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Author Topic: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan  (Read 7382 times)

Bohandas

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #60 on: November 18, 2014, 06:34:21 pm »

You need to stock up on aqua fortis/nitric acid, oil of vitriol/sulfuric acid, and wood pulp. These can be combined to make gelignite.
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werty892

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #61 on: November 18, 2014, 06:35:25 pm »

Oh god, this thread. Time to be debbie downer.

canned foods

Quote from: Wikipedia
Foodborne botulism results from contaminated foodstuffs in which C. botulinum spores have been allowed to germinate and produce botulism toxin,[21] and this typically occurs in canned non-acidic food substances. C. botulinum prefers low oxygen environments, and can therefore grow in canned foods.[21] Botulism is a rare but serious paralytic illness, leading to paralysis that typically starts with the muscles of the face and then spreads towards the limbs.[22] In severe forms, it leads to paralysis of the breathing muscles and causes respiratory failure. In view of this life-threatening complication, all suspected cases of botulism are treated as medical emergencies, and public health officials are usually involved to prevent further cases from the same source.[22]
Yeahhh.... Have fun. Canned goods, while they do last for a while, are like a landmine after some time.

Let me roll down apocalypse scenarios, to explain how fucked we are.
Zombies:Are they fast, are they slow, nobody knows! Hell, zombies could fly and shoot lasers out their ass for all we know. Are there super zombies, a la Left 4 Dead? Who knows? However, this is probably the one we are LEAST hosed in, since zombies are so ingrained into our culture that everyone knows what they are. Worse case scenario is L4D zombies combined with the whole not dying in one shot thing, like most people, if they ceased to have most bodily functions. Also, we could wait them out.

VME, GRB, things that rely on the universe not giving us the middle finger:We are hosed. Nothing we can do.

Large Impact:Hosed, again...
Quote from: Wikipedia
The K–Pg extinction event was severe, global, rapid, and selective. In terms of severity, the event eliminated a vast number of species. Based on marine fossils, it is estimated that 75% or more of all species were wiped out by the K–Pg extinction....

The impact would have caused some of the largest megatsunamis in Earth's history. A cloud of super-heated dust, ash and steam would have spread from the crater as the impactor burrowed underground in less than a second.[24] Excavated material along with pieces of the impactor, ejected out of the atmosphere by the blast, would have been heated to incandescence upon re-entry, broiling the Earth's surface and possibly igniting wildfires; meanwhile, colossal shock waves would have triggered global earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.[25] The emission of dust and particles could have covered the entire surface of the Earth for several years, possibly a decade, creating a harsh environment for living things. The shock production of carbon dioxide caused by the destruction of carbonate rocks would have led to a sudden greenhouse effect.[26] Over a longer period, sunlight would have been blocked from reaching the surface of the earth by the dust particles in the atmosphere, cooling the surface dramatically. Photosynthesis by plants would also have been interrupted, affecting the entire food chain.

So yeah, except those lucky fuckers sitting in a bunker somewhere(and they may get taken out by the shock and earthquakes fucking everywhere on the planet) with a decade of food, we are hosed. This data is based of Chicxulub, the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs.

Nuclear War:
Quote from: Wikipedia
A major nuclear exchange would have long-term effects, primarily from the fallout released, and could also lead to a "nuclear winter" that could last for decades, centuries, or even millennia after the initial attack.[1][2] Some analysts claim that with this potential nuclear winter side-effect of a nuclear war almost every human on Earth could starve to death,[3][4]

A 2008 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science found that a nuclear weapons exchange between Pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near-global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and causing environmental damage for at least a decade.[34]

Ozone holes for everyone! Seriously, the smallest exchanges screw the surface over. And barring a massive effort to move underground, we need the surface to live.

Supervolcanoes:
Quote from: Wikipedia
Although there are only a handful of Quaternary supervolcanoes, supervolcanic eruptions typically cover huge areas with lava and volcanic ash and cause a long-lasting change to weather (such as the triggering of a small ice age) sufficient to threaten species with extinction.
There have been four eruptions at Yellowstone at the past, the lowest having a estimated 1000km3 of ejecta, and the largest having 2500km3. Most of the Americas would be hosed. For comparison, let's look at Krakatoa, the largest eruption in human history.
Quote
Both Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Krakatoa in 1883 were VEI-6 with 10 and 25 km3 (2.4 and 6.0 cu mi) DRE, respectively. The death toll recorded by the Dutch authorities in 1883 was 36,417, although some sources put the estimate at more than 120,000 deaths.

In the year following the eruption, average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 °C (2.2 °F).[9] Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.[9] The record rainfall that hit Southern California during the “water year” from July 1883 to June 1884 – Los Angeles received 38.18 inches (969.8 mm) and San Diego 25.97 inches (659.6 mm)[10] – has been attributed to the Krakatoa eruption.
So yeah, multiply the effects of that by forty, and you get a supervolcano. Fun.

All in all, we are fucked for most natural apocalyptic scenarios.

WillowLuman

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #62 on: November 18, 2014, 07:03:12 pm »

Again, humans already survived a supervolcano about 640,000 years ago. Granted, everyone was still in Africa then (and there were multiple hominid species running around still), but we made it with practically no tech and a far, far smaller population back then.
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werty892

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #63 on: November 18, 2014, 07:10:10 pm »

Again, humans already survived a supervolcano about 640,000 years ago. Granted, everyone was still in Africa then (and there were multiple hominid species running around still), but we made it with practically no tech and a far, far smaller population back then.
Yes... But our population is much more reliant on technology, and agriculture. Let's see how many people can survive going back to hunter gatherer.

Orange Wizard

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #64 on: November 18, 2014, 07:13:34 pm »

Which is why - for the sake of the argument - I proposed a "rapture"-esque apocalypse. 99% of people randomly vanish. GG.
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pisskop

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #65 on: November 18, 2014, 07:13:55 pm »

Again, humans already survived a supervolcano about 640,000 years ago. Granted, everyone was still in Africa then (and there were multiple hominid species running around still), but we made it with practically no tech and a far, far smaller population back then.
Yes... But our population is much more reliant on technology, and agriculture. Let's see how many people can survive going back to hunter gatherer.
Dont only a few need to?  There are many, many survivalists and some of the more 'country' folk or even the poorer folk of the world would fare better than the rich, depending on how fast it came on.

All that needs to survive are . . . 6? breeding pairs to prevent inbreeding?

Sorry, you crazy progressive city folk.  :P  The conservatives win at last!
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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #66 on: November 18, 2014, 07:18:02 pm »

Again, humans already survived a supervolcano about 640,000 years ago. Granted, everyone was still in Africa then (and there were multiple hominid species running around still), but we made it with practically no tech and a far, far smaller population back then.
Yes... But our population is much more reliant on technology, and agriculture. Let's see how many people can survive going back to hunter gatherer.
Dont only a few need to?  There are many, many survivalists and some of the more 'country' folk or even the poorer folk of the world would fare better than the rich, depending on how fast it came on.

All that needs to survive are . . . 6? breeding pairs to prevent inbreeding?

Sorry, you crazy progressive city folk.  :P  The conservatives win at last!
You need over 400 people to stop inbreeding.
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Culise

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #67 on: November 18, 2014, 07:18:47 pm »

Again, humans already survived a supervolcano about 640,000 years ago. Granted, everyone was still in Africa then (and there were multiple hominid species running around still), but we made it with practically no tech and a far, far smaller population back then.
Yes... But our population is much more reliant on technology, and agriculture. Let's see how many people can survive going back to hunter gatherer.
Our population is also much, much larger.  A 99.999% die-off of the human population, right now, still leaves a larger surviving population than historically survived the global aftermath of the Toba eruption (assuming the genetic bottleneck theory at that era is sound). 
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WillowLuman

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #68 on: November 18, 2014, 07:23:37 pm »

Hell, we have uncontacted tribes that are still living the way they were 5,000 years ago.

Rapture-like apocalypse, barring further supernatural happenings, wouldn't be so so bad for the survivors. 99% of people suddenly vanishing is a huge loss, but the 70 million or so left (1 million in the US if loss is spread evenly) would suddenly be left with the resources and infrastructure of 7 billion, and statistically, enough people with know-how would probably be left to keep infrastructure running in small communities.
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pisskop

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #69 on: November 18, 2014, 07:24:46 pm »

Again, humans already survived a supervolcano about 640,000 years ago. Granted, everyone was still in Africa then (and there were multiple hominid species running around still), but we made it with practically no tech and a far, far smaller population back then.
Yes... But our population is much more reliant on technology, and agriculture. Let's see how many people can survive going back to hunter gatherer.
Dont only a few need to?  There are many, many survivalists and some of the more 'country' folk or even the poorer folk of the world would fare better than the rich, depending on how fast it came on.

All that needs to survive are . . . 6? breeding pairs to prevent inbreeding?

Sorry, you crazy progressive city folk.  :P  The conservatives win at last!
You need over 400 people to stop inbreeding.
idk.  I guess it depends on what you call inbred.  400 seems like more than enough.  Theres math on it, Im sure.
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Aseaheru

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #70 on: November 18, 2014, 07:28:36 pm »

Thought you needed a absolute minimum of 100 people (total) to minimize inbreeding...
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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #71 on: November 18, 2014, 07:29:29 pm »

Absolute minimum of 400, preferable 500.
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mainiac

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #72 on: November 18, 2014, 10:10:39 pm »

Hell, we have uncontacted tribes that are still living the way they were 5,000 years ago.

Rapture-like apocalypse, barring further supernatural happenings, wouldn't be so so bad for the survivors. 99% of people suddenly vanishing is a huge loss, but the 70 million or so left (1 million in the US if loss is spread evenly) would suddenly be left with the resources and infrastructure of 7 billion, and statistically, enough people with know-how would probably be left to keep infrastructure running in small communities.

You'd probably see the standard of living of the average survivor skyrocket.  Whereas the average person lives on $10k today when the dust settles I don't think expecting an average standard of living five times that wouldn't be unreasonable to suppose.  Just imagine as a baseline if everybody immigrated to Western Europe, the richer parts of North America and the richer parts of East Asia.  There's housing and electrical capacity and roads and other durable constructions there for a billion people now being shared among 7 percent of that.  There's enough existing stockpiles of goods like clothes, canned food, etc. to last for a decade or so without any rationing.  And there's even more then that because they'd also take advantage of the resources of the poorer parts of the world as well.  China doesn't have a lot of wealth for a billion people but 10 million could easily live in luxury.  Eventually the roads fall apart and stuff but they don't need to maintain all of them perfectly.  Stuff like global warming and shortages of clean water suddenly aren't problems.

In the very long term the lower human population means that less technological progress and the decay of the old world goods and construction lowers the world's standard of living compared to what it would be.  But you are probably talking about the children if not grandchildren of the original survivors.
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WillowLuman

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #73 on: November 18, 2014, 10:13:50 pm »

Though given the plethora of resources, I'm guessing people would reproduce rapidly, instead of holding back to enjoy their standard. Might take a century, but populations would probably balloon again.
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mainiac

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Re: Bay 12 Apocalypse Plan
« Reply #74 on: November 18, 2014, 10:33:55 pm »

Well I suppose defective condoms alone would lead to a lot of births but I imagine the population is still going to be shy of half a billion after a century.  With their high standard of living they can afford to get birth control methods back up to the pre-fall level.
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