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[Sergarr]

_{It was OVER 900 000!}

i'll show myself out

It's already over 9000 - 1 USD is currently around 11000 BYR. 1 EUR is approximately around 13400 BYR.
1 CAD is around 9400 BYR.

That's ridiculous. Do you use hundreds of BYR just to buy matches?

Shouldn't the government have tried to use de-nomination to deal with that?

[Loud Whispers]

In 2011 our opposition tried to exploit the hyperinflation in order to launch an Arab Spring-style coup (the so-called "clapping revolution"), the state security forces stopped them.

No offense, but... It's odd hearing you say "state security forces", because it just sounds so ominous.
I mean, I can't think of a context where it sounds nice.
"State security forces fulfill wish of dying child"? "A school received a surprise in the shape of a state security force"? "A little girl was given a lovely flower by state security forces"?

Yeah, because dressing things up in sweet euphemisms definitely changes everything

[Guardian G.I.]

In 2011 our opposition tried to exploit the hyperinflation in order to launch an Arab Spring-style coup (the so-called "clapping revolution"), the state security forces stopped them.

No offense, but... It's odd hearing you say "state security forces", because it just sounds so ominous.
I mean, I can't think of a context where it sounds nice.
"State security forces fulfill wish of dying child"? "A school received a nice surprise in the shape of a state security force"? "A little girl was given a lovely flower by state security forces"?

I'm using the direct translation of the Russian term "органы госбезопасности", because it sounds more neutral than the term used in the West to describe the state security forces of the countries it doesn't like, "secret police".

_{It was OVER 900 000!}

i'll show myself out

It's already over 9000 - 1 USD is currently around 11000 BYR. 1 EUR is approximately around 13400 BYR.
1 CAD is around 9400 BYR.

That's ridiculous. Do you use hundreds of BYR just to buy matches?

Shouldn't the government have tried to use de-nomination to deal with that?

The last denomination happened on New Year's Eve 2000. Since then, our government seemed to be happy with the exchange rate of 1 USD= 2 500-3 000 BYR. There were rumours about a denomination in late 2011, but it didn't happen.

[Sinistar]

-snip-

WOW, this sounds... quite bad! 
Dunno what else to say.

On the whole "state security forces" thing - I would guess this might be another west vs. east mentality difference. I don't personally see something called "state security forces" as necessarily "evil", but I do think people in western countries are more used to their security forces having some sort of recognizable name, FBI, DEA, SWAT and such (yes, I know I'm mixing bunch of different groups but please bear with me for the sake of example). And probably something they don't immediately link to being "state" controlled.

Just my guess.

[Knit tie]

The shock waves of the Russian crisis have reached Belarus and put the country on the verge of another upsurge of inflation. People are stocking up on dollars and euros. The Belarusian government is trying to restrict the panic by enacting a 30% fee on purchase of foreign currencies. There are huge lines in electronic shops, several banks have put restrictions on withdrawing money and some even ceased offering credits.

We're apparently heading into a repeat of the crisis of 1998-99, when the Russian default and economic crisis pulled the Belarusian economy down and triggered hyperinflation. In August 1998 1 USD equalled around 50 000 BYR, at the end of 1999 1 USD equalled 900 000 BYR.

Estimate chances of Lukashenko going down if hyper-inflation occurs?

He didn't go down in 1999. In 2011 our opposition tried to exploit the hyperinflation in order to launch an Arab Spring-style coup (the so-called "clapping revolution"), the state security forces stopped them. We have elections in late 2015, and our opposition is definitely going to make some trouble. In the worst-case scenario, they may even get inspired by Euromaidan and devastate the centre of Minsk.
We'll see how the next year goes, though I hope that our opposition will fail because I'm a totalitarian-minded Homo Soveticus Untermensch.

Also, Lukashenko is probably much better of a ruler than whoever his potential replacement is.

[Guardian G.I.]

The shock waves of the Russian crisis have reached Belarus and put the country on the verge of another upsurge of inflation. People are stocking up on dollars and euros. The Belarusian government is trying to restrict the panic by enacting a 30% fee on purchase of foreign currencies. There are huge lines in electronic shops, several banks have put restrictions on withdrawing money and some even ceased offering credits.

We're apparently heading into a repeat of the crisis of 1998-99, when the Russian default and economic crisis pulled the Belarusian economy down and triggered hyperinflation. In August 1998 1 USD equalled around 50 000 BYR, at the end of 1999 1 USD equalled 900 000 BYR.

Estimate chances of Lukashenko going down if hyper-inflation occurs?

He didn't go down in 1999. In 2011 our opposition tried to exploit the hyperinflation in order to launch an Arab Spring-style coup (the so-called "clapping revolution"), the state security forces stopped them. We have elections in late 2015, and our opposition is definitely going to make some trouble. In the worst-case scenario, they may even get inspired by Euromaidan and devastate the centre of Minsk.
We'll see how the next year goes, though I hope that our opposition will fail because I'm a totalitarian-minded Homo Soveticus Untermensch.

Also, Lukashenko is probably much better of a ruler than whoever his potential replacement is.

I agree with you here - none of opposition forces have a meaningful programme besides "liberalize everything, join the EU, we'll figure out the rest later". It's a recipe for disaster - the opposition is pretty divided on its own, and if the "democratic forces" win, they will probably bicker with each other and get rich by various nefarious ways while the rest of the country becomes more and more poor and miserable. It already happened once - that's how the Belarusian government operated before Lukashenko became President.

Here's an example of how shitty things were in the early 1990s: the owner of the factory my dad worked on got rich by asset stripping, turned the factory's summer camp for children into a brothel and sent his kids to study in a prestigious place in the UK while his workers drank themselves to death due to total hopelessness, and no one could stop him because he had connections in the democratic elected government of Belarus - he was a distant relative of then-Prime Minister Kebich. He was put behind bars when Lukashenko got into power, but the factory died out anyway.

[Sergarr]

Does Lukashenko have a plan on who will rule Belarus after his death?

[Guardian G.I.]

Does Lukashenko have a plan on who will rule Belarus after his death?

There are a lot of jokes about how his younger son Nikolai is going to be the next President of Belarus. I'm not sure if he'll manage to lead the country.
I'm rather pessimistic about our future - I'm afraid Belarus will either end up being either an irradiated and blasted battleground between Russia and NATO or another EU colony proud and free deindustrialized market for Western European goods and provider of cheap labour and prostitutes, like most other less well-off EU member states.

[Sergarr]

Does Lukashenko have a plan on who will rule Belarus after his death?

There are a lot of jokes about how his younger son Nikolai is going to be the next President of Belarus. I'm not sure if he'll manage to lead the country.
I'm rather pessimistic about our future - I'm afraid Belarus will either end up being either an irradiated and blasted battleground between Russia and NATO or another EU colony proud and free deindustrialized market for Western European goods and provider of cheap labour and prostitutes, like most other less well-off EU member states.

There's always a third choice - being turned into Ukraine's lesser brother. I'm pretty sure that counts as worse than the lesser EU member states.

[Guardian G.I.]

Does Lukashenko have a plan on who will rule Belarus after his death?

There are a lot of jokes about how his younger son Nikolai is going to be the next President of Belarus. I'm not sure if he'll manage to lead the country.
I'm rather pessimistic about our future - I'm afraid Belarus will either end up being either an irradiated and blasted battleground between Russia and NATO or another EU colony proud and free deindustrialized market for Western European goods and provider of cheap labour and prostitutes, like most other less well-off EU member states.

There's always a third choice - being turned into Ukraine's lesser brother. I'm pretty sure that counts as worse than the lesser EU member states.

I think that's a step leading to the second possible outcome.
If Lukashenko didn't happen, we would be a second Ukraine - a crumbling, poor and corrupt state ruled by oligarchic clans. Some of our liberals claim that without Lukashenko, Belarus had a chance of joining the EU alongside Slovenia, Poland and the Baltic states, but judging by how things were shaping out in 1992-1994 it definitely wouldn't happen. Neither of these countries are particularly prosperous places anyway.

[Sergarr]

Incidentally, 1 USD is 59 RUB right now.

Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.

I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?

Dollar value, but yes. That's my theory anyway. (incidentally now is a good time to buy dollars for rubles- I will bet you 10 Internets right now, you'll sell them for no less than 65 rubles before the weekend.)

I'm gonna try and remember that bet. See if it carries out true.

Good thing I don't buy dollars!

[Toady One]

I removed a derail and sent out a warning.  I don't need any further personal attacks, baiting, flaming or other nonsense in this thread.

[Knit tie]

So, did something happen while I was gone?

[smjjames]

Other than Toady One removing the WWII derail and Mictl thinking you were baiting him rather than wondering where he was? I don't think there was anything significant.

[Knit tie]

Other than Toady One removing the WWII derail and Mictl thinking you were baiting him rather than wondering where he was? I don't think there was anything significant.

I honestly wasn't baiting him, I just wondered where he was to ask him what he thinks of the recent ruble appreciation.

Wait, the WW2 derail is still there. I think. Let me check.

Yup, it's still there. So what got removed?

EDIT: The Russian Central Bank appears to be doing quite well in containing the damage - ruble is going up in price and the panic among the more alarmist of Russian economists seems to have been quelled.