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Author Topic: Ye Gods 1 OOC [21/∞] Talk here  (Read 438349 times)

IcyTea31

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4095 on: January 31, 2015, 01:39:33 pm »

Here we go. One pass for off-topic discussion on this thread, please, paid with fanart lazily modified from another picture.

Spoiler: Azem in his funny hat (click to show/hide)
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There is a world yet only seen by physicists and magicians.

Vgray

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4096 on: January 31, 2015, 01:50:13 pm »

Could I get a version of that I could use as my avatar?
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Stirk

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4097 on: January 31, 2015, 01:58:39 pm »

Are we even having the same conversation? Half the time it feels like you are talking past me rather than too me.

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Read my posts, Stirk, before responding. Memory Contest people. Do it for shows and the like. It is a real, if uncommon, thing; just cause you haven't heard of it til now doesn't mean it's not real.

*Sigh* No. You read my post. In case it wasn't clear, I was subtly implying that this has never ever happened, from the first time our ancestors figured out they could stand on two feet to me hitting the "post" button. Because it hasn't. "Memory Contest people" don't typically have a better memory then most people, and use tricks. Such as memorizing the periodic table to the tune of your favorite song. No "memory contest participant" has ever gone insane from trying to memorize things. In fact, no "memory contest people" ever remembered a significant amount more then what a normal human would in the course of their lifetime. There has never been a single case of this happening ever. Ever. I think I made it clear now?

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Additionally, if nothing else we could always just make what amount to mechanical neurons, with how nanotechnology and gentix engineering is progressing. In ten years? Probably not. In twenty? Still unlikely. But thirty years is a long time for technology, in the modern day.

People in general greatly overestimate the abilities of nanomachines, by the way people talk about them one would assume they where little Gods. You are still vastly underestimating the human brain. Do you not understand how difficult it would be to make anything like the human brain out of metal? There are trillions of connections. Microscopic connections. We would practically have to have control over every single atom to make that even feasible. Thirty years, fifty years, two hundred years is far to short a time to make something like that happen.

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Well, Stirk, you aren't the foremost expert nor do I have any reason to believe you would be better educated in the field I'm more or less planning to go into than I do, so I have zero reason to believe your assumptions and sources are any more credible than my own! And yes I simplified it a bit but the gist of AI is a set of software and behavioral principles that constantly learns and adapts. That's more or less what intelligence is.

The fact you think they can be on par with humans is what the real problem is. If what you are looking for is a video game that learns new skill in a very small area in a very set pattern, we might manage to have that in thirty years. It won't be nearly as adaptable as, say, a mentally ill rat, or able to do anything not in its game, but if that is what your goal is...

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Also, one neuron doesn't equal one byte. They aren't on-off switches that can be read and interpreted. There're pathways and snipped bits and the bits that don't do anything besides preventing another bit from functioning and blah-dy-blah-dy blah. Just because I don't feel like getting into an in-depth discussion about the nature of organic versus inorganic processing power doesn't mean I don't know what I'm talking about. I just don't care enough about debating things with you, because you just do it for argument's sake rather than any actual desire to learn. Or do anything other than point at people you arbitrarily decide are less intelligent than you because they have different viewpoints beliefs and ideas, and laugh at them for being stupid.

....*Sigh again*...Did you read any of the source assuming how much information was stored in the brain? First, I never claimed a neuron equals one byte. Some of the sources guessing the amount of information the brain could store did, though. You DON'T know what you are talking about. Using the "I totally know what I am talking about I just don't want to share." excuse isn't about to work on me.

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Just remembered the rule about off-topic conversations. I'll make some fanart in a while.

I thought that was only for politics  :-\

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Technology causes a change in society we couldn't even have imagined, say, 50 years ago.

Huh, I never heard that term used like that before.

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'Near future'? Try 'now'.

Can you summarize? I am in a kinda-sorta-public lounge while my roommate is sleeping and don't want to make a lot of noise.

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It has happened before. Agriculture, writing, gunpowder, industry, computers... And the way it is going, it has to happen or we (mankind) will collapse as the current form of society does.

Even though I know what you mean by "Singularity" now, I still don't really like it as a classification. As a rule, we are horrible at assuming future advances as a people. I don't see mankind collapsing any time soon, and cannot fathom what you mean by that.

Those advancements really didn't change things all that much, at their base. Society as a whole has, more or less, not changed much even with all the advancements and technology. A Roman may had access to less technology and different viewpoints, but he really isn't all that different from a Modern American. Humans are still humans, and there really is no reason to assume "Soon the world will change spectacularly forever" in my opinion.

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That is one solution. Getting it to work in practice is another problem, though.

If we can somehow magically make machines more intelligent, why would it be any harder to get humans more intelligent? Especially with the assistance of all the now-intelligent machines.

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I can't find anything like that existing. The closest thing I can find is hyperthymesia, which doesn't appear to work at all as you describe. They seem to have some difficulties, but it appears to be more "Keep getting distracted thinking about the past because they have legitimate OCD about it", and they haven't "lost the ability to forget" so much as they obsess about their past to the point it is nearly impossible to forget.

I had addressed that. As the rest of the article states, there is reason to believe it is essentially a form of OCD, which has the same problems. Basically what I am saying that it is not a problem that has to do with "memory overload" or whatever.
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DreamerGhost

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4098 on: January 31, 2015, 02:16:29 pm »

You realy should watch the video Stirk, it has proper subtitles and contains answer to this argument between you and IcyTea.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4099 on: January 31, 2015, 02:19:49 pm »

Can you summarize? I am in a kinda-sorta-public lounge while my roommate is sleeping and don't want to make a lot of noise.
Robots can now replace humans in so many different jobs that employment will, as the technology advances, become a worse problem than it is now. That includes creative work. The video is quite alarmistic, so with some skepticism I can say, an even worse employment crisis might hit the developed countries in a few decades.

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Society as a whole has, more or less, not changed much even with all the advancements and technology.
Wrong. Up until agriculture, almost every person had to hunt or gather their own food. Up until printing press, people were in the dark of what is going on beyond the vicinity of their hometown or may home country. Up until the atomic bomb, war was a political option worth considering. Society keeps changing across the history, and is not going to stop doing so any time soon. On the contrary, it seems to be accelerating if you look at a timeline of great advancements.

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I don't see mankind collapsing any time soon, and cannot fathom what you mean by that.
It likely won't. My point is, there is a big change in society coming (jobs run out), and we need to adapt or die.

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If we can somehow magically make machines more intelligent, why would it be any harder to get humans more intelligent? Especially with the assistance of all the now-intelligent machines.
In this hypothetical situation, absolutely. Real life is more complicated, but I trust we (mankind) can eventually find the solutions to our problems.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4100 on: January 31, 2015, 02:36:51 pm »

Could I get a version of that I could use as my avatar?
I already shut down my main computer for today, but I can do that tomorrow. If you want it sooner, go ahead and do the trivial thing yourself; if you don't know how, it's really so simple you can probably find a guide with your preferred search engine.
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Stirk

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4101 on: January 31, 2015, 02:40:42 pm »

You realy should watch the video Stirk, it has proper subtitles and contains answer to this argument between you and IcyTea.

I might later. I won't now. I don't even know if I have the battery life left to finish it.

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Robots can now replace humans in so many different jobs that employment will, as the technology advances, become a worse problem than it is now. That includes creative work. The video is quite alarmistic, so with some skepticism I can say, an even worse employment crisis might hit the developed countries in a few decades.

I would disagree. New technology has allowed for more new jobs, while freeing up labor for new positions. Going back to the agriculture example, it allowed for people to not have to be hunter-gatherers, making divisions of labor possible and allowing the concept of jobs to exist. In more modern times, computer, the internet, and technology in general is a huge business that has opened up many new (good) job opportunities while not really removing any.

Besides, that is a very first-world-western specific context. We still have millions of people who live without technology, who don't have expensive tractors or factories or other labor saving devices. Even now that America has the industrial capacity to make a massive amount of materials cheaply, industry is often outsourced to low-tech areas who essentially just do the job because it is cheaper.

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Wrong. Up until agriculture, almost every person had to hunt or gather their own food. Up until printing press, people were in the dark of what is going on beyond the vicinity of their hometown or may home country. Up until the atomic bomb, war was a political option worth considering. Society keeps changing across the history, and is not going to stop doing so any time soon. On the contrary, it seems to be accelerating if you look at a timeline of great advancements.

Agriculture may have been a massive change, but once people settled down the changes really aren't significant. People didn't really need to know what went on beyond their homes, it didn't really effect them. The world got smaller, but the small world still acted the same as the big one did. There wasn't any massive differences between, say again, a middle class American and a "middle class" Roman. If an alien visited the planet at those two times, he would be able to tell they where from the same species and probably believe they are from the same culture. If you really think that the Atomic Bomb somehow removed war from politics, you really haven't been paying attention to the gift of the printing press, have you? War has still gone on the same way it always had, the Atomic Bomb didn't really change anything. It might discourage mass-deployments, but I don't believe that will last long and certainly won't last forever.

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It likely won't. My point is, there is a big change in society coming (jobs run out), and we need to adapt or die.

You think humanity will be wiped out because we have no jobs? That is certainly not a fate I was expecting "Oh! My job at the factory was replaced by a machine! *Heart explodes*". Really, if that somehow did happen, it would probably be a simple "Affirmative Action" law. "For every five robots you hire you are required to hire one human." Done!
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IcyTea31

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4102 on: January 31, 2015, 03:05:58 pm »

New technology has allowed for more new jobs, while freeing up labor for new positions.
Really, do watch the video when you get the chance. It addresses this exact argument, among others.

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Besides, that is a very first-world-western specific context. We still have millions of people who live without technology...
You are completely correct on that this is a problem of the developed countries. (minus the western-specific part) I still wouldn't want to move to a developing country just to get a job, unless it was my only option.

Your next paragraph is completely debatable with some good points, but I won't take the time to research and debate it.

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You think humanity will be wiped out because we have no jobs? That is certainly not a fate I was expecting "Oh! My job at the factory was replaced by a machine! *Heart explodes*". Really, if that somehow did happen, it would probably be a simple "Affirmative Action" law. "For every five robots you hire you are required to hire one human." Done!
That is one solution worth considering, but the people hiring would only want to hire the cheaper robots and protest/lobby/vote-with-their-feet/take-political-action against the law, no matter how bad an idea that would be.

No source on this one, but someone once said "Mankind is so smart it could destroy all life on Earth - and so stupid it might actually do it." Not completely on this topic, but I feel it fits the theme somewhat.
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Rolepgeek

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4103 on: January 31, 2015, 03:11:02 pm »

You know, if we can produce everything relatively labor-free, it's not like we'll have to find something brand new to spend all our time doing. There will still be research and creative projects, if nothing else. If we can produce everything easily, then there's no real need for anyone to be poor because there's enough for everyone, and money becomes more or less pointless in a truly labor-free society.

Unemployment is only a problem when that means no one wants to give them stuff because there's not enough stuff. When there is enough stuff, why would not having to work be a bad thing?

I'm not even responding to half of what Stirk says at this point because he's just refusing to listen. Allow me to make myself clear then: You are wrong, Stirk. It has happened, just because you say it doesn't or haven't heard it or can't find it in five minutes of Google searching doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Or maybe you misunderstand what I mean by insane, or something. I don't really care at this point, because you're just deciding to go with your interpretation and stick your fingers in your ears and refuse to hear anything else. I know my sources, and from what I can tell they're accurate. While you're spouting off absolutes, which are almost always bad ideas if they don't have qualifiers attached. And trying to lump all mental illnesses of one sort or another as being just another form of X, as if they had the same symptoms or issues caused to the person afflicted or were treated in the same way is just rather silly, like saying all forms of cancer are caused by and can thus be treated by the same thing.

Anyway. Really, what should happen is that as labor becomes easier to outsource and multiply effectiveness, the theoretical solution for the unemployed is to get them to help producing even more, not trying to create work so they have something to do.

As for nanomachines; yeah, I understand the complexities involved. I also understand the rate at which the industry's advancing, considering it's the field I'm planning to eventually get a PhD in. So I don't find the concept of artificial neurons so very complex we can't manage to figure it out in the next thirty years. Will it be good AI? Probably not, but it'll help start sparking the civil rights debates over AIs being people. So, yeah.

I'm not posting links to shit because I can't be bothered to go find an article about it, partially because about half this stuff wasn't from the internet, it was from, say, actually interacting with a local nanotechnologist to get information about the profession.

Excuse me while I go back to things not involving everyone involved making essentially unbacked claims.

Oh wait I'm watching Let's Plays that's exactly what they do. Silly me.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4104 on: January 31, 2015, 03:20:51 pm »

You know, if we can produce everything relatively labor-free, it's not like we'll have to find something brand new to spend all our time doing. There will still be research and creative projects, if nothing else. If we can produce everything easily, then there's no real need for anyone to be poor because there's enough for everyone, and money becomes more or less pointless in a truly labor-free society.
What's that I hear? A change in how society is formed? But yes, I agree, this is the solution I'd strive for. Would you believe me if I told you I was going to say that as soon as everyone understands what's going on?

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Anyway. Really, what should happen is that as labor becomes easier to outsource and multiply effectiveness, the theoretical solution for the unemployed is to get them to help producing even more, not trying to create work so they have something to do.
I'm not sure if I understand, but here's a response making an assumption on what you mean: This could work, but there is the problem of robots being better and cheaper at making more robots than humans are.
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Stirk

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4105 on: January 31, 2015, 03:37:28 pm »

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Really, do watch the video when you get the chance. It addresses this exact argument, among others.

Is it at least interesting? I am usually bored with this kind of thing, and arguing with videos isn't much fun. They don't usually argue back.

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You are completely correct on that this is a problem of the developed countries. (minus the western-specific part) I still wouldn't want to move to a developing country just to get a job, unless it was my only option.

Eh, I meant "Western-Culture" specific, as our Western culture seems to be the one most saturated with machines (as opposed to, say, Russian culture. Nobody ever assumes computers are going to rise up and take over Russia). My point was that it would certainly not be the end of the world, you seemed to think it would absolutely destroy us.

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Your next paragraph is completely debatable with some good points, but I won't take the time to research and debate it.

Fair enough, its not like we have any purpose to this conversation  :P. There really is no need to put any work into it.

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That is one solution worth considering, but the people hiring would only want to hire the cheaper robots and protest/lobby/vote-with-their-feet/take-political-action against the law, no matter how bad an idea that would be.

Would they? I think that is really assuming the worse of them. Most people who are "doing the hiring", at least on the major scale, have some knowlage on how business and economics work. I am sure they realize that the unlikely event, literally all jobs being stolen by machines, would mean that nobody has any money to buy their stuff with. Even if they didn't, they would probably realize when nobody could afford anything they are selling.

As for RolepGeek, I am pretty sure he is pretty clear about not wanting an actual conversation, and seems to be suggesting that he is going to say what he wants and leave without actually reading anything I say. Even reading his post at this point would be a waste of my time ::).

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What's that I hear? A change in how society is formed? But yes, I agree, this is the solution I'd strive for. Would you believe me if I told you I was going to say that as soon as everyone understands what's going on?

I thought you stated something like "Including creative projects" was covered in the video? Besides, even if remove labor from everything, it doesn't exactly make things cheap enough for everyone to afford. We don't have infinite resources, after all.

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I'm not sure if I understand, but here's a response making an assumption on what you mean: This could work, but there is the problem of robots being better and cheaper at making more robots than humans are.

Another option I remember is just outsourcing brainpower. Directly, somehow using it as a computer. Even if robots have a 1000 times the memory of a single human, the brainpower of a thousand humans could still be useful. Because we are not going to get to that point for a very, very long time, there is no real reason to speculate.
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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4106 on: January 31, 2015, 03:41:48 pm »

What are we argueing about?
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IcyTea31

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4107 on: January 31, 2015, 03:47:30 pm »

Would they? I think that is really assuming the worse of them. Most people who are "doing the hiring", at least on the major scale, have some knowlage on how business and economics work. I am sure they realize that the unlikely event, literally all jobs being stolen by machines, would mean that nobody has any money to buy their stuff with. Even if they didn't, they would probably realize when nobody could afford anything they are selling.
You have more faith in humanity than I do. That's all I have to say on that.

I'll be going to sleep around now, no more long multi-argument debate posts today.
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Andres

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4108 on: January 31, 2015, 03:48:43 pm »

....Wh...what? When has anyone ever gone insane from having memorized so much stuff the overloaded? When has anyone even assumed that was possible?
What Rolep said was wrong about memory contest people but memory overload is an actual thing, and not just by association. A human will actually start to run out of memory at about 106-138 years old.

The full phrase in Andres' post was "memory overload from associations".
Rolep said that. I'd never even mentioned memory overload before now.

Just remembered the rule about off-topic conversations. I'll make some fanart in a while.
That was for politics. Philosophy and science are free game.

Personally, I think the next revolution will happen within the next 5 years. The need for oil to power our cars will go massively down once hoverboards become ubiquitous, thus ending many resource wars and getting that much closer to world peace! :D

What are we argueing about?
AI, its future effects on society, when it'll start massively affecting society, scientific advancement in general, and the operating ability of the human brain.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2015, 04:17:16 pm by Andres »
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Cryxis, Prince of Doom

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Re: Ye Gods OOC [13/∞] Sign up/talk here
« Reply #4109 on: January 31, 2015, 03:55:23 pm »

AI already massively affects society today
And in the future it will probably find a way to make itself and if we allow it to think freely you can say good bye to us walking meat sacks
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