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[Sheb]

Guardian, can you expand on how Belarus could not have followed the same path as the Baltics and Poland? Also, Poland for example is about twice as rich as Belarus in nominal GDP and 50% richer in PPP GDP. Why do you deride them as "not particularily prosperous places"?

[a1s]

Guardian, can you expand on how Belarus could not have followed the same path as the Baltics and Poland?

Probably looked at Ukraine. 

Also, Poland for example is about twice as rich as Belarus in nominal GDP and 50% richer in PPP GDP. Why do you deride them as "not particularily prosperous places"?

Perhaps he meant that Belarus and Ukraine would not be welcome in the EU because they're too poor? Poland and the Baltics are not First World rich, but their GDPs definitely picked up after they joined. (of course so did inflation, but you know- omelets and eggs)

[Descan]

You can't make an egg without reversing entropy on an omelette?

[a1s]

Incidentally, 1 USD is 59 RUB right now.

Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.

I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?

Dollar value, but yes. That's my theory anyway. (incidentally now is a good time to buy dollars for rubles- I will bet you 10 Internets right now, you'll sell them for no less than 65 rubles before the weekend.)

I'm gonna try and remember that bet. See if it carries out true.

Good thing I don't buy dollars!

Huh. I guess I owe you 10 internets. Even though dollar rose to 63.3 at one point, had you held out for 65 like I recommended, your dollar would now be worth ~2% less than when you started. This corresponds to about -82% APR and is spectacularly poor financial advice.

[Knit tie]

Incidentally, 1 USD is 59 RUB right now.

Yes and no. The immediate demand is what drew it down (presumably).  Now it bounces (not quite) back.

I see, so the recent spike in dollar value has been due to the credit, and now we are seeing the ruble value go down due to market forces?

Dollar value, but yes. That's my theory anyway. (incidentally now is a good time to buy dollars for rubles- I will bet you 10 Internets right now, you'll sell them for no less than 65 rubles before the weekend.)

I'm gonna try and remember that bet. See if it carries out true.

Good thing I don't buy dollars!

Huh. I guess I owe you 10 internets. Even though dollar rose to 63.3 at one point, had you held out for 65 like I recommended, your dollar would now be worth ~2% less than when you started. This corresponds to about -82% APR and is spectacularly poor financial advice.

Do you think ruble will appreciate any further?

[Sergarr]

I take it as the end of the Customs Union. So much for that.

[10ebbor10]

Google translate is not very cooperative.

So what happened. Did Russia ban Belarusian products?

[Sergarr]

Google translate is not very cooperative.

So what happened. Did Russia ban Belarusian products?

Russia continues to "hit itself so than others may fear it", and in an attempt to exclude all the European sanctioned food is clamping down on all possible re-export.

I still have no idea why did Putin ban food import.

Also I have no idea why Putin has thought that taking Crimea will not provoke a serious international response.

[smjjames]

Google translate is not very cooperative.

So what happened. Did Russia ban Belarusian products?

Google translate works fine for me.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rbc.ru%2Frbcfreenews%2F5495503a9a7947a3423ef14d&edit-text=

To summarize, Russia banned food from Belarus going to Khazakistan (or maybe any food crossing the border) due to "the detection of bacteria, microbes, antibiotics and African swine virus genome St. frost." and Lukashenko is calling the ban mindless.

The only part that doesn't make sense is the 'virus genome st. frost', but I'm guessing it just means some strain of it.

[Guardian G.I.]

Google translate is not very cooperative.

So what happened. Did Russia ban Belarusian products?

Russian authorities thought that our food companies, especially meat packing plants, re-export EU goods into Russia, so they banned the import of meat products by several Belarusian companies under the usual pretext of sanitary violations.

The only part that doesn't make sense is the 'virus genome st. frost', but I'm guessing it just means some strain of it.

"African swine virus genome St. frost" actually means "the genome of African swine fever virus". Outbreaks of that virus occured in Belarus in 2013 and 2014. Russia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine also had outbreaks of ASF in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

[Sergarr]

http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub
http://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-rub

Seems like whatever caused that peak a few days ago was dealt with swiftly, and the market is returning to more balanced state.

[Comrade P.]

PTW. Eh.. I just noticed that thread somehow.

[Sheb]

Well, banning food import is the reasons Russia still got a current-account surplus. (Or at least had a week ago). Without that, its foreign exchange reserve would have collapsed faster. Food make sense, because it's a relatively low-tech industry, it's easier to import-substitute food than other goods, especially if you have plentiful of arable land.

[Knit tie]

Well, banning food import is the reasons Russia still got a current-account surplus. (Or at least had a week ago). Without that, its foreign exchange reserve would have collapsed faster. Food make sense, because it's a relatively low-tech industry, it's easier to import-substitute food than other goods, especially if you have plentiful of arable land.

And our agricultural sector could've very easily grown back to its Soviet production levels all those years ago if only it had an incentive to do so in the shape of imported food not being so much more profitable to sell, like it has now.

[Sheb]

Well, it's not only incentive that matters. There are plenty or reasons why the Russian agricultural sector sucks, from ownership structure to the collapse of agricultural extension services post-communism. Generally speaking, sheltering a sector from competition is not the best way to make it productive if you don't offer additional incentives.