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[lijacote]

Hm. What's your opinion on the Syriza-ANEL coalition? Dumb decision, or necessary evil?

I am no expert, but my view is that it is a compromise, a tactical choice, that I don't think is at all ideal. Damage will be mitigated by Syriza having the overwhelming majority in the government, and hopefully by leftists on the field doing the work necessary to keep ANEL in check, not to mention the Golden Dawn. The KKE apparently shot down co-operation with Syriza, considering Syriza to be "the left-reserve of capitalism", which is very reminiscent of the 1930s "social fascism" label that the communists used to isolate themselves into uselessness. Unnecessary sectarianism, which unfortunately is something that communists are familiar with.

But who other than ANEL? Pasok and Nea Dimokratia are both austerity parties, Golden Dawn is an out-and-out Nazi party... To Potami? Potami seems like it'd have been a good fit with SYRIZA, who seems even bizarrely wed to the idea of staying in the euro. Perhaps its more detailed politics were in conflict with SYRIZA somehow? The commenter(s) on the Lenin's Tomb article - a website that I routinely look at - seem to think that To Potami would have sabotaged negotiations with the troika.

Even within SYRIZA, the left is not quite as powerful as it ought to be, so it comes as no surprise that there are few parties that would ally without some damage done to the left's goals.

Wait, this isn't the europol thread? We can pretend that this is something to reflect upon when considering the formation of working class or proletarian parties in the United States.

[Loud Whispers]

Argentine judge orders oil company assets seized

Expect to see more stuff like this in the news, as their election season is coming up soon.

Are they honestly going to try and intercept foreign ships not under their jurisdiction? This is all just political posturing for votebux right?

[mainiac]

Germany is currently 0 dollars, interest free.  It's actually slightly negative but we will just round that off to zero.  Let's suppose the most optimistic economic case, that the cost of German debt finance raises to 1% real interest rate on average for the next 10 years.

What does "real" mean in this sense? I know it means something different in economics than it does in everyday use, but I don't know what

Inflation adjusted in this case.  Germany can borrow at like %0.22 but inflation is %0.30.

[Helgoland]

-snip-

Fuck European solidarity, Helgoland needs some beer money.

I'm afraid 23 bucks worth of beer money won't get me far around here

You're still ignoring the political side though. Economically you are right - if getting the Greek economy out of the pitiful state it is in was the only goal here doing what you propose would be the right thing.

However: Doing that would not be wise politically. In the northern* EU countries the right wing would rise, and contradictory to classical mechanics that would mean the opposite of those countries tipping to the left. And in the southern* EU countries the idea of taking Greece as an example and just trusting Germany to bankroll the party would gain traction. I admit it wouldn't necessarily become government policy, but it would certainly influence the populists there, making their political systems go to shit as well.
The only way to pursue policies like you demand is to do it via baby steps: Slowly and with low visibility. Those Syriza idiots** blew their chances for that though when trading institution goodwill for populist appeal.

*Using these terms broadly
**As far as their negotiating strategies go

But who other than ANEL? Pasok and Nea Dimokratia are both austerity parties, Golden Dawn is an out-and-out Nazi party... To Potami? Potami seems like it'd have been a good fit with SYRIZA, who seems even bizarrely wed to the idea of staying in the euro. Perhaps its more detailed politics were in conflict with SYRIZA somehow? The commenter(s) on the Lenin's Tomb article that I routinely look at seem to think that To Potami would have sabotaged negotiations with the troika.

Bacck when Syriza was voted into office I had big hopes for them - as did many Germans, by the way, even many of those who are now crying for blood. Them choosing ANEL over To Potami was the first big disappointment - maybe it was another instance of the 'social fascism' phenomenon, but you'd think they'd choose social fascists over regular ones...

Germany is currently 0 dollars, interest free.  It's actually slightly negative but we will just round that off to zero.  Let's suppose the most optimistic economic case, that the cost of German debt finance raises to 1% real interest rate on average for the next 10 years.

What does "real" mean in this sense? I know it means something different in economics than it does in everyday use, but I don't know what

It's the opposite of nominal - IIRC it roughly means 'taking inflation into account'. NINJA: Yeah, what maniac said.



Anyway, this is history being written in front of our eyes - is one thread really enough for that?

[mainiac]

However: Doing that would not be wise politically. In the northern* EU countries the right wing would rise, and contradictory to classical mechanics that would mean the opposite of those countries tipping to the left. And in the southern* EU countries the idea of taking Greece as an example and just trusting Germany to bankroll the party would gain traction. I admit it wouldn't necessarily become government policy, but it would certainly influence the populists there, making their political systems go to shit as well.
The only way to pursue policies like you demand is to do it via baby steps: Slowly and with low visibility. Those Syriza idiots** blew their chances for that though when trading institution goodwill for populist appeal.

Tough shit?

The bank bailouts were bad politics in the US.  Well the Obama administration just bit the bullet and solved the problem.  And because Geitner and Obama solved the problem straight away it didn't cost us too much.

You might hate Syriza but that doesn't explain the previous 5 years of shitting on Greece.  Syriza is a result of Troika policy, they didn't travel back in time and force the Troika to be dicks.

And as for it causing other political systems to "go to shit"... what about this situation makes you think that it's not German politics that has gone to shit?

Let's just compare the US and European management of your relative banking interventions:
Unemployment from peak of crisis
US: down 4.5%
EU: down 0.1%

Cost of bank bailouts to taxpayers
US: taxpayer profit of a few billion dollars
EU: taxpayers lost tens of billions of euros and may lose up to 200 billion more.

growth outlook
US: stable, returning to rapid rates sometime in the next few months
EU: central bank predicts rapid return to normal rates in two years.  Central bank has predicted return to normal rates in two years for five straight years

When you find yourself in a hole you stop digging, you dont try to silence anyone who points out the failure.

[Loud Whispers]

Greek bailout thread sounds gud

[Helgoland]

Their political systems going to shit just like the northern ones, both dragged down by populist movements, maniac.

But again you are ignoring the political side: The EU's single biggest handicap has been its inability to act as a unified state, and 'tough shit' may be an understandable reaction to that, but it is nonetheless a silly one. There's no California nationalism against the poor Southerners, but there very much is German nationalism against the Greeks, Greek nationalism against the Germans, etc etc. It's comparing apples and oranges. Yes, we have dug ourselves into a hole, but to get out, we must turn our apple into an orange, not act like a ladder magically appeared out of nowhere.

[Loud Whispers]

The EU's biggest handicap is that it's not a state, yet it pretends to be one

[mainiac]

Their political systems going to shit just like the northern ones, both dragged down by populist movements, maniac.

But again you are ignoring the political side: The EU's single biggest handicap has been its inability to act as a unified state, and 'tough shit' may be an understandable reaction to that, but it is nonetheless a silly one. There's no California nationalism against the poor Southerners, but there very much is German nationalism against the Greeks, Greek nationalism against the Germans, etc etc. It's comparing apples and oranges. Yes, we have dug ourselves into a hole, but to get out, we must turn our apple into an orange, not act like a ladder magically appeared out of nowhere.

So basically it's a bad idea because you dont want to do it.

[Helgoland]

Wait, what? I'm saying that our current political institutions are simply not capable of the policies you want. Feel free to ignore that, but it's true nonetheless.

[mainiac]

Wait, what? I'm saying that our current political institutions are simply not capable of the policies you want. Feel free to ignore that, but it's true nonetheless.

X can't do Y because X never does Y!

[RedKing]

To arms, men! Repel the Euro-invaders from the parapets and drench the thread in red, white and blue!
(Seriously...this probably ought to be moved over to the European politics thread. Just sayin.)

EDIT:
At the Western Conservative Summit in Denver this weekend, a straw poll showed some surprising results.

Ben Carson won with 26%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 23% and Scott Walker at 22%. Rounding out the list was Ted Cruz at 11%, with everyone else in single digits. Interestingly, Huckabee and Santorum only got 1-2% each, despite having spoke at the conference and this being their kind of demographic -- red-meat social conservatives.

Perry and Trump also got about two percent, while Jeb Bush got four votes. Not four percent, four VOTES. Out of 871.

So the general polls seem to be heavily flip-flopped with what the diehard activists are thinking, with the potential exception of Scott Walker again. He's not necessarily everyone's first choice, but he seems to be an acceptable second choice to quite a few folks across the GOP spectrum. Which could be enough to clinch the nom. Unless he pulls a Rick Perry at the debates or something, obviously. I think after Romney, there is a great deal of dislike among GOP rank-and-file for the establishment, moneyed candidates (or frankly, any candidate who's been through this rodeo before). They want an unknown fire-breather, regardless of that person's electability.

[smjjames]

Fire-breather as in one that spews BS and says everything that is stereotypical of Republicans and completely alienates the minorities that the republicans are attempting to court? Trump would fit the bill there.

Or maybe Santorum, ha!

Also, if theres anything to be learned from the last bunch of elections, that's never to rely on straw polls because they are almost never accurate. 871 is a TINY sample anyway.

And Scott Walker needs to get his butt in the ring, he's stretching the unofficial official (or official unofficial official) campaign thing and tying it into a pretzel. Okay maybe not into a pretzel, but definetly stretching it.

[Frumple]

Jeb Bush got four votes. Not four percent, four VOTES. Out of 871.

Warms the cockles of my floridian heart :3

Admittedly probably doesn't mean that much, but still.

[mainiac]

a straw poll showed some surprising results

...not even worthy of a meme picture.