So....I started looking at the Congressional races (such as they are at this stage, what with most races not even having candidates yet unless incumbent). It's depressing. Because even 16 months ahead of the election, I can report that unless there's a political wave of epic proportions, the Republicans will retain control of the House and the Democrats would be lucky to get a 50-50 split in the Senate (and that's with the two independents caucusing with them).
The problem (as always, but even more so every election cycle, it seems) is that House districts are gerrymandered to Hell and back, so that there's really only a couple dozen races out of 435 that are remotely competitive. Typically, the only way a House seat flips now is if the incumbent retires and has a weaksauce successor, a rockstar candidate emerges from the other party, or they're caught doing lines of coke off a dead hooker's ass. And even the last one isn't necessarily a show-stopper, depending on the district.
The Senate can't blame gerrymandering, but the incumbency effect is still very powerful, coupled with the fact that fewer states are truly swing states. A state like Oklahoma is going to have two Republican Senators. It just is. The last time OK had a (D) Senator was 25 years ago. And the last time they had TWO of them was just before the 1968 election. And prior to 1968, Democrats in the South weren't exactly your Democrats of today, to say the least. Likewise, California hasn't had a Republican Senator since 1992. (Hell, they've had the SAME two Democratic Senators since 1992 -- Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein).
Now, Boxer is actually retiring and her seat will be up for grabs in the 2016 election, but it's more accurate to say it's up for grabs in the 2016 Democratic primary. Because whoever wins that, wins the seat. Registered Dems outpace registered Repubs in the Golden State 43% to 28%, and most of the independents describe themselves as left-leaning.
So out of the 34 Senate seats up for bids this cycle, a full 24 are Republican seats. But at least half of those could probably be called right now, including the aforementioned Oklahoma seat for James Lankford. Because it's Oklahoma. Lankford would have to show up to campaign events in burnt orange and yelling "HOOK 'EM HORNS!" to stand a chance of losing.
The handful of competitive races are interesting:
1. Wheelchair-bound Ron Kirk (R-IL) trying to hold off double-amputee Iraq War veteran Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) in what can only be called one of the most uncomfortable races in America.
2. Ron Johnson (R-WI) against the man he ousted in 2010, longtime Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). It's like Rocky II, only with less punching and more discussion of campaign finance reform.
3. Nevada: Where nobody in the Democratic Party seems to know who they want to run to succeed Harry Reid, while EVERYBODY in the Nevada Republican Party wants to run, including some folks that really probably shouldn't (remember "Tea Party Witch" Sharron Angle?). On the one hand, Nevada is trending into a blue state with a sizable Latino population. On the other hand, taking the former Speaker's seat is a political trophy that donors like the Koch Bros. will happily dump shittons of money into winning.
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Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée (Read 1577559 times)