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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 257620 times)

Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #945 on: December 17, 2014, 12:35:23 pm »

I've heard rumors that the recent jump in ruble was because of 600 billion ruble credit the Central Bank has given to Rosneft to pay up their outer debt.

How a central bank credit given to rosneft makes the ruble spike?
Rosneft gets the money, uses all of it to buy USD on the market, thus drastically increasing the supply of rubles in the currency market.
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Vilanat

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #946 on: December 17, 2014, 12:36:02 pm »

Which causes the currency to decline, not rise.
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a1s

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #947 on: December 17, 2014, 12:36:16 pm »

I've heard rumors that the recent jump in ruble was because of 600 billion ruble credit the Central Bank has given to Rosneft to pay up their outer debt.

How a central bank credit given to rosneft makes the ruble spike?
Interesting question, really. Perhaps the credit was in foreign currency?
Credit? Probably not. But the debts were (and so Rosneft has to buy convertible currency to pay them)
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I tried to play chess but two of my opponents were playing competitive checkers as a third person walked in with Game of Thrones in hand confused cause they thought this was the book club.

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #948 on: December 17, 2014, 12:36:43 pm »

I've heard rumors that the recent jump in ruble was because of 600 billion ruble credit the Central Bank has given to Rosneft to pay up their outer debt.

How a central bank credit given to rosneft makes the ruble spike?
Rosneft gets the money, uses all of it to buy USD on the market, thus drastically increasing the supply of rubles in the currency market.
Shouldn't that drive ruble even more down, instead of up?

Anyway, I think I've polished my argument on why I support Russia in this conflict. Anybody wants to know?
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a1s

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #949 on: December 17, 2014, 12:38:05 pm »

I've heard rumors that the recent jump in ruble was because of 600 billion ruble credit the Central Bank has given to Rosneft to pay up their outer debt.

How a central bank credit given to rosneft makes the ruble spike?
Rosneft gets the money, uses all of it to buy USD on the market, thus drastically increasing the supply of rubles in the currency market.
Shouldn't that drive ruble even more down, instead of up?
Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2014, 12:41:32 pm by a1s »
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I tried to play chess but two of my opponents were playing competitive checkers as a third person walked in with Game of Thrones in hand confused cause they thought this was the book club.

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #950 on: December 17, 2014, 12:40:30 pm »

I've heard rumors that the recent jump in ruble was because of 600 billion ruble credit the Central Bank has given to Rosneft to pay up their outer debt.

How a central bank credit given to rosneft makes the ruble spike?
Rosneft gets the money, uses all of it to buy USD on the market, thus drastically increasing the supply of rubles in the currency market.
Shouldn't that drive ruble even more down, instead of up?
Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.
I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?
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a1s

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #951 on: December 17, 2014, 12:42:02 pm »

Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.
I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?
Dollar value, but yes. That's my theory anyway. (incidentally now is a good time to buy dollars for rubles- I will bet you 10 Internets right now, you'll sell them for no less than 65 rubles before the weekend.)
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I tried to play chess but two of my opponents were playing competitive checkers as a third person walked in with Game of Thrones in hand confused cause they thought this was the book club.

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #952 on: December 17, 2014, 12:52:41 pm »

Apparently Putin's press conferences are action movie material now.
I really like the obvious propaganda techniques in that video - scenes depicting bad events that happened outside Russia are followed by scenes depicting good events that happened in Russia. Maidan - Sochi Olympics, protests in the EU - Russian Soyuz launch, Ebola - Crimea. Such video composition tricks are a favourite of Russian state television.
Reports in liberal media, both in Russia and in Belarus, are vice versa: they tell how awful is Russia/Belarus and how awesome and incorruptible are the USA and the EU.
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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #953 on: December 17, 2014, 12:58:59 pm »

Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.
I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?
Dollar value, but yes. That's my theory anyway. (incidentally now is a good time to buy dollars for rubles- I will bet you 10 Internets right now, you'll sell them for no less than 65 rubles before the weekend.)
In opposition of your theory, it appears that all the Russian news outlets are saying something about "Russian Central Bank taking new measures to control the depreciation", which can signify that the recent counterattack of ruble is something that was deliberately induced.

Anyway, whatever this bout of appreciation was, it seems to have shut up the most hysterical of the interned doomsday prophets and dispelled the general atmosphere of pessimism in the Russian economic circles, and that's a very good thing, I believe.
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Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #954 on: December 17, 2014, 12:59:49 pm »

Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.
I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?
Dollar value, but yes. That's my theory anyway. (incidentally now is a good time to buy dollars for rubles- I will bet you 10 Internets right now, you'll sell them for no less than 65 rubles before the weekend.)
I'm gonna try and remember that bet. See if it carries out true.
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Fniff

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #955 on: December 17, 2014, 01:00:29 pm »

Anyway, whatever this bout of appreciation was, it seems to have shut up the most hysterical of the interned doomsday prophets and dispelled the general atmosphere of pessimism in the Russian economic circles, and that's a very good thing, I believe.
From what I hear, dispelling pessimism in any Russian circle seems like trying to uproot corruption in local Irish politics: good luck with that.

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #956 on: December 17, 2014, 01:02:25 pm »

Anyway, whatever this bout of appreciation was, it seems to have shut up the most hysterical of the interned doomsday prophets and dispelled the general atmosphere of pessimism in the Russian economic circles, and that's a very good thing, I believe.
From what I hear, dispelling pessimism in any Russian circle seems like trying to uproot corruption in local Irish politics: good luck with that.
Replace pessimism with cynicism and you'll be correct.
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wobbly

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #957 on: December 17, 2014, 01:07:33 pm »

Apparently Putin's press conferences are action movie material now.

As amusing as that was, it actually isn't much worse/different to the ads a commercial tv station sometimes run for it's nightly news program. While the aim here is more political then commercial, the technique is pretty much the same. Take short snippets of the dramatic news stories of the year & splice them together. The action movie music is a bit cheesy, but at this time of year I could turn the tv on & see a very similar ad for a news program over here.
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Sheb

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #958 on: December 17, 2014, 01:22:32 pm »

We'll, see, if the CB is propping up the rubles by selling yet more forex reserves, it's going to run out at some points.
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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #959 on: December 17, 2014, 01:26:56 pm »

We'll, see, if the CB is propping up the rubles by selling yet more forex reserves, it's going to run out at some points.
We have no proof that this is what's going on.
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