Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[mainiac]

So I go to the front page of that site and I see:

"Russian unrest at all time low, approval of Putin at all time high."
"IMF reported to be unhappy with Ukrainian reform progress."
"Chart: claim that 'Russia is Spain' misses the mark."
"#Ukraine needs about $15bn now or it will collapse, possibly in the next few weeks"

And then I check wikipedia and see that it's a company run out of Moscow.  Tell you what; if Ukraine collapses in the next few weeks, I'll start giving credence to this source.

[Sergarr]

Well shite, I thought it was an European source.

[FearfulJesuit]

Holy shit, the dollar is now trading at 66 rubles. 

(EDIT: A lot of this movement was today...twelve hours ago it only traded at 58 rubles.)

[Sergarr]

Poor Knit tie, I hope he already got rid of his rubles.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

I'd say I told you so, but I did say to exchange any rubles you have back when it was ~40.

[Sergarr]

And what would I do with a pile of USD? You can't buy anything in Russia with USD. Hell, keeping price lists in USD/EURO is a crime in Russia, and I know that because somebody already tried that.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

You'd have about 70% more net wealth if you did.

Remember when I told you that this was happening?

[Sergarr]

Absolutely useless non-liquid wealth.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Lol. Not as useful as losing 60% of it's value in 6 months.

[Sergarr]

Since we do not import all our products, the effect on prices is not going to be as ridiculous as that.

Remember, Russia still has some production facilities left, despite everybody thinking otherwise.

[mainiac]

Couldn't you just keep your money in Euros and then just convert what you need for a couple weeks back into Rubles?

I figure that the Ruble decline will probably stop sometime soonish.  There can't be that much more room for the Ruble to fall given that Russia doesn't have spiraling inflation.  But for all I know it could be anywhere from tomorrow to six months from now.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

It's got nowhere to go but down. Periods like this one result in redenominations, which the ruble has a long history of doing.

Especially since oil isn't breaking 60 any time until the next OPEC meeting.

[Sergarr]

Most of our family income heavily depends on export of high-technological products into Middle East/Africa, and contracts with these people specify costs in Euros, so I'm not particularly worried for myself.

[FearfulJesuit]

It's got nowhere to go but down. Periods like this one result in redenominations, which the ruble has a long history of doing.

Except that Russian inflation hasn't been very high so far. I mean, it's high (9.10% per year is the latest estimate), but it's not high enough to trigger a redenomination unless it gets a good deal higher. At 9.10%, doubling time (the time it takes for prices to double) is about eight years. Compare the redenominations of the early 90s- inflation was 2520% in '92, 840% in '93, and 224% in '94.

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia went through another period of very high inflation, but it isn't happening quite yet. Inflation's high, but it's still manageable. Nobody's making Lego bricks out of ruble bills or buying groceries with wheelbarrows.

[Zangi]

My take on the Russian economy/sanctions...

West:  "You Russians should be panicking and overturning your government.  You should be doing it soon!  Why arn't you doing it now?!"
Russia:  "Keep calm and go along with your everyday lives, we will survive."