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[smjjames]

Hm, with the four latest polls, there seems to be a hint of a Bush and Kasich surge,

Looks like they lead Rubio in a poll!

Man I will feel so smug if Rubio drops out after all the prediction markets had him above 50%.

Man, if I was a gambler I would be selling the shit out of Rubio right now in futures markets.  I think there is at least a 50-50 chance he doesn't get 2nd place in New Hampshire.  If that happens his futures will drop way more then if he gets seconds.

Well, one of them anyway, theres one that has him tied with Kasich and in another he gets topped over by Cruz. It just looks chaotic and unpredictable.

I seriously doubt Rubio is going to drop out after NH. If anything, it'll be Super Tuesday that does him in. He could very well decide to tough it out until the convention.

[Nullsrc]

Rubio might do better in NH due to the general distaste for Cruz in places where most of the voters don't identify as "very conservative" and the fact that Trump may be starting to lose his edge (this has been said about 40 times now, though, so statistically he'll do fine.) I would imagine that the main word going into this next election for the GOP candidates is "electable," something at which Rubio seems to stand out nicely as someone who does better at drawing from a wider range of ideologies.

If it was just the Republicans fracturing like this, I would predict a Democrat victory in the actual electin, but with the split between Clinton and Sanders, it's up in the air.

Also, does it make me a bad person to hope that all of this nonsense just causes a complete collapse of both parties and we come up with something better than the two-party system?

(Disclaimer: eeeevil conservative; take all opinions with grain of salt.)

[mainiac]

but with the split between Clinton and Sanders, it's up in the air.

What split?  There's like a better then 80% chance that Clinton wins and there's like a better then 99% chance that the losing candidate endorses the winner.

I would imagine that the main word going into this next election for the GOP candidates is "electable,"

It's a bit tricky to know what electable is, since Trump has hijacked things and ruined the normal process where the candidates are evaluated.

[Nullsrc]

I still see it playing out where Clinton is nominated and then much of the Sanders supporters refuse to flock to her, but I don't have much experience watching these things play out.

[TheDarkStar]

Or Hillary and Cruz get the nomination, Sanders and Trump run as independents, and everyone panics.

[Nullsrc]

Mass political panic sounds fun.... If we're going down, might as well enjoy the ride!

[TheBiggerFish]

Yes, that would be !!FUN!! and not at all a reason to move to Canada.
Though, independent President, yes please.  Just, not Trump!

[smjjames]

Sanders has said that he's willing to take it all the way to the convention, so, yeah.

[mainiac]

So yeah, what?

[misko27]

Mass political panic sounds fun.... If we're going down, might as well enjoy the ride!

Now see, my opinion is "If panic sounds like fun, it says more about you then anything else".

[Powder Miner]

TBF, I'm curious, what is it you see in having an independent president?

[Ghills]

TBF, I'm curious, what is it you see in having an independent president?

Idealists assume that an independent president would be able to better navigate the current political gridlock caused by serious partisan disagreement.  Some people also view it as a form of protest, a way of saying that both parties are so horrible neither should have the presidency.

It wouldn't work out well - independents lack the party structure behind them, so it would probably be worse - but that's the idea.  It would represent a sea change in voter thinking, which I'm all for, but it's pretty much a pipe dream.

[TheBiggerFish]

It'd be a break from the Democrats and Republicans, mostly.

[mainiac]

It'd be a break from the Democrats and Republicans, mostly.

But a break to what?  Trump would be a break from the two parties.  Sure he says he is a republican but he's pretty iconoclastic.  "Independent" describes a lot of possibilities.  Joe Lieberman was an independent and I think we all would be better off without that chapter of politics.

[TheBiggerFish]

I don't know, it'd just be different for once.