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[Bauglir]

He's probably right on both counts, though he has fairly solid data to back those up (while I have little but reason and vague experience).

[FearfulJesuit]

He's probably right on both counts, though he has fairly solid data to back those up (while I have little but reason and vague experience).

It wouldn't take very much for the GOP to start winning Millennials. There are a lot of young STEM types who'd be just fine voting for the GOP except that its head is completely up its ass on gay marriage, global warming and evolution. Add immigration reform and you're suddenly quite competitive again.

[nenjin]

He's probably right on both counts, though he has fairly solid data to back those up (while I have little but reason and vague experience).

It wouldn't take very much for the GOP to start winning Millennials. There are a lot of young STEM types who'd be just fine voting for the GOP except that its head is completely up its ass on gay marriage, global warming and evolution. Add immigration reform and you're suddenly quite competitive again.

Yeah, wouldn't take much. Just the complete reversal of current popular conservative ideology

[Angle]

...You must be joking. If I had the choice between voting for Zombie Hitler or a republican candidate, I'd probably vote for Zombie Hitler. Add to that the fact that if the GOP changed it's mind on gay marriage, global warming, evolution and immigration reform, they'd lose most of their base, and it's just not happening. What I expect them to do is intensify their attempts to disenfranchise or render politically apathetic anyone besides their core constituency, which to be fair has been working pretty well for them so far.

[FearfulJesuit]

He's probably right on both counts, though he has fairly solid data to back those up (while I have little but reason and vague experience).

It wouldn't take very much for the GOP to start winning Millennials. There are a lot of young STEM types who'd be just fine voting for the GOP except that its head is completely up its ass on gay marriage, global warming and evolution. Add immigration reform and you're suddenly quite competitive again.

Yeah, wouldn't take much. Just the complete reversal of current popular conservative ideology

See John Kasich for a switch on position #1. See Chris Christie and John Huntsman (and, until recently, such luminaries as Mike Huckabee) for a switch on position #2. See Rubio and Bush for #4.

As for #3, I can't name many names, but I bet a number of Northeastern Republicans would fit the bill. I think a lot of the issue is geographic...if the Southern GOP split tomorrow we'd suddenly see much saner rhetoric from the rest of the party.

[nenjin]

That's it though. You've got like 6 contenders that flex on some issues, not others. You don't have one Republican breaking the mold, you have six bending it according to their different personal causes. Which to me looks like a generally confused and divided Republican platform. I'm sure it will be cinched up by the time someone gets the nomination, but I don't think it'll be enough to sway millennials. All it takes is one freshed-face GOP senator saying the same dumb shit the party has been saying for the last 40 years for them to look exactly like the stodgy old white guys they will eventually become. Which describes, oh, pretty much everyone who has thrown their hat in so far.

I'm interested to see what Lindsey Graham does. Next to Jeb he'd be one of the most well-known candidates so far, and could pretty much do and say nothing in a debate and still look more competent than Rubio etc...just by virtue of his time on the Hill. If he decides to announce, I expect the Republican primaries to become even more cutthroat.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

This implies that the GOP wants anything to do with the millennial vote. They don't. That's isn't their base, hell, it's barely even their periphery. It's not sustainable, sure, but that's a problem for tomorrow's politicians.

[nenjin]

This implies that the GOP wants anything to do with the millennial vote. They don't. That's isn't their base, hell, it's barely even their periphery. It's not sustainable, sure, but that's a problem for tomorrow's politicians.

Yeah but they realized with both Obama's wins that they need millenials voting for them. It doesn't matter if, after the election, they go back to courting the ultra-conservative, religious, gay-hating business tycoons. They'll have won. But I don't think they're dismissing the millenial vote. Not if all the awkward and embarrassing attempts to connect them to conservative ideology are any indicator.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It's just that they're got a bind to even make that electoral outreach. It's so awkward because being too forward with young people will have your actual base start muttering about treason. If that line is crossed, an invisible line at that, it's game over. Just look at Nate Silver's analysis of Christie, he's an unsellable brand now. There's not much forgiveness from these constituencies.

[FearfulJesuit]

Support can switch parties quite quickly under certain circumstances. In 1976, Carter won over half the white evangelical vote and with it every single state in the former Confederacy except Virginia. Then Reagan happened, and white evangelicals have been the GOP's base of support ever since. Immigration reform certainly won't make the Hispanic vote a GOP lock, but it will probably make it more competitive, especially given that Hispanics tend to be more socially conservative than white Democrats.

[RedKing]

As for #3, I can't name many names, but I bet a number of Northeastern Republicans would fit the bill. I think a lot of the issue is geographic...if the Southern GOP split tomorrow we'd suddenly see much saner rhetoric from the rest of the party.

I have to take issue with this. Yes, the core of the social conservative wing of the party has its origins in the south. But let's not forget that you have diehard scions of that wing from places like Indiana, Ohio, and the Rocky Mountain West. The South is not necessarily the source of all evils in the US political system. There's a natural tendency in liberal circles to write off the South (and even Southern progressives) as a lost cause.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I deeply question the analysis of Hispanics as social conservatives waiting to happen. It's been a while since I had the data to present, but Hispanics tend to be both pro-choice and on the positive side of ambivalent for gay rights. I don't recall the polls regarding drug liberalization, but there have to be at least some Mexican-Americans who buy into the idea that it will undercut the cartels.

[RedKing]

Not so sure about the pro-choice bit. Hispanics and the Pope be tight, yo.

[FearfulJesuit]

Not so sure about the pro-choice bit. Hispanics and the Pope be tight, yo.

Yeah, it really does depend on your definition of "socially conservative"...there might be a generational gap between first- and second-generation Hispanics. Abortion's illegal, no exceptions, in every single country in Latin America except Uruguay. Even in Argentina, which has some of the world's most progressive policies on LGBT matters, 67% of the population opposes liberalizing the country's abortion ban; 73% of Mexicans oppose legalizing abortion.

(Of course, you could also argue that abortion doesn't act like other social issues. It certainly doesn't: compare Argentina to Russia, where abortion is freely available. This is one of the reasons why, although I'm reluctantly pro-choice myself, I'm skeptical of claims that one must be pro-choice to be a good progressive. It really only operates that way in the US and western Europe.)

[nenjin]

It's just that they're got a bind to even make that electoral outreach. It's so awkward because being too forward with young people will have your actual base start muttering about treason. If that line is crossed, an invisible line at that, it's game over. Just look at Nate Silver's analysis of Christie, he's an unsellable brand now. There's not much forgiveness from these constituencies.

Christie's unpopularity has a lot of sources. From being overweight, to practicing revenge politics, to having a big mouth, to walking the Jersey Shore with Obama. He pissed off members of his own party the last couple of years, and I think they've been making a concerted effort to dismiss him before he gains national popularity. It would seemed to have worked, with the base. Honestly though, I think Christie has unfavorable ratings because he's one of the few politicians out there that, for better or worse, doesn't mince his words. So he's said and done more which can be criticized, as a governor, versus members of Congress who have basically done fuck all for the last two years. They can't be attacked because they haven't done anything, and haven't said anything out of the ordinary for House Republicans.

I find it interesting that the Republican old guard of the Senate (minus McCain anyways) have been pretty quiet so far. I wonder if they're unsettled by the landscape too.

Which is why I'm interested in seeing what Graham does. I would not be surprised if he announces and suddenly the bulk of the Republican leadership starts having something to say again.

I deeply question the analysis of Hispanics as social conservatives waiting to happen. It's been a while since I had the data to present, but Hispanics tend to be both pro-choice and on the positive side of ambivalent for gay rights. I don't recall the polls regarding drug liberalization, but there have to be at least some Mexican-Americans who buy into the idea that it will undercut the cartels.

I'd say this is accurate for the newest generation of Latinos. However, my grandmother is a first generation Mexican immigrant and....she's about as conservative as they come.

I think the perception of Latinos as not conservative is driven by how they're the right's favorite punching bag, and the fact they're poor. If they weren't so poor and socially vulnerable (like my Grandmother) I suspect they'd align conservative more often that not.