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[RedKing]

Also, evidently Gary Johnson is running again as Libertarian. Apparently since 2012 he owned up a company that sells THC lozenges.

SHUT UP AND TAKE MY VOTE

[BurnedToast]

How do they think Sanders has such a low chance?

Because sanders has a very low chance of winning.

Here's the thing - the internet is very, very easy to make into a giant echo chamber where you only hear people saying things you agree with. Sanders is incredibly popular with 18 to 20-something white, middle class college students, who also happen to dominate social media. So it feels like sanders is neck and neck with clinton, because that's all you hear, echoed back at you over and over. The media helps fuel this because "queen clinton still only democratic candidate" makes really poor news so they play sanders up to sell papers draw those ad clicks.

However, in reality, he's doomed. He needed to win iowa by a landslide (or at least, by a very healthy margin) and he didn't, he lost.

Why? Sanders polls very, very poorly with minorities (especially blacks). I'm not sure what the current numbers are, but at one point it was 79% of black democrats supported clinton, and 19% supported sanders. Why does this matter? Because iowa is the 3rd whitest state in the country (~90% white). It's one of the most demographically favorable states for him and he still lost, what does that say about his chances in less favorable states?

He's probably going to win new hampshire (2nd whitest state). He has a chance in nevada (though not a very good one). Then he's going to get crushed in south carolina (over 50% of democratic voters in s. carolina are black) and then comes super tuesday when most of the rest of the country (which is significantly more racially diverse than iowa) votes.

So he's got less than month to swing a large percent of the black vote his way. Impossible? no. However it's not very likely, hence his low chance.

[PTTG??]

How do they think Sanders has such a low chance?

Because sanders has a very low chance of winning.

Here's the thing - the internet is very, very easy to make into a giant echo chamber where you only hear people saying things you agree with. Sanders is incredibly popular with 18 to 20-something white, middle class college students, who also happen to dominate social media...

And they don't vote, so it's even worse.

[mainiac]

Sometimes they do.  We call those good years.

[RedKing]

Well, he has to get his party nomination first.

He's up against John McAfee.

oh shits.....RUN GARY HE'S GOT A GUN

@BurnedToast: Yes, thank you. We've already had that argument several pages back.

@PTTG: Neither do black people, historically. 2008 and 2012 were something of an aberration (an understandable one but still an aberration). In the 1990s, black voter turnout in Presidential elections hovered around 48-50%. Compared to 69% in 2008 and 67% in 2012. If black voters go back to pre-Obama levels, we could be talking millions of "missing" votes in November.

[Flying Dice]

Rand Paul just dropped out, to focus on his senate race instead apparently: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/rand-paul-dropping-out-of-white-house-race-218675

edit: Seems that he made the decision on Monday but didn't officially drop out until today.

Also, Trump is a tantrumming sore loser.

Probably for the best, honestly. I like Paul, and think he's, y'know, sane, and not a weasel, unlike nearly everyone else running...but he'll get more done in the Senate. Plus, this'll probably mean his good ideas get passed, and the crazy ones stay crazy.

You wouldn't like him if you lived in Kentucky.

[penguinofhonor]

My first thought reading that was "No, he's a weasel. Don't worry."

[RedKing]

A crouching weasel, according to some.

[smjjames]

Santorum is dropping out: http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/rick-santorum-dropping-presidential-bid/index.html He's making the formal announcement later.

[mainiac]

Santorum is dropping out: http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/rick-santorum-dropping-presidential-bid/index.html He's making the formal announcement later.

Ouch, that really messes with my predictions.

[RedKing]

Woohoo! So far my upper tier of dropouts is looking pretty good. I just have to hope that Kasich has the balls that Lindsey Graham lacked.

[mainiac]

But you missed Graham who dropped out more then a month before a lot of people you had going before him.  The scoring is by the number of days off.  So if Christie doesn't drop out for another two weeks you are losing 55 days on Graham and Christie each.

[RedKing]

That's why I have to hope Kasich has testicular fortitude to hold out a long while, because most of the rest of you had him dropping early.
Right?

I thought scoring was based somehow off the order as well?

[mainiac]

Well if your ordering of two candidates is right then you get a score of 0 for them which is good.  I linked the to rules in my signature for future reference.

[RedKing]

I....have no idea how all this works then. Which puts me on par with Ben Carson.

Dropouts are a one-cow nation: Polls. And votes.


EDIT: Also, pardon me I just have to make a phone call to a guy in Newark about some...uhh....kneecapshubcaps that I need brokenordered.