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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 265390 times)

smjjames

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1950 on: January 12, 2015, 05:27:10 pm »

Doesn't Russia insist the Kiev government is illegitimate? I mean, the Russians here seem to.

Handing out Yanu would mean they recognize the revolution, or at least make it look like they do, no?


Yeah, the Kremlin called the Kiev government illegitimate almost as soon as yanukovich fled the country.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1951 on: January 12, 2015, 05:30:30 pm »

Still, keeping Yanuk will give Putin close to zero leverage, so the overall political effect of this will be almost negligible.
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DJ

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1952 on: January 12, 2015, 05:33:54 pm »

Putin could probably sell him for removal of some of the sanctions. EU wants that too, and getting Yanukovich could be a way to do that without losing face.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1953 on: January 12, 2015, 05:41:42 pm »

Putin could probably sell him for removal of some of the sanctions. EU wants that too, and getting Yanukovich could be a way to do that without losing face.
Could be, although from what I heard Merkel wants to keep being a Washington sockpuppet and running a policy of "full sanctions at any cost to bow those filthy Slavic infidels!"
« Last Edit: January 12, 2015, 05:54:59 pm by Knit tie »
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Erkki

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1954 on: January 12, 2015, 05:43:50 pm »

Putin could probably sell him for removal of some of the sanctions. EU wants that too, and getting Yanukovich could be a way to do that without losing face.
Could me, although from what I heard Merkel wants to keep being a Washington sockpuppet and running a policy of "full sanctions at any cost to bow those filthy Slavic infidels!"

You're back to being just provocative.
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Helgoland

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1955 on: January 12, 2015, 05:44:07 pm »

Putin could probably sell him for removal of some of the sanctions. EU wants that too, and getting Yanukovich could be a way to do that without losing face.
Could me, although from what I heard Merkel wants to keep being a Washington sockpuppet and running a policy of "full sanctions at any cost to bow those filthy Slavic infidels!"
Learn German then and start reading our newspapers. It sounds quite different here.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Dutchling

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1956 on: January 12, 2015, 05:48:02 pm »

So why would the EU want to stop the sanctions?
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1957 on: January 12, 2015, 05:54:19 pm »

Putin could probably sell him for removal of some of the sanctions. EU wants that too, and getting Yanukovich could be a way to do that without losing face.
Could me, although from what I heard Merkel wants to keep being a Washington sockpuppet and running a policy of "full sanctions at any cost to bow those filthy Slavic infidels!"
Learn German then and start reading our newspapers. It sounds quite different here.
I am intrigued, Helgo, what does it sound like in Germany? It's got to be more accurate than what I read in English and Russian, where my comment that Erkki called provocative is the currently leading theory.

So why would the EU want to stop the sanctions?
They apparently hurt the EU as well.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2015, 05:56:09 pm by Knit tie »
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Culise

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1958 on: January 12, 2015, 05:56:40 pm »

Indeed.  There are plenty of reasons for Merkel to have taken a hard line against Russia; dismissing it as "sockpuppetry" is a petty sophistry seemingly designed to conceal that there are solid, pragmatic reasons for Germany to take such a position, just as there have been for the Baltic states and Poland to be some of the loudest voices in favor of a firm position against Russia.  In fact, it's downright disingenuous, considering that it completely ignores that up until March of last year, Merkel was the strongest voice in favor of Russian rapprochement and the voice of caution in imposing any sanctions.  The second Putin revealed that he had been systematically lying to her for months about the Crimea situation (specifically, that he would respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and that he would not intervene militarily), she decided that he could not be trusted and shifted her political position accordingly.  And this is my grasp from reading English sources; I don't know what they're saying in Russia, but sockpuppetry or kowtowing to the Washington line is not what I've seen in anything but the most anti-American (because it only makes sense as an insult if taken from a position that denounces political positions due to being perceived as American) or pro-Russian (because it absolves Russia of any blame in the matter) positions - and those two positions don't necessarily overlap. 

As for why the EU would theoretically want to stop the sanctions, perhaps fear of economic losses due to the general Russian counter-sanctions on agricultural goods.  France is taking a significant loss on the Mistrals, so it has an economic reason to resume military shipments to Russia.  There's also always the fear that Russia can turn off the gas taps, as well, though that hasn't happened yet and is unlikely to happen unless there's a very serious escalation all around. 
« Last Edit: January 12, 2015, 05:58:31 pm by Culise »
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1959 on: January 12, 2015, 06:07:54 pm »

Thanks, Culise. So it's mostly distrust and wariness, then. Assuming, of course, that Putin indeed promised all that to Merkel, I wouldn't trust the official German newspapers to objectively report Putin any more than I would trust official Russian newspapers to objectively report Kyiv *coughcrucifiedbabycough*.

But I wonder, what pragmatic reasons might there be for Poland and Baltics to be equally vocal against Russia? Fear of Russian imperialism and attack is what I've read about so far, but I don't think that this is entirely objective, given that Russia right now has absolutely no imperial ambitions whatsoever, rather it is trying to fight the USA's influence extending into Ukraine. So such fears are understandable, yes, but not perfectly rational.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2015, 06:20:07 pm by Knit tie »
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Helgoland

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1960 on: January 12, 2015, 06:16:20 pm »

Putin could probably sell him for removal of some of the sanctions. EU wants that too, and getting Yanukovich could be a way to do that without losing face.
Could me, although from what I heard Merkel wants to keep being a Washington sockpuppet and running a policy of "full sanctions at any cost to bow those filthy Slavic infidels!"
Learn German then and start reading our newspapers. It sounds quite different here.
I am intrigued, Helgo, what does it sound like in Germany? It's got to be more accurate than what I read in English and Russian, where my comment that Erkki called provocative is the currently leading theory.
Merkel doesn't sound at all. Merkel doesn't talk. She acts. And once she's formed an opinion and decided on a course of action, ten full batallions aren't enough to stop her.
Merkel is pissed at Putin, as Culise so accurately remarked. She's pissed because he's lied to her and doesn't stick to the rules. And so she won't make the mistake of trusting him again without being able to put pressure on him.
Interestingly this is one of the only two things she's taken a stance contrary to popular opinion on in all her ten years of rule: The first was the Euro crisis and the measures for saving Greece; the second is making sure Russia will play by the rules in the future.

There are voices opposing her position, of course; but they won't stop her. Merkel is as popular as no chancellor before her; she is untouchable, and her political capital is immense.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Erkki

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1961 on: January 12, 2015, 06:21:32 pm »

What is "Russia fighting USA's influence in Ukraine" but imperialism?

To your idealistic, rational West, Russia has during the last 9 months or so become an irrational, unpredictable powermonger drunken and on the loose. It can no longer be counted that Russia would stop behaving badly when it hurts itself - it likely wont. It is not seen as not just a competitor in some ways(mainly economically because militarily, Russia isn't a serious threat) but a threat on multiple levels from continental instability that hurts the economy to repolarizing Europe since 1990s even if Russia does not directly harm its neighbors with an armed assault of any kind, including supporting "separatists".

Should Russia take further steps in its voyage against windmills, the first countries in the line are Baltics and Poland. Nobody, absolutely nobody wants Russia to try NATO's article 5 beyond perhaps cyber warfare.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1962 on: January 12, 2015, 06:36:37 pm »

@Helgo: And these people blame me for supporting Putin. We are not so different, you and I...[/jokebutnoseriously]

@Erkki: thank you for recounting the official Washington position. I just wish to say that everything that Russia did was in response to the USA-sponsored and supported coup in the Ukraine, which was every bit as illegal as the Crimea annexation/reunification, to say nothing of Poroshenko's government, but everybody seems to disregard that, but that's not my point, my point is that Russia's actions were actually very predictable and very rational. It didn't just decide to oppose Kyiv, it decided to oppose Kyiv after it started turning pro-western and anti-Russian under the new rulers, and instead of simply declaring war it decided to support the Novorossiyan rebels, thus allowing it to still pursue its goals while avoiding open involvement. Imperialism? Perhaps. But not madness.

Also, how is the second strongest military power in the world is supposed to be not a serious military threat?
« Last Edit: January 12, 2015, 06:43:18 pm by Knit tie »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1963 on: January 12, 2015, 06:49:09 pm »

Yeah, most Russians fail to understand that they went from

"Country with rather shitty government and human rights record but stable business partner" to "Unpredictable aggressive neighbour who doesn't keep his word" in many European minds.  And it is not because of "Anti-Russian propaganda" but decisions of Putin and Russian nation that blindly follows him.

Oh, and for many Ukrainians you went from "unfriendly neighbour" to "mortal enemy that must be destroyed at any cost" status and for more millions you went from "brothers" to "damned backstabers"
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Erkki

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #1964 on: January 12, 2015, 06:55:50 pm »

How many dead and homeless did that "USA-sponsored and supported coup" result in?

I think Russia must have been a bit surprised to see EU and its allies actually reacting for once. Lastly, yeah, Russia may be have world's 2nd most powerful (conventional) military, but the alliance(of which NATO is only a part) that it has been making a new adversary for herself is considerably more powerful still. And controls the world's seas and global trade.

edit: I think you are again dismissing things(not necessarily the ones I've mentioned) simply because they don't favor Russia or are presented as facts by her "opponents".
« Last Edit: January 12, 2015, 07:01:05 pm by Erkki »
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