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[smjjames]

From David Wassermann on 538:
"Let’s check in on something that we haven’t touched on in a bit: GOP delegate math. If current results hold up, Cruz will win 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio 7 delegates each. By our estimates, Cruz and Trump needed 12 to be “on track” for the nomination, and Rubio needed 10. Granted, Iowa accounts for just 1.2 percent of all delegates to the GOP convention. However, so far Rubio is 70 percent on track, Cruz is 67 percent on track, and Trump is only 58 percent on track."

If the three-way split pattern holds up into Super Tuesday, then a brokered convention could very well become inevitable.

[Spehss _]

From David Wassermann on 538:
"Let’s check in on something that we haven’t touched on in a bit: GOP delegate math. If current results hold up, Cruz will win 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio 7 delegates each. By our estimates, Cruz and Trump needed 12 to be “on track” for the nomination, and Rubio needed 10. Granted, Iowa accounts for just 1.2 percent of all delegates to the GOP convention. However, so far Rubio is 70 percent on track, Cruz is 67 percent on track, and Trump is only 58 percent on track."

If the three-way split pattern holds up into Super Tuesday, then a brokered convention could very well become inevitable.

Trump and Rubio would be tied with 7 delegates but Rubio would have a 12% lead over Trump and 3% lead on Cruz, who has 1 more delegate than Rubio. I don't get it.

[smjjames]

From David Wassermann on 538:
"Let’s check in on something that we haven’t touched on in a bit: GOP delegate math. If current results hold up, Cruz will win 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio 7 delegates each. By our estimates, Cruz and Trump needed 12 to be “on track” for the nomination, and Rubio needed 10. Granted, Iowa accounts for just 1.2 percent of all delegates to the GOP convention. However, so far Rubio is 70 percent on track, Cruz is 67 percent on track, and Trump is only 58 percent on track."

If the three-way split pattern holds up into Super Tuesday, then a brokered convention could very well become inevitable.

Trump and Rubio would be tied with 7 delegates but Rubio would have a 12% lead over Trump and 3% lead on Cruz, who has 1 more delegate than Rubio. I don't get it.

Don't ask me, ask the person who said it. *shrug* Might have to do with endorsements.

[RedKing]

From David Wassermann on 538:
"Let’s check in on something that we haven’t touched on in a bit: GOP delegate math. If current results hold up, Cruz will win 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio 7 delegates each. By our estimates, Cruz and Trump needed 12 to be “on track” for the nomination, and Rubio needed 10. Granted, Iowa accounts for just 1.2 percent of all delegates to the GOP convention. However, so far Rubio is 70 percent on track, Cruz is 67 percent on track, and Trump is only 58 percent on track."

If the three-way split pattern holds up into Super Tuesday, then a brokered convention could very well become inevitable.

Trump and Rubio would be tied with 7 delegates but Rubio would have a 12% lead over Trump and 3% lead on Cruz, who has 1 more delegate than Rubio. I don't get it.

They're looking at predicted margins of victory (and subsequent delegate count) in upcoming races. For instance, Cruz will likely fare exceedingly poorly in New Hampshire, while Rubio will fare well in Florida. Cruz doesn't necessarily have the same strong showing in Texas.

EDIT: Which means it's pretty much all bullshit this far out. Math in those other contests will change tremendously between now and Super Tuesday.

EDIT#2: Gilmore picked up another vote, people! We're up to 12 now! #GilMoarVotes

[redwallzyl]

another one gone. and no one is sad to see him go.

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/01/465224882/mike-huckabee-ends-his-white-house-campaign

[origamiscienceguy]

Speeches just finished. Ted cruz makes it very obvious that he is a christian.

[RedKing]

Some weird math going on with the Dem totals....Clinton went from 0.2% up to 0.8% up, and now back to 0.2% with just 1% more precincts reporting.

[smjjames]

Some weird math going on with the Dem totals....Clinton went from 0.2% up to 0.8% up, and now back to 0.2% with just 1% more precincts reporting.

Well, the numbers are very close, so, a small change is going to look large this close together.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Even if she wins, she already didn't win by enough to sustain the hype. Or so I can only hope.

[RedKing]

Some weird math going on with the Dem totals....Clinton went from 0.2% up to 0.8% up, and now back to 0.2% with just 1% more precincts reporting.

Well, the numbers are very close, so, a small change is going to look large this close together.

Except that with more votes, 0.6% should be a larger and larger number. Ohhhhh, except that the Dems aren't counting total votes, they're counting precincts won. So 0.6% might be 6 or 7 precincts.

[mainiac]

Still, coming that damn close in a state that's not demographically friendly to him

Iowa is the third most favorable state for Sanders in the union according to 538 and Cook political report.  So unless he's running for president of Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont...

[Aqizzar]

Some weird math going on with the Dem totals....Clinton went from 0.2% up to 0.8% up, and now back to 0.2% with just 1% more precincts reporting.

Well, the numbers are very close, so, a small change is going to look large this close together.

The poll site I'm F5-ing like the motherfucking fist of the north star shows Clinton 657 caucuses to Sanders 654 caucussss, with 94% of caucii reporting.

Iown, stop toying with my heart dammit.  I want drama!

[smjjames]

I'd sooner have a brokered convention than a Sanders nomination anyway.

Why do you want Clinton anyway, Canadian*?

*I mean that in a joking tone.

[mainiac]

Oh, I just want to see a brokered convention. I don't actually care who wins.

It's been too long since the Chicago police attacked hippies on the streets.

[Bauglir]

i'm just happy that the iowa caucuses have told us even less than usual

it's really an achievement, if you think about it