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[Sheb]

Or just there being a lot of them willing to bet the rubles will fall, like a bubble in reverse?

[Knit tie]

Alright, ladies and gentlemen, to give everybody a break from Sergarr's ravings, here is my take on the situation.

1)Russia has not surrenddered. Lavrov's speech is just "milling water", he basically says that Ukraine can decide what to do with Donbass by itself, but it has to stop the ATO first, which is pretty much a repetition of what was said by the Russian government earlier. Political claptrap.

2)USA is in a sort of Cold War with Russia now. It has passed the "Ukraine freedom support act", or however its called, that basically calls Russia "a geopolitical enemy". There have also been sighting of american vehicles in Ukraine and a gathering of NATO forces on border with Russia. All of this is eerily similar to the old Cold War posturing excercises, not to mention all the rhetoric about "Russian aggression" and a prolonged political standoff. Still, we can expect no blanket sanctions because everybody needs Russian oil and gas.

3)The biggest threat to Russia right now is its own "nonliberal opposition", or a bunch of oligarchs who are anti-Putin. Its already obvious that they are conflicting, look at the recent "we need to stop speculants from devaluating ruble" - "no, speculants are good for the economy!" exchange. Or how the central bank opposes any sort of economic reforms, for that matter.

4)That said, the sanctions will drive the Russian economy into a recession in 2015, but there will be no economic collapse, I believe I've already posted links to several articles about this sort of thing.

5)A political coup is very unlikely, given how very few people support the most prominent opposition figures (Navalny, etc.) and how there are no real candidates to replace Putin otherwise. Civic unrest, otherwise, is pretty much bound to happen in one form or another, although it will most likely be limited and inconsequential.

[Sheb]

3) I seem to have missed the part about the central bank "opposing reform" (What do they have to say anyway?). Also, how do you want to stop the rubles from devaluating? Oil price are falling, sanctions are biting, there simply ain't that much money coming in to prop up the ruble.

4) I'm less certain after the recent rise. The markets can be a fickle beast, and start crashing way before the fundamentals drive everything down. Luckily, Russia doesn't have much debt, so a default is unlikely, but it's still going to hurt. Will it hurt enough to force Russia to give back Crimea? Who knows.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

I'm not sure that's the plan. The world if full of trader willing to make a quick buck by shorting the ruble.

If I could ever figure out the magic that gives short sellers the power they supposedly hold I would be a billionaire in a year.

If I'd have trusted my gut around ~32 I'd be doing pretty well right now.. It's pulling the trigger which is the hardest part. ;_;

Now certain places won't even allow ruble trading..

[Knit tie]

4) I'm less certain after the recent rise. The markets can be a fickle beast, and start crashing way before the fundamentals drive everything down. Luckily, Russia doesn't have much debt, so a default is unlikely, but it's still going to hurt. Will it hurt enough to force Russia to give back Crimea? Who knows.

No period. Russians are not Western Europeans, we will not mind being worse off in order to do what we consider right.

3) I seem to have missed the part about the central bank "opposing reform" (What do they have to say anyway?). Also, how do you want to stop the rubles from devaluating? Oil price are falling, sanctions are biting, there simply ain't that much money coming in to prop up the ruble.

Well, for starters, Russia could reorganise its enormously complex, enormously inefficient, corrupt Soviet relic of a bureaucratic system, so as to make life easier for non-huge businesses. That didn't happen, or at least not to the extent it should've reasonable happened. Or, Russia could impose limits on currency exchanges, so as to impede the hordes of speculants - ordinary people - who are in a frenzy to exchange their savings for foreign currency and are thus another driving force behind the ruble depreciation. Instead, all we get is a rhethoric about how free market is good and doing anything to it is bad.

[Sheb]

Well, capital controls may be needed, but they are a last resort, as they have a substantial costs. There are probably needed about now though. But I fail to see how the central bank is responsible for Russia not reforming its corrupt, soviet-era civil service.

And that's a common ground between Russians and Western Europeans in this crisis: both are willing to make Russians worse off for what they see as right. 

Also, it's "speculator", not "speculant".

[Knit tie]

Well, capital controls may be needed, but they are a last resort, as they have a substantial costs. There are probably needed about now though. But I fail to see how the central bank is responsible for Russia not reforming its corrupt, soviet-era civil service.

Not civil service - Soviet civil services were excellent. Business legislature. When you have to plow through endless seas of red tape and bribetaking officials in order to start a business, chances are, you won't start a lot of businesses. But the Central Bank has been long calling all economic reforms "unnecessary".

And basically, you are right. When we see something as cataclysmic as the recent depreciation of ruble, you need to do something, but the CB has done nothing, aside from the idiotic rate hike. At the very least, it could've prevented all the oligarch speculators from massively converting their rubles into euros and dollars in hopes of converting them back into rubles at a much better rate.

And that's a common ground between Russians and Western Europeans in this crisis: both are willing to make Russians worse off for what they see as right. 

Old joke:

What's the difference between Russians and Americans?
Russians are willing to die if it means doing the right thing.
Amercians are willing to bomb women and children if it means doing the right thing.

[Sheb]

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the current mess of red tape is not an accident: by making sure everyone has to break
some rules, the state effectively got power over everyone.

Still, it's the government's job to reform the state, not the central bank. And does the central bank even has power to implement capital controls?

[Helgoland]

Ah, selective enforcement, the real reason to oppose mass surveillance.

[smjjames]

Well, capital controls may be needed, but they are a last resort, as they have a substantial costs. There are probably needed about now though. But I fail to see how the central bank is responsible for Russia not reforming its corrupt, soviet-era civil service.

Not civil service - Soviet civil services were excellent. Business legislature. When you have to plow through endless seas of red tape and bribetaking officials in order to start a business, chances are, you won't start a lot of businesses. But the Central Bank has been long calling all economic reforms "unnecessary".

And basically, you are right. When we see something as cataclysmic as the recent depreciation of ruble, you need to do something, but the CB has done nothing, aside from the idiotic rate hike. At the very least, it could've prevented all the oligarch speculators from massively converting their rubles into euros and dollars in hopes of converting them back into rubles at a much better rate.

And that's a common ground between Russians and Western Europeans in this crisis: both are willing to make Russians worse off for what they see as right. 

Old joke:

What's the difference between Russians and Americans?
Russians are willing to die if it means doing the right thing.
Amercians are willing to bomb women and children if it means doing the right thing.

And a pretty bad joke at that *laughs sarcastically like a Russian*

[Knit tie]

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the current mess of red tape is not an accident: by making sure everyone has to break
some rules, the state effectively got power over everyone.

Still, it's the government's job to reform the state, not the central bank. And does the central bank even has power to implement capital controls?

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the USA had the worst human rights record in history.

Red tape is not an accident, it's a relic of the Soviet overgrown bureaucracy that nobody has bothered to change until now because it didn't really bother the people in power.

And does the central bank even has power to implement capital controls?

Absolutely. Russian Central Bank is independent from the government.

[Helgoland]

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the USA had the worst human rights record in history.

Considering that the Nazis were a thing, I guess this is more of a sign of you needing better sources of info than of America being terrible.

[smjjames]

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the current mess of red tape is not an accident: by making sure everyone has to break
some rules, the state effectively got power over everyone.

Still, it's the government's job to reform the state, not the central bank. And does the central bank even has power to implement capital controls?

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the USA had the worst human rights record in history.

Red tape is not an accident, it's a relic of the Soviet overgrown bureaucracy that nobody has bothered to change until now because it didn't really bother the people in power.

I've read a piece somewhere claiming that Russia ____ __ ____ ____ __ ____.

Fill in the blanks with whatever false flamebait crap

Seriously though, lets stop flinging shit at each other like it's 1950 or 1960 even.

[Knit tie]

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the USA had the worst human rights record in history.

Considering that the Nazis were a thing, I guess this is more of a sign of you needing better sources of info than of America being terrible.

It was a sarcastic claim that was supposed to illustrate that you shouldn't believe every piece you've read somewhere that claims something shocking.

Seriously though, lets stop flinging shit at each other like it's 1950 or 1960 even.

It's all in good fun, I believe, between myself, Helgo and Sheb. As opposed to Sergarr vs. Mainiac vs. Mictlan.

[smjjames]

I've read a piece somewhere that claimed that the USA had the worst human rights record in history.

Considering that the Nazis were a thing, I guess this is more of a sign of you needing better sources of info than of America being terrible.

It was a sarcastic claim that was supposed to illustrate that you shouldn't believe every piece you've read somewhere that claims something shocking.

Point taken.