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[smjjames]

Back up again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PDImv-ibLI

[RedKing]

Somehow I think there are no geniuses, strategic or otherwise, amongst their ranks. Not even an idiot savant.

[smjjames]

Nothing going on right now, though I think I hear the excavator in the background.

It went down again for a bit and then back up, with their camera guy coming by and saying something a couple times, don't know what was said because I'm hard of hearing.

If they think the choppers or whatever are going to go over that specific spot, they are utter fools. Sure it would look dramatically cool, but you don't attack where your enemy is expecting you.

edit: eh, nothing happening right now and it went down again.

[RedKing]

Guess I missed the airdrop of those retired Navy SEALS that were only 30 minutes out. Or the other various militias that were 30 minutes out.

Bet it's starting to have that mood when you plan for a big party and then no one shows up.
EDIT: Only....you know, with snipers and anti-government rants.

[BurnedToast]

oh god they've been livestreaming it for hours and I missed it all?

I sincerely hope they are reading the chat, it's like pure distilled youtube shit-post comments but LIVE, and apparently what all the youtubers want is redneck blood.

At one point he claimed there were gunshots.... but oops, it was just the machinery. What a goddamn genius. Then he said "false alarm, we aren't dead yet... but soon" and sounded happy about it.

Then he fiddled with the camera broke the stream again.

This whole thing is so surreal.

[smjjames]

The FBI is speaking soon on that Oregon standoff.

[mainiac]

538 (or at least the person who wrote the article) seems to think Trump skipping the debate is another sign that the GOP is failing

I'm wondering if this is the hot hand fallacy in action.  Trump has had a run of successes.  However this latest move seems very stupid.  Just because he has had past successes doesn't mean he isn't capable of making stupid moves.  While it's true that beyesian updates to our priors means we should conclude that he's probably not as stupid as we thought six months ago, it's also probably true that he is lucky he tried this strategy in 2016 instead of say 2012 where it probably would have failed miserably.  So even if there is a permanent "zigs when others zag" effect, there is also a "lucky guesses" element of random noise.  To me it seems that sooner or later the random noise should lead to him doing something spectacularly stupid like skipping the last debate before the iowa primary.  If he hadn't been lucky in the past, everyone would without a doubt label it a really boneheaded move.  His past luck shouldn't change our conclusion.

[Bouchart]

Trump smelled a rat

[mainiac]

*sigh*

[RedKing]

Oh look, a Breitbart sighting.


Meanwhile, back at the ranch.....

The stream appears to be back up, and dude is ranting shit over the phone.
Also, dude's IM notification on his phone is the sound of a silenced pistol doing a double-tap. For a second there, we all thought shit had finally gone down.

[smjjames]

Oh look, a Breitbart sighting.


Meanwhile, back at the ranch.....

The stream appears to be back up, and dude is ranting shit over the phone.
Also, dude's IM notification on his phone is the sound of a silenced pistol doing a double-tap. For a second there, we all thought shit had finally gone down.

What kind of nut has that as a ringtone. Lol.......

edit: Oh look, a slightly different view of the hill

[hector13]

What kind of nut has that as a ringtone. Lol.......

Do we need to remind you that he's part of a group that is presently occupying a government building (admittedly in the middle of nowhere) with guns and is apparently expecting to be killed by the government shortly?

[RedKing]

"Don't let them shoot your dick off!"

-- not exactly on par with "Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes" but probably a lot more practical advice.

[smjjames]

What kind of nut has that as a ringtone. Lol.......

Do we need to remind you that he's part of a group that is presently occupying a government building (admittedly in the middle of nowhere) with guns and is apparently expecting to be killed by the government shortly?

That was a rhetorical question.

Also, chat on there yammering about a helicopter, I don't hear one, and the view is still on the hilltop.

[RedKing]

Oh, I definitely hear the chopper. Seen it go across the frame a couple of times too. Sounds like it's circling.