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[mainiac]

So they're socialist French-Belgian guns.

FTFY.

[nenjin]

https://twitter.com/GarciaHortolano/status/699728313649131520

The Jeb campaign will endure any amount of internet mocking if it sways just one wizard to change their vote.

"One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong........"

[mainiac]

I'm missing your joke.

[nenjin]

You have a page full of badass fantasy weapons, staves, rods, swords....

And then Jeb Bush's sorry ass pops in there with the Homeowner's special.

[RedKing]

New Polls!

A slew of them today, from Quinnipiac, CNN and ARG.

Nevada -- Dems (CNN)

Clinton 48
Sanders 47

Ruh-roh! Looks like the previous Nevada poll (which was understandably dubious) that showed Nevada as a dead heat isn't such an outlier after all. The caucus is only three days away.


South Carolina -- GOP
There's several polls in the last two days, so we'll just cover the aggregate score:

Trump 35
Cruz 17.5
Rubio 15.8
Bush 10.3
Kasich 9.0
Carson 5.8

There's a fair bit of variability in the #4 track. Bush scores anywhere from 7 to 15% and Kasich from 4 to 14%.
Trump, Cruz and Rubio are more consistent (33-38, 14-22 and 14-18, respectively). Trump wins every poll, Cruz places 2nd in all but the ARG poll, and Rubio places 3rd in all but the ARG poll, where he places 2nd. Should be noted that the ARG poll actually has Kasich tied for 3rd with 14%, so it may be something of an outlier. Again, the primary is in three days.


South Carolina -- Dem
Aggregate has Clinton with a 21.1-point lead on Sanders. Most polls have her a bit lower than that (+18 to +21) but it's skewed out by an ARG poll that shows Clinton at +30. I'm not a fan of ARG, because their results seem to be outliers compared to other polls, and they don't publish crosstabs. Would like to see 538 do another ranking of pollsters and see where they fit.

Nevada -- GOP (CNN)
Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Kasich 7
Carson 5
Bush 1

Makes sense that Trump would poll well in Nevada -- he's got a major presence in Vegas. Though 45% is....YUUUGE.
Bush at 1% is just sad. When you're sub-Carson, that's a warning sign.


EDIT: Found it...538 gave them a C-, and in another article in 2012 stated that ARG had "long been unreliable". So take those results with a block of salt.

[lemon10]

Thieves are fucking scum and deserve what they get. I prefer the world where you know trying to steal might cost you more than some ineffectual yelling by your disarmed, disaffected victims to one where we have the knowledge that you can probably rob someone without fear as long as you don't directly attack them or are in view of any cops.

So you are an advocate for vigilante justice?
You think that if someone wrongs you its fair to track them down and murder them? Because that really seems to be what you are saying.

Yes, this dude (like the vast majority of muggers) was probably an asshole, but he still lives in a society where murder or violent assault isn't an acceptable thing to do to someone that is running away.

[Zangi]

Yes, this dude (like the vast majority of muggers) was probably an asshole, but he still lives in a society where murder or violent assault isn't an acceptable thing to do to someone that is running away.

Unless you are a cop. 

[RedKing]

Yes, this dude (like the vast majority of muggers) was probably an asshole, but he still lives in a society where murder or violent assault isn't an acceptable thing to do to someone that is running away.

Unless you are a cop. 

Which is in part because they deal with dudes like this all day long, and get desensitized to the fact that they're still citizens with rights.

[smjjames]

Nevada -- GOP (CNN)
Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Kasich 7
Carson 5
Bush 1

Makes sense that Trump would poll well in Nevada -- he's got a major presence in Vegas. Though 45% is....YUUUGE.
Bush at 1% is just sad. When you're sub-Carson, that's a warning sign.


EDIT: Found it...538 gave them a C-, and in another article in 2012 stated that ARG had "long been unreliable". So take those results with a block of salt.

Ouch, lol, that's gotta sting. Though we'd need more polls to see if that's an anomaly or not.

For SC, it looks like a massive fight for second and third place.

[smirk]

South Carolina -- Dem
Aggregate has Clinton with a 21.1-point lead on Sanders. Most polls have her a bit lower than that (+18 to +21) but it's skewed out by an ARG poll that shows Clinton at +30. I'm not a fan of ARG, because their results seem to be outliers compared to other polls, and they don't publish crosstabs. Would like to see 538 do another ranking of pollsters and see where they fit.

That margin keeps eroding. Clinton is still a lock for SC, but not by nearly as much as you'd expect from earlier numbers. The Dems' Super Tuesday might actually get exciting.

[smjjames]

South Carolina -- Dem
Aggregate has Clinton with a 21.1-point lead on Sanders. Most polls have her a bit lower than that (+18 to +21) but it's skewed out by an ARG poll that shows Clinton at +30. I'm not a fan of ARG, because their results seem to be outliers compared to other polls, and they don't publish crosstabs. Would like to see 538 do another ranking of pollsters and see where they fit.

That margin keeps eroding. Clinton is still a lock for SC, but not by nearly as much as you'd expect from earlier numbers. The Dems' Super Tuesday might actually get exciting.

I think it'll be a roller coaster ride for both parties.

[alway]

So the FBI got a court order to make Apple build backdoors to hack itself. Apple has decided not to take it up the ass. https://www.apple.com/customer-letter/

[Egan_BW]

Protip: don't put backdoors in things if you want them to be secure.

[RedKing]

South Carolina -- Dem
Aggregate has Clinton with a 21.1-point lead on Sanders. Most polls have her a bit lower than that (+18 to +21) but it's skewed out by an ARG poll that shows Clinton at +30. I'm not a fan of ARG, because their results seem to be outliers compared to other polls, and they don't publish crosstabs. Would like to see 538 do another ranking of pollsters and see where they fit.

That margin keeps eroding. Clinton is still a lock for SC, but not by nearly as much as you'd expect from earlier numbers. The Dems' Super Tuesday might actually get exciting.

I think it'll be a roller coaster ride for both parties.

Yeah, Super Tuesday is going to be sheer chaos. And atop it all will be a grinning Nyarlotrump, surrounded by abominations which dance and gibber wildly in worship of their blind idiot god.

Let's see....by Super Tuesday, Carson should be gone. Depending on how Nevada and SC go, Bush and/or Kasich could be gone. Rubio looks too strong currently to wash out.
If the establishment track has coalesced around a single candidate by then, Trump could potentially lose in a few states. If that track is still split between Rubio/Bush or Rubio/Kasich (or god forbid, Rubio/Bush/Kasich) then I think Trump makes a full sweep of the Super Tuesday states, even if it's with only 35-38%. Ted Cruz seems to have a plateau that's even shallower than Trump's (I'd love to see some updated polling on Cruz's net favorability ratings among GOP voters -- he seems deeply disliked by a lot of people). So I think Cruz has no shot at this thing except in possibly a few Bible-thumper rural states *or* if Rubio, Bush and Kasich were to all drop out and the establishment choke back its gag reflex and back Cruz.

For the Dems.....I have no idea how that's going to go. If Sanders wins Nevada and then loses by an unexpectedly close margin (say 10 points or less) in South Carolina, that could have huge momentum effects.

[Descan]

What would happen if Sanders won SC?

Like I realize asking that is akin to asking "What if the sun just suddenly turned into a pumpkin the size of Texas?" but humour me.