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[Karlito]

Yeah, that was the impression I got.

[mainiac]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIGMUAMevH0

[smjjames]

Now there's a fourth other/uncommitted delegate. I wonder how those came about....

[RedKing]

FOX News has called Nevada for Clinton. Have to grudgingly admit that I agree. Unless there's a groundswell of Sanders-supporting slow precincts in Clark County, she's got this one.

And thus begins her inexorable death march to the White House.

[Rolan7]

A lot of news is gonna be well nigh useless.  2/3rds of the population lives in Clark County (Vegas) while half the rest lives in Washoe (New Reno) so if we get reports from other counties, they're basically telling us nothing.

I haven't caught up yet, but this made me think of New Vegas...
Vote Tandi not Caesar

Oh wait Tandi's dead and buried

Vote against Caesar I guess

[Sheb]

Is Nevada winner-takes-all?

[smjjames]

Is Nevada winner-takes-all?

Don't think so, we haven't gotten to any of those states. Actually, I'm not sure which states are truly winner-takes-all during the primaries.

[RedKing]

Is Nevada winner-takes-all?

Nope. Sanders could well end up in a tie or near-tie (or even lead) in delegates, because of the way delegates are apportioned.

But the popular impression will be "CLINTON WINS".

Is Nevada winner-takes-all?

Don't think so, we haven't gotten to any of those states. Actually, I'm not sure which states are truly winner-takes-all during the primaries.

For the GOP races, it's based on date. Everything prior to March 15 is proportional. Everything from March 15 onward is winner-take-all. This was a change instituted after 2012 to try and speed up the primary season and avoid a long, drawn-out battle like they had with Romney-Santorum-Paul.

Damned if I can find any info on which Democratic primaries are winner-take-all.

[smjjames]

Yeah, LA times called it for Clinton, Politico has called it, as has CNN. Now, just a couple hours before the SC polls close

[RedKing]

Projections are that Clinton picks up 18 delegates, Sanders 14, and 3 more unallocated as of yet. Regardless how those go, Hillary won the delegate race here too.

FUCK.


Ok, time to pivot to Lesser Carolina and see what madness lies therein.

[TheBiggerFish]

D'argh.

[mainiac]

But the popular impression will be "CLINTON WINS".

I dont think impressions are all that important anymore. What's matters at this point is that the results give us beyesian style information about what to expect going forward.  With 74% reporting, Clinton has 4.5% compared to the about 6% she was projected to win from the national polls.  So the state was a little less Clinton friendly (so far) then we would expect but the advantage that the national polls point to appears to be real but not as big as the polls suggest.  Voters tend to break late for Bernie in all contests so far.  Of course that is a sample size of 3 so have the salt handy.

I expect that prediction markets wont move at all on this result.  If Clinton had done as expected, that would be a win for her.  If Bernie had made this nearly a tie that would indicate his support was bigger then national polls suggest.  This makes the best guess of the Clinton margin smaller but also makes our uncertainty smaller and those basically are balanced.

[smjjames]

And 3 of those are super delegates :p Actually, even without the superdelegates, sanders would still be behind, just not by quite as much.

[mainiac]

The super delegate advantage isn't really that big.  If Sanders actually won a majority of pledged delegates, the unpledged super delegates would probably break for him strongly and a few of Clinton's superdelegates would jump ship.  They dont exist in a vacuum.

[RedKing]

Exit polling showing Clinton winning the black vote 76-22. South Carolina is going to be a massacre.
#HillarySoBlack