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[Sheb]

Ok, sorry for the potential double post, but I'm fairly certain someone is going to post before I'm ready anyway.

Edit: 5 new messages! Yeah!


I was posting quickly before going to class, so I couldn't comment on that opinion piece I posted earlier. I think arming Ukraine isn't a good idea, for a number of reasons.

First of all, Ukraine can't win the war. Even with modern weapons, there is no chance of a purely military victory by the UAF. The number of Russians troops in Ukraine is a few thousands. Not counting conscripts, Russia's land forces numbers in the hundred of thousands. Of course, not all of them are deployable, but Russia could still easily increase its deployment tenfold. Increased UAF capabilities will only be met with increased Russian presence, causing more collateral damage but changing little on the ground.

Now, this was a bit of a strawman: the op-ed's author don't claim Ukraine could win the war. What they want to do is to make the war expensive enough for Russia to cause it to quit. Their model is Afghanistan. However, Ukraine is not Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan succeeded so well in bleeding the USSR because of its asymmetric nature: you could hand over a few 40,000$ Stinger missile to a mujaheddin and he'd down a 10 millions  $ Su-25.

Ukraine is not a guerrilla war, but a conventional war where two armies are fighting each others. It's not clear we can get such good return on investment. It would also cost us a bunch, and further destroy Ukraine. Russians should pays for Russia's actions, not Ukrainians.

I think arming Ukraine is also counter-productive. Russia's actions are so dangerous because they broke the taboo on using armed forces to change borders by force. Of course we shouldn't be angelic and refuse to use force in any conditions, but as long as there is a chance to go back to that taboo of violence, we should pursue it. And that means refraining from using armed forces in Ukraine, even arming forces in Ukraine, especially since it wouldn't help much.

Of course, that doesn't mean we should stand by. I agree with the general sentiment that we must make this war expensive for Russia, if not with the methods. But there are still better ways. We haven't exhausted sanctions. We can still do more to limit Russian energy export. We can further restrict Russia's access to international finance (banning them from SWIFT for exemple). We can restrict visas for Russians coming to Europe (Sorry Knit Tie). Generally speaking, I think we can figure plenty of ways to make Russia miserable without further destroying the Donbass.

P.S.

Another thing that makes me reluctant to back arming Ukraine is the Syrian precedent. I simply don't trust Obama on this one. Syria has been 4 years of supporting the rebels just enough to make the war drags on. No vision, just reluctant actions that makes things worse. I don't want Ukraine to go the same way.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Another thing that makes me reluctant to back arming Ukraine is the Syrian precedent. I simply don't trust Obama on this one. Syria has been 4 years of supporting the rebels just enough to make the war drags on. No vision, just reluctant actions that makes things worse. I don't want Ukraine to go the same way.

Yeah, it's the US not having a backbone in this situation. 

[Zangi]

Of course, that doesn't mean we should stand by. I agree with the general sentiment that we must make this war expensive for Russia, if not with the methods. But there are still better ways. We haven't exhausted sanctions. We can still do more to limit Russian energy export. We can further restrict Russia's access to international finance (banning them from SWIFT for exemple). We can restrict visas for Russians coming to Europe (Sorry Knit Tie). Generally speaking, I think we can figure plenty of ways to make Russia miserable without further destroying the Donbass.

I'm reading that the EU ain't on board with more sanctions, since they are the ones losing more out of it, rather then the US who is calling for more.

And yea, if Ukraine doesn't manage to make a decisive victory, it is going to drag on. 
Though, if Ukraine does get pushed out, are they going do the we-at-war-but-not-really-but-we-can-attack-you-again-later Korean thing?  Continue shelling the place?  Or finally decide to call it a day?

Another thing that makes me reluctant to back arming Ukraine is the Syrian precedent. I simply don't trust Obama on this one. Syria has been 4 years of supporting the rebels just enough to make the war drags on. No vision, just reluctant actions that makes things worse. I don't want Ukraine to go the same way.

Yeah, it's the US not having a backbone in this situation. 

MAD still at work?  It still is a possibility ain't it?

[Knit tie]

@Sheb: Ukraine can still win this war. So far, the Russian army has not fired a single shot, despite all the "we will help you" posturing before the rebel advance began, indicating once again that Putin will not let them engage in conventional warfare, and the rebels are taking rather heavy, if proportional, losses, so it's fully possible that if things proceed as they are, Novorossiya will eventually simply run out of men.

Also, speaking of sanctions, there is a limit to how much trouble Europe is willing to go through in order to help Ukraine, and methinks we are already starting to see this limit, what with the recent refusal to grant more money to Kyiv and all.

Also, Sheb, a minor nitpick: when you bold the most important points in your message, it makes you look like you are some sort of shady internet salesman trying to sell me a snake-oil diet plan, rather that making your posts sound more convincing.

[Sheb]

Oh, I though it helped structure my post, and serve as a tl;dr.

What is that thing with the Russian army "not firing a shot"? What about Cassad's himself acknowledging the "North Wind blowing"? What about Mariupol?

[miljan]

This was one day before maidan on 20 Nov 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9hOl8TuBUM&x-yt-ts=1422327029&feature=player_embedded&x-yt-cl=84838260

After that, and this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW1WDbDX7wE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTos0duooaU

I am more and more starting to think that west did actually have a direct impact and involvement on things in ukraine in negative way.

[smjjames]

Also, Sheb, you can call me German by this point, everybody knows my name already anyway.

I don't. And your first name is Gernan?

German Olegovich Rudakov. And German is just a name, I am not German in nationality or ethnicity at all.

EDIT: It is indeed a Russian version of "Hermann."

I actually did mean German as in the name, not the nationality.

[Knit tie]

Oh, I though it helped structure my post, and serve as a tl;dr.

What is that thing with the Russian army "not firing a shot"? What about Cassad's himself acknowledging the "North Wind blowing"? What about Mariupol?

"North wind" has just made a crapload of promises to the rebels to help them out in the most difficult battles before everything started, they haven't acted on any of those promises so far. Russian forces are just standing there, waiting for an order from Kremlin, which is nowhere to be seen. The soldiers who are fighting the Ukrainian army right now are 100% rebels.

And what about Mariupol?

@Miljan: Didn't you hear the recent Obama's speech, where he pretty much admitted to meddling in the Ukrainian politics?

[Sheb]

Yeah, right, giving social media training to Ukrainian activists is "preparing a civil war in Ukraine".

Knit Tie, I'm frankly feeling I'm fighting windmills when I discuss with you. Are you now denying that Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine and have fought in Ukraine in the past? Do you want me to dig up the posts where you state the exact opposite?

[miljan]

Oh, I though it helped structure my post, and serve as a tl;dr.

What is that thing with the Russian army "not firing a shot"? What about Cassad's himself acknowledging the "North Wind blowing"? What about Mariupol?

"North wind" has just made a crapload of promises to the rebels to help them out in the most difficult battles before everything started, they haven't acted on any of those promises so far. Russian forces are just standing there, waiting for an order from Kremlin, which is nowhere to be seen. The soldiers who are fighting the Ukrainian army right now are 100% rebels.

And what about Mariupol?

@Miljan: Didn't you hear the recent Obama's speech, where he pretty much admitted to meddling in the Ukrainian politics?

When, back than? Or now? I did not hear it, please link.

[MonkeyHead]

Novorossiya will eventually simply run out of men.

This is a probable outcome. They simply can not keep bleeding men and materiel for relatively small territorial gains for too long, regardless of how many AFU troops are taken out of action as there is no way the NR force can be any way approaching the size that the AFU could put together (which a quick and dirty calculation suggests could be 5 to 6 times the size). Unless of course there is a growth in the Russian influence in terms of supplying men (doubtful) and supplies/weapons (possible) than we currently see. This seems to match what I can piece together about the AFU approach so far - no real "large scale high intensity" assaults... though if this is choice or necessity, I do not know. NR on the other hand seems to want to carve out a position as fast as possible, to give them some weight around a negotiating table.

Question: the AFU should have serious air superiority over the NR forces. Is this evident or not? Why/why not? If it is due to the NR forces having some kind of air defence umbrella, where did that magically appear from?

[Knit tie]

Yeah, right, giving social media training to Ukrainian activists is "preparing a civil war in Ukraine".

Knit Tie, I'm frankly feeling I'm fighting windmills when I discuss with you. Are you now denying that Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine and have fought in Ukraine in the past? Do you want me to dig up the posts where you state the exact opposite?

Sheb, when I said that the "north wind" was likely to blow, I was basing that claim on what the rebels have themselves posted in the social media before the actual fighting began. So far, there's been no Russian involvement whatsoever, all those promises to help have turned out to be empty - so yeah, Russian soldiers right now are definitely not fighting in Ukraine, despite telling the obviouly elated rebels that they are going to do so.

To summarise: Before the rebel advance has started, the Russian forces promised the rebels that they will help, the rebels were all over the social media making obtuse insinuations about how the "north wind" is going to blow soon, I made several posts claiming that, but in the end that promise to help turned out to be a false alarm, as the Russian forces have not done anything whatsoever so far, aside from standing on the Russian-DNR border and waiting for an order from Putin.

@MonkeyHead: The AFN do indeed have a very good Russian-supplied air defence umbrella.

[miljan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSOfQ7tgTLg 

[Helgoland]

Yeah, right, giving social media training to Ukrainian activists is "preparing a civil war in Ukraine".

Knit Tie, I'm frankly feeling I'm fighting windmills when I discuss with you. Are you now denying that Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine and have fought in Ukraine in the past? Do you want me to dig up the posts where you state the exact opposite?

Sheb, when I said that the "north wind" was likely to blow, I was basing that claim on what the rebels have themselves posted in the social media before the actual fighting began. So far, there's been no Russian involvement whatsoever, all those promises to help have turned out to be empty - so yeah, Russian soldiers right now are definitely not fighting in Ukraine, despite telling the obviouly elated rebels that they are going to do so.

To summarise: Before the rebel advance has started, the Russian forces promised the rebels that they will help, the rebels were all over the social media making obtuse insinuations about how the "north wind" is going to blow soon, I made several posts claiming that, but in the end that promise to help turned out to be a false alarm, as the Russian forces have not done anything whatsoever so far, aside from standing on the Russian-DNR border and waiting for an order from Putin.

@MonkeyHead: The AFN do indeed have a very good Russian-supplied air defence umbrella.

Knit, you yourself admitted that Russian soldiers were present in what you call the Mariupol 'special operation' or somesuch. You are blatantly contradicting your previous posts.

[Knit tie]

Yeah, right, giving social media training to Ukrainian activists is "preparing a civil war in Ukraine".

Knit Tie, I'm frankly feeling I'm fighting windmills when I discuss with you. Are you now denying that Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine and have fought in Ukraine in the past? Do you want me to dig up the posts where you state the exact opposite?

Sheb, when I said that the "north wind" was likely to blow, I was basing that claim on what the rebels have themselves posted in the social media before the actual fighting began. So far, there's been no Russian involvement whatsoever, all those promises to help have turned out to be empty - so yeah, Russian soldiers right now are definitely not fighting in Ukraine, despite telling the obviouly elated rebels that they are going to do so.

To summarise: Before the rebel advance has started, the Russian forces promised the rebels that they will help, the rebels were all over the social media making obtuse insinuations about how the "north wind" is going to blow soon, I made several posts claiming that, but in the end that promise to help turned out to be a false alarm, as the Russian forces have not done anything whatsoever so far, aside from standing on the Russian-DNR border and waiting for an order from Putin.

@MonkeyHead: The AFN do indeed have a very good Russian-supplied air defence umbrella.

Knit, you yourself admitted that Russian soldiers were present in what you call the Mariupol 'special operation' or somesuch. You are blatantly contradicting your previous posts.

Yes, last summer the Russian troops participated in a covert operation near Mariupol in order to help the Novorossiya when it was in a critical state. Nothing involving Russian troops happened near Mariupol this winter, despite said Russian troops promising otherwise to the rebels before the current rebel advance started about two weeks ago.

If you look at my previous posts, you will be able to see the one where I say that the Russian army is "very deliberately not helping the rebels," that's when I've first read about this lack of Russian help from the distraught Colonel Cassad and a bunch of angry rebels.

EDIT: Oh, I see what you don't understand. What I was talking about in all those posts was just the current rebel advance, one that started two and a half weeks ago and where the Russian forces didn't do anything despite their gung-ho claims to the contrary in the beginning, not the Novorossiyan conflict in its entirety, where the Russian forces did once help the Novorossiyan ones militarily, in a covert operation to take some pressure off the badly strained rebel defence lines near Mariupol.

And I would really appreciate it if next time we misunderstand each other you could give me some benefit of the doubt and assume that we really just misunderstand each other, rather that accusing me of hypocrisy straight away. It's not very good for a civil discussion, you see.

EDITEDIT: Russia and all the other former USSR republics are preparing to present Germany with an official claim of how much damage it inflicted on them during the WW2. Of course, any reparations are extremely unlikely at this point, but it's still a valid way for Russia to be a political dick to Germany.