in fact, sieges in 34.xx didnt show up that fast, neither did ambushes. The first ambush never showed up before the 2nd winter, in fact, the first snatcher won't show up before that and won't more likely before the third, possibly the 4th or even the 5th year. One extreme case didnt have anything untill the 6th year when a siege suddenly showed up. Very simply put, you are just way too impatient.
I don't think I was impatient, I went 4 years without even a thief. Though I did get two werebeasts who slaughtered a few fisherdwarves, but those are fairly easy to kill with a 20 dwarf army.
if you went 4 years without a thief, he is AT MOST 1 YEAR late. He may possibly show up at the 2nd winter, but it's not that likely and depends a lot on fortress wealth and how close they are. It is the earliest any goblin or kobold is possible to show up at all. He's likely to show up the third winter, but no guarantee, same for the 4th. By the 5th it's starting to get late, 6th is strange but not unheard of. If you checked your neighbours before embark and it showed goblins, they'll get to you at some point. Make a lot of stuff, give traders outrageous profits and in general just let the world know how rich you are, it may help.
That the world is now alive may also contribute to goblin lateness, I don't know, but if they have a big army in the field, they may not have anyone to spare to bother you