Posting from phone, will do proper analysis/questioning over the weekend.
ScriptenIf [Flabort] were to flip town today, I'd probably go for Worldmaster27, since he feels a little detached from the events unfolding.
Do you still think World master is detached?
Notably, let's take a look at NGT's table of reads:
So Flabort is almost exclusively scumread. (Persus13 isn't listed as having a scum read on him, but I think it's pretty obvious that he did.) We can all agree on that. But look at NQT's read on Flabort. That's some pretty solid green there, isn't it? Almost as if he knew Flabort was going to flip town.
Yes, I was pretty sure that Flabort was going to flip town for all the good reasons I mentioned. I have the same info all the other town players have, just a better understanding of how town players actually play.
Also, check this out:
TheDarkStar - Most likely scum buddy: Scripten (they both have nice things to say about each other). Least likely scum buddy: Flabort (they both have scum reads on one another)
Scripten - Most likely scum buddy: anyone except Flabort. Least likely scum buddy: Flabort
Urist Imiknorris/Cheetah - Most likely scum buddy: almost anyone. Least likely scum buddy: Worldmaster
Flabort - Most likely scum partner: Deathsword is pretty much the only option here (they both give each other null reads, everyone else hates Flabort). Least likely scum partner: everyone other than Deathsword.
Varee - Most likely scum partner: pretty much even chance of Cheetah, Scripten or TDS at this stage. Least likely scum partner: Flabort.
Persus13 - Most likely scum partner: Scripten or TDS. Least likely scum partner: Flabort.
WorldMaster - Most likely scum partner: Scripten. Least likely scum partner: Cheetah.
Deathsword - Most likely scum partner: Flabort. Least likely scum partner: Varee.
Flabort shows up as a likely scumbuddy on one(!) other player. Deathsword. Interesting. So that scum read NQT has on Deathsword seems to only support scum-Flabort.
My argument was that if Flabort were scum, only one player (Deathsword) could realistically be his partner given how everyone else had acted towards him. I've got a list of every possible scum-team combo and I've been eliminating the least likely combos based on people's behaviour. As I tried to made clear in my reads, Deathsword could have been a scum partner with quite a few players because most people gave him a null read and weren't voting him.
Pretty clever way to clear another player, to have their only viable scumbuddy flip town, no? And NQT had his vote on Deathsword come the end of the day. They couldn't possibly be a scumteam if he was voting him so close to deadline, right? Smells majorly scummy.
But I don't think Deathsword is cleared in the slightest. I voted Deathsword because he was the least engaged player who could have formed the most possible teams on D1. Now I have more info, you and TheDarkStar are looking like better lynch candidates (again, I want to look over my notes before I start forming fresh cases).
Now I've explained where I was coming from, do you still think you have a case?
NQT: So, let's do some hypothetical legwork.
If you were scum, who would you have targeted last night?
If you were the cop, who would you have investigated last night?
If you were the jailer, who would you have jailed last night?
No need for the why, but feel free to include it if you want.
I think scum most likely targeted me last night, but if I was in fact scum then I'd have killed Cheetah. If I tell you who I'd have jailed/investigated and I picked scum names, then the scum would know which of those roles I am not, and that is too much information to give to them. Do you disagree?
CheetahI didn't tie the votes, honest.
Sorry, it was the early hours of the morning and in my tired state I miscounted.
I find it odd that NQT doesn't find it odd or even notable that I find Flabort scummy but I'm not voting for him when he's close to being lynched.
Your reason
here was a good reason to switch votes. I was reasonable sure Flabort was town, so I didn't find someone moving away from a town lynch to be suspicious. It'd have been more suspicious if you'd have done it when there was zero chance of an alternative being lynched, but someone else could definitely have swapped votes as well in those last few hours.
Let me posit my own scumteam in the event of Flabort flipping scum: NQT/Flabort.
Well you were right about us being on the same team...
Mathematically- would it be a good idea for the jailer to claim jailer and who they blocked, as it was almost certainly scum?
I think the correct play is to keep quiet unless you're about to be lynched, and work towards pressing a case on your suspect. Worst case they claim, we lynch the N1 night kill target and then scum kill the jailor N2.
WorldmasterBased on how it is now? For flipping town, I'd probably vote Varee, who I find second most scummy, but I'd rather scumhunt before voting. For flipping scum, I would likely shift my focus to Varee or Deathsword who seem to be the most impartial to flabort.
Reasonable response. Do you see anything scummy in today's posts?
Jack I'm fine with 24 hour extensions.
PersusNQT: I guess you were vindicated about flabort. Do you still use vote stats at all? Are you going to continue to go after Deathsword or has the break and the flip given you a better target?
I do still use vote stats and I'm disappointed at least two town players couldn't see how terrible a lynch candidate Flabort was. I'm working on my phone here, when I get back to a real computer I'll reassess the evidence and recalibrate my suspicions. Deathsword would still make a good target, but before my final decision on Monday, I want to see a lot more cases from everyone.
NQT: Is it possible to see your table of reads in text form? Otherwise I can't understand part of Scripten's case on you.
As soon as I get to a real computer, sure. I just colour coded everyone's reads as I've done in previous games.