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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 262412 times)

Helgoland

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2100 on: January 15, 2015, 05:02:59 pm »

And since it's now apparently okay to tell people that they are fanatics, I would say that everything that you've said about me also applies to you in equal measure, especially after that epic rant about how Merkel is awesome.
Liebelein, calm down and read again:
It's the same on the Western side, of course, but we appear to be more sneaky about it - or simply have an echo chamber so large it seems like open air.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2101 on: January 15, 2015, 05:06:07 pm »

And since it's now apparently okay to tell people that they are fanatics, I would say that everything that you've said about me also applies to you in equal measure, especially after that epic rant about how Merkel is awesome.
Liebelein, calm down and read again:
It's the same on the Western side, of course, but we appear to be more sneaky about it - or simply have an echo chamber so large it seems like open air.
We are all mad here, aren't we?

I think I might actually be addicted to arguing now.

Anyway, what do you think of Navalny's supporters being so few in number?
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 05:07:40 pm by Knit tie »
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Helgoland

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2102 on: January 15, 2015, 05:09:40 pm »

He's a fascist - it's a good thing. And it's widely known that Putin has great popular support*, so a large demonstration would've been a surprise to say the least.

*My father, a physicist, works with many Russian physicists who come to Germany on occasion. Every once in a while he tells us how shocked he is to see the transformation some of his colleagues have gone through: People who he previously considered very, very sensible started spouting bullshit nationalist rhetorics. Scientists, and physicists in particular, generally are among the most cosmopolitan people on earth, which makes his observations all the more worrying.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2103 on: January 15, 2015, 05:13:38 pm »

He's a fascist - it's a good thing. And it's widely known that Putin has great popular support*, so a large demonstration would've been a surprise to say the least.

*My father, a physicist, works with many Russian physicists who come to Germany on occasion. Every once in a while he tells us how shocked he is to see the transformation some of his colleagues have gone through: People who he previously considered very, very sensible started spouting bullshit nationalist rhetorics. Scientists, and physicists in particular, generally are among the most cosmopolitan people on earth, which makes his observations all the more worrying.
Or maybe they've just revealed that they have always supported Putin, causing your father to see it as bullshit nationalism, because the human brain is programmed to percieve those disagreeing with us as inherently irrational and misguided.

Same thing happened with me, by the way: when I was anti-Putin, you thought I were "cool," now that I support him you consider me to apparently have lost my way.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 05:15:25 pm by Knit tie »
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Helgoland

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2104 on: January 15, 2015, 05:20:31 pm »

Same thing happened with me, by the way: when I was anti-Putin, you thought I were "cool," now that I support him you consider me to apparently have lost my way.
Once again, you make unwarranted assumptions: It certainly was a shock after you hadn't been here, but now I see it as the result of a logical development which - to some extent, and with certain alterations - has taken place with me too*. As far as I can tell, it is simply the effect of seeing - whether rightly or not - the country one loves threatened.

*An example: A year ago I would've thought it impossible that I would advocate for a reintroduction of conscription in Germany, a strong conventional defense of the eastern EU members against Russia, and an open admission of the West being in a power struggle with Russia. A year ago I'd have laughed at the person I am now, or worse.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Baffler

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2105 on: January 15, 2015, 05:26:48 pm »

Heh, and I used to dislike Russia, and Putin in particular, pretty stongly. Now though I see them both in a very different light. I don't think we're as diametrically opposed to one another as our respective Cold War era antiques would lead us to believe.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2106 on: January 15, 2015, 05:32:03 pm »

Looks like we understand each other, then - I'm sorry for interpreting your posts at the beginning of the Third Ukraine Thread wrong, as it turns out. Although I would like to ask: do you seriously believe that Russia will attempt to do anything with Poland and the Baltics, or do you see it as just a precaution for a possibility?

And you will probably agree with me that conflicts, in general, radicalise people and sow wholly unnecessary discord into previously united communities.

Ah, where are the pointless meatgrinder battles of old when you need them? We all would've been dead and friendly again in the afterlife by now if this crisis happened but a hundred years ago.

@Baffler: I am very, very interested in what made you change your opinion. Could you tell us, please?
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 05:40:30 pm by Knit tie »
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Sheb

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2107 on: January 15, 2015, 05:40:19 pm »

Well, I don't think Putin would risk something in the Baltics (Poland is safe), because we're keeping our guard up, and it would cost Putin too much. However, I equally think that if we were to let our guard down, a Russian intervention in the Baltic would be possible.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2108 on: January 15, 2015, 05:43:26 pm »

Well, I don't think Putin would risk something in the Baltics (Poland is safe), because we're keeping our guard up, and it would cost Putin too much. However, I equally think that if we were to let our guard down, a Russian intervention in the Baltic would be possible.
I agree. It would theoretically be possible, if unlikely, considering that physical expansion is the last thing in Putin's and most Russians' minds right now. (Crimea doesn't count - it saw itself as Russian and wanted to join Russia, as opposed to Poland and co.)
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Dutchling

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2109 on: January 15, 2015, 05:45:36 pm »

(Crimea doesn't count - it saw itself as Russian and wanted to join Russia, as opposed to Poland and co.)
I don't think there exists a place on Earth that doesn't see itself as Russia if it ever gets occupied by Russian troops.
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Sheb

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2110 on: January 15, 2015, 05:46:15 pm »

Well, I don't think Russia would do something as crude as annexing the Baltics, I'm thinking more in the line of sending a few soldiers to make sure the policy in Talinn, Riga and Vilnius is pro-Russian.
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mainiac

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2111 on: January 15, 2015, 05:48:13 pm »

So everything that you disagree with is a conspiracy theory nowadays?

No actually, nothing I said indicated that in the least way.  But you post a lot of conspiracy theories.
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Devastator

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2112 on: January 15, 2015, 05:49:06 pm »

Knit tie, the reasons I don't believe your statements and arguments are pretty simple.

Firstly, there are loads of things that just don't make sense.  If all the donbass fighters are Ukranian rebels, and there was overwhelming support to join Russia, why have there been so many people fleeing into the Ukraine?  There's been lots of people fleeing the area to both countries, but if >80% of the locals supported becoming part of Russia, why would those same people leave to join the rest of the Ukraine?

Secondly,  regardless of your political views of an uprising, I don't see how putting boots on the ground by the thounsand, can be constituted anything other than an invasion.  You could then argue if it's justified or not, but either way it remains an invasion.  The United States definately invaded Iraq to remove Saddam, for instance, although there was quite a bit of political fluff trying to avoid that word.  If they had done anything similar in Syria, for instance, I would definately expect to hear that as being an invasion.

What this has relevance to your arguments, is that I keep hearing repeated statements about how this is a Russian or how this is a Ukranian, interposed with other posts where you state that it is impossible to tell a Russian from a Ukrainian.  You even had a picture of a guy in a Russian uniform, and you could somehow magically tell that he was not Russian at all.  That's simply illogical.

Thirdly, some of these claims have been quite silly.  It was a coup that removed Yanukovych from power.  Tell me another one.  It was also the second time he was removed from power.  This time he was replaced by a weak government that was itself replaced several months later in new elections.  That's not how coups work.  When someone get's couped, there is a new man in power very quickly, and it is absolutely clear who is in charge.

He's also been very, very quiet about this whole thing.  There was a flurry of the usual opposition-blaming and label throwing which happens to every ousted president, but he seems to be the single most ineffectual coup victim in the history of politics, standing by as his country gets invaded by a third party, which is what I'm going to have to take it as until he's been seen in the disputed area leading what Russia would claim to be his people.

In the end, there's just too many stories.  "It was vacationing soldiers, you can't possibly expect a nation to control it's servicemen!"  "We're supporing the rebels against atrocities that were committed by people who look indisinguishable from our soldiers!"  "We fail to recognize the existance of this country at all, therefore we cannot be invading a country that doesn't exist!"  "They deserve it for oppressing our (again, indistinguishable) civilians who live in that country!"  I'm exaggerating for effect, but not by all that much.

If you are telling the truth, you don't need to tell a dozen lies until you successfully cobble together a story that is currently difficult to disprove.  If you truly believe what you say, there isno fear in the testing.

If you want me.. and possibly others, to think that you are a Russian patriot, rather than a propaganda-touting shill, the best way to begin is by stating what kind of evidence would convince you that the opposing side is correct.  This is something that can be applied to people from both sides.. someone disagreeing with you will be able to explain his beliefs, and list things that he would consider convincing evidence.

I am willing to do this as well, and even am willing to go first.

I'd expect most of the remaining people in the Donbass region are putinists/russian supporters, simply due to the hazards of living in opposition territory for months, along with the population being fairly mobile.  I will believe that the invasion has ended when Russia posts casulty lists, and has pensioned off family members.  I will not believe that such things cannot be made, as there have been enough prisoners, and enough family members of MIA casulties, to make it impossible for me to believe there aren't any.  In order to believe Russia has not invaded at all, there is a lot more that needs to be done.  First, I'd need to see the prosecution of at least some of these deserters who are engaging in foreign wars.  Secondly, I'd expect to see reparations paid by Russia in return for forgiving the actions of her citizens in a foreign country.  Thirdly, I'd expect to see reasurrances and guarantees issued to other nations containing Russian populations, as well as protective measures put forth to prevent a repeat of these actions.

If Putin wants me to believe that he isn't, in fact, invading the Ukraine, he needs to go beyond 'deny, deny, deny', while offhandedly threatening other countries that the Soviets failed to finish exterminating the national identities of.

Also, if you care, I'm in the camp of 'Knit tie is simply a russian patriot', as I have met several others expounding similar views in person.

I'd also love you to find me a Kamchakan Ainu if it is true that Russia is now supporting non-russian minorities...
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2113 on: January 15, 2015, 05:51:22 pm »

(Crimea doesn't count - it saw itself as Russian and wanted to join Russia, as opposed to Poland and co.)
I don'think there exists a place on Earth that doesn't see itself as Russia if it ever gets occupied by Russian troops.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Crimeans' desire to join Russia has absolutely nothing to do with Russian troops. In fact, I seriously doubt that what Russia did in Crimea would be possible without the overwhelming support of the local populace in the first place.

Well, I don't think Russia would do something as crude as annexing the Baltics, I'm thinking more in the line of sending a few soldiers to make sure the policy in Talinn, Riga and Vilnius is pro-Russian.

Devastator, wait a bit, please. I have to process your post first.
That's assuming that Russia even cares about the Baltics, which it doesn't.

So everything that you disagree with is a conspiracy theory nowadays?

No actually, nothing I said indicated that in the least way.  But you post a lot of conspiracy theories.
Why don't you debunk some of those theories, then?


« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 06:33:15 pm by Knit tie »
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Erkki

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2114 on: January 15, 2015, 06:05:55 pm »

Quote
That's assuming that Russia even cares about the Baltics, which it doesn't.

Yeah, similar to how it doesn't care about its other small neighbors such as Georgia?
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