound up running Paul Tsongas or Tom Harkin, they'd have lost.

Likewise, popular discontent with Dubya in 2004 *should* have been able to flip the WH. I still think if they had gone with Wesley Clark, they would have won. Possibly even with John Edwards (although I'm glad that fake didn't win). I supported Dean but in retrospect, they'd have lost by a double-digit margin with him. But John Kerry had all the charisma of a wet blanket, lacked "outsider" status (which is key in an "alternation" cycle) and came off as a patrician rather than a Bubba like Clinton did.



I think the difference now is that popular discontent is fomented to a higher degree internally, even in the absence of genuine reasons to be discontented. And that started (imho) with Clinton, where you had a core of media-savvy conservatives inventing all kinds of reasons to hate and fear Bill Clinton, even as the economy and geopolitical position of the US were at a high point. The Cold War was over, the economy was booming, violent crime was on the decline, so what did they rail about? The culture wars and conspiracy theories (black helicopters, Waco, the Turner diaries, etc.)

You didn't see that kind of unhinged railing during Bush I's term (although there was some grumbling about his use of the term "New World Order" to refer to the post-Soviet era). You didn't see it during Reagan, although there was plenty of protesting about real foreign policy issues like Nicaragua and South Africa. You didn't see it during the Carter term. You saw it *some* during Nixon's presidency, but then that was justified by the fact that Nixon was actually batshit paranoid and engaging in conspiracies. And the revelations about things like COINTELPRO and MKULTRA.

The unhinged railing started with Clinton (again, this is purely my opinion), switched sides to the left (and the fringe-right) during Bush's term (jet fuel can't melt steel beams! wake up sheeple!) and then switched back to the right and cranked it up to 11 once Obama took office. I don't remember people seriously suggesting that Bush or Clinton was the literal Antichrist. Or were crypto-Muslims. Or weren't US citizens. There was some talk about Bush Sr. being a lizard person, but then Ickes says that about everybody...
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misko27

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3081 on: July 22, 2015, 05:58:10 pm »

in which clinton, biden, and sanders are losing in iowa, virginia, and colorado to bush, rubio, and walker
But not Trump. Not that polls tremendously relevant at this stage, at least for people who are not republicans polling around 10th place. Like Kasich, who incidentally just announced his likely irrelevant candidacy. It's too bad, seems like a nice guy.

On a completely unrelated note, Donald Trump released Lindsey Graham's personal cellphone number yesterday. They are currently in their own personal war, given how close-to-home Trump's attack on McCain was. Lindsey Graham has since responded with this video, which is one of the most, uh, unique responses to being doxxed. It's also hilarious, and will mark one of the few times I will likely ever see a US Senator take a meat cleaver to an electronic device.
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smjjames

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3082 on: July 22, 2015, 06:25:03 pm »

Kasich probably still has a bit of an advantage from lying low for a while.

Anyways, given how much people already dislike Trump, it'd literally take a miracle for him to get the nomination and then the presidency.
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mainiac

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3083 on: July 22, 2015, 07:23:40 pm »

Anyways, given how much people already dislike Trump, it'd literally take a miracle for him to get the nomination and then the presidency.

Admit it: he's going to win.  People love a spectacle and that's his Trump card.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2015, 07:25:23 pm by mainiac »
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Zrk2

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3084 on: July 22, 2015, 07:42:20 pm »

I kinda want to watch the world burn, if only to watch that magnificent toupee flap in the breeze.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3085 on: July 22, 2015, 08:03:08 pm »

He will make America great again. The United Greats of America: Can't trump that.

Maybe he'd do a full Putin and take control of the American economy by owning all of it. It would certainly solve the problem of corruption as no one would be rich enough to bribe him, excepting of course himself bribing himself.

Dutchling

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3086 on: July 22, 2015, 08:04:21 pm »

excepting of course himself bribing himself.
sitcom

now
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birdy51

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3087 on: July 23, 2015, 05:40:05 am »

I honestly don't know what to make of this election any more.
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SirQuiamus

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Re: Bay12 2016 Freedom Megathread- Explosions and PBR Edition
« Reply #3088 on: July 23, 2015, 06:07:07 am »

When life gives you presidential candidates, make... candidade?

Perhaps you should just dump them into Challenger Deep and start campaigning for 2020 elections.
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FearfulJesuit

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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.
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