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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: Mafia Victory!  (Read 41504 times)

Kilojoule Proton

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #60 on: October 12, 2014, 01:38:08 pm »

I think I will switch my vote to Eyjafjallajökull. I justify this with the fact that as a (relatively) inactive player, the game would run just as smoothly anyway, although my (flawed, newbie) intuition tells me that it will be more useful to lynch an active player, who will be more likely to even perform nightkills. Hopefully, this does not approach the WIFOM cycle. Of course (and this is the near-WIFOM part), it could be that inactive players are the best to keep because statistically, they are more likely to be town at this point, and I imagine that in final stages of the game, one townsperson could mean the difference between a town victory and a scum victory. Or, of course, Eyjafjallajökull could be a silent mafioso and catch (at least) me off guard until the end. But then, Eyjafjallajökull could just as easily be town....
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GayArchaea

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #61 on: October 12, 2014, 01:52:10 pm »

I think I will switch my vote to Eyjafjallajökull. I justify this with the fact that as a (relatively) inactive player, the game would run just as smoothly anyway, although my (flawed, newbie) intuition tells me that it will be more useful to lynch an active player, who will be more likely to even perform nightkills. Hopefully, this does not approach the WIFOM cycle. Of course (and this is the near-WIFOM part), it could be that inactive players are the best to keep because statistically, they are more likely to be town at this point, and I imagine that in final stages of the game, one townsperson could mean the difference between a town victory and a scum victory. Or, of course, Eyjafjallajökull could be a silent mafioso and catch (at least) me off guard until the end. But then, Eyjafjallajökull could just as easily be town....
It is far better to lynch active players because we'll then know whether their questions came from a town mind or a scum mind.
Nevertheless, 4maskwolf: Assuming you're town, Would you lynch d1: The player who makes few posts, or the player who makes posts full of useless information?
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Worldmaster27

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #62 on: October 12, 2014, 02:22:15 pm »

GayArchaea:
Well then, Worldmaster27: Assuming you're a mafia goon, and there are five townies left, who would you kill in the night: the one you suspect to be the cop, the one you suspect to be the jailkeeper, the one who is rather suspicious of you, the one who somehow managed to not get lynched, or the one who (foolishly) believes you're town?
It would depend on the possicop and possijailor's attitude towards me. If possicop is even somewhat suspicious of me, than I'd kill him. He has the greatest ability to end my game quickly. If possijailor is suspicious of me and jails me, than NK are no longer relevant. That's where the day game becomes infinitely more important for me, then because I am, effectively, just a vanilla townie with evil intentions. However, both the cop and jailor are not really suspicious of me, and either eliminate one of the moderate proponent's of the near-lynch guy's lynch or the cop just because he's maybe cop and try to pin it on near-lynch guy.

Also GayArchaea, to me at least, that first statement seems a tad scummy. You're saying to lynch the active players first, but an inactive town is a dead town, and I think it is better to get a lurker than someone who is actively participating. If you get rid of those who are scumhunting, it's far easier for scum to avoid having to post anything since no one's going to be asking questions and pressuring them.
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #63 on: October 12, 2014, 02:51:22 pm »

GayArchaea:
Well then, Worldmaster27: Assuming you're a mafia goon, and there are five townies left, who would you kill in the night: the one you suspect to be the cop, the one you suspect to be the jailkeeper, the one who is rather suspicious of you, the one who somehow managed to not get lynched, or the one who (foolishly) believes you're town?
It would depend on the possicop and possijailor's attitude towards me. If possicop is even somewhat suspicious of me, than I'd kill him. He has the greatest ability to end my game quickly. If possijailor is suspicious of me and jails me, than NK are no longer relevant. That's where the day game becomes infinitely more important for me, then because I am, effectively, just a vanilla townie with evil intentions. However, both the cop and jailor are not really suspicious of me, and either eliminate one of the moderate proponent's of the near-lynch guy's lynch or the cop just because he's maybe cop and try to pin it on near-lynch guy.

Also GayArchaea, to me at least, that first statement seems a tad scummy. You're saying to lynch the active players first, but an inactive town is a dead town, and I think it is better to get a lurker than someone who is actively participating. If you get rid of those who are scumhunting, it's far easier for scum to avoid having to post anything since no one's going to be asking questions and pressuring them.

This is a pretty good post. Not particularly alignment-indicative, but it's good stuff. Lurkers are bad on either side.

Illgeo: Oh, yes. I'm more than happy to drill lurkers until they disappear. So if you inted to win as town or survive as scum, we will kindly have you participating actively. :P
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GayArchaea

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #64 on: October 12, 2014, 03:00:42 pm »

GayArchaea:
Well then, Worldmaster27: Assuming you're a mafia goon, and there are five townies left, who would you kill in the night: the one you suspect to be the cop, the one you suspect to be the jailkeeper, the one who is rather suspicious of you, the one who somehow managed to not get lynched, or the one who (foolishly) believes you're town?
It would depend on the possicop and possijailor's attitude towards me. If possicop is even somewhat suspicious of me, than I'd kill him. He has the greatest ability to end my game quickly. If possijailor is suspicious of me and jails me, than NK are no longer relevant. That's where the day game becomes infinitely more important for me, then because I am, effectively, just a vanilla townie with evil intentions. However, both the cop and jailor are not really suspicious of me, and either eliminate one of the moderate proponent's of the near-lynch guy's lynch or the cop just because he's maybe cop and try to pin it on near-lynch guy.

Also GayArchaea, to me at least, that first statement seems a tad scummy. You're saying to lynch the active players first, but an inactive town is a dead town, and I think it is better to get a lurker than someone who is actively participating. If you get rid of those who are scumhunting, it's far easier for scum to avoid having to post anything since no one's going to be asking questions and pressuring them.
Alas, Worldmaster27, the reason why I say so is because while the players who are still alive can not be completely trusted in their accusations, players who are dead, should they roleflip as town, can have their previous statements be fully trusted due to their lack of an agenda. I do admit that there is the possibility of scum lurking, so we should in fact pressure lurkers, we do need increase the number of active people after all. This is not to say that we should lynch those we believe to be town, that would be incredibly self-damaging. This is mostly to say that we should lynch an active player we suspect to be scum. still, lurking while questions are being thrown at you is a scummy move.   
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Illgeo

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #65 on: October 12, 2014, 03:14:24 pm »

Illgeo: Do you plan to be more active in this game than BM48? How do you think to best go about doing this?
Well, at least I will try to be.
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Illgeo

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #66 on: October 12, 2014, 03:15:26 pm »

Although most likely tomorrow, because it“s night here.
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TheDarkStar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #67 on: October 12, 2014, 04:22:01 pm »

This is my IC text. Everything I write in it is always trustworthy; I can also use it, if I die, after I am dead to give general advice.

TheDarkStar If there is any trouble of telling whose who, cop is scum, because only scum would say he's not, unless he doesn't say anything, to make you think he's nothing, but on the right foot, there's the possibility of....

Unvote. The thing that you describe where you're trying to guess what someone else did with nothing to go off of is called WIFOM (Wine In Front Of Me) and is a reference to the Princess Bride movie. Arguments based off it tend to be fairly useless. If it occurs, you should probably ask more questions to limit the uncertainty.

4mask + TDS: Any IC advice to give at the moment?

Not that much. This post mostly consists of it, though.

I think I will switch my vote to Eyjafjallajökull. I justify this with the fact that as a (relatively) inactive player, the game would run just as smoothly anyway, although my (flawed, newbie) intuition tells me that it will be more useful to lynch an active player, who will be more likely to even perform nightkills. Hopefully, this does not approach the WIFOM cycle. Of course (and this is the near-WIFOM part), it could be that inactive players are the best to keep because statistically, they are more likely to be town at this point, and I imagine that in final stages of the game, one townsperson could mean the difference between a town victory and a scum victory. Or, of course, Eyjafjallajökull could be a silent mafioso and catch (at least) me off guard until the end. But then, Eyjafjallajökull could just as easily be town....

Your newbie intuition is mostly correct. However, inactive people aren't more likely to be town/scum. RL often interferes in people's ability to play mafia, so people often have legitimate reasons to be gone. On the other hand...

...Eyja and everyone else who hasn't posted yet: Post! We need you to play!
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Salsacookies

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #68 on: October 12, 2014, 08:40:19 pm »

Worldmaster27: I would probably go with accusing others too quickly with wild abandon. Would seem too blatent to me, but that may be what a troll wants you to think.

Random vote

GayArchaea
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Worldmaster27

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #69 on: October 12, 2014, 08:55:44 pm »

Salsacookies: Don't just random vote someone, even at this point in the game. Ask him questions. Pressure him. Read all of his posts, and question him on why he did or said certain things.

And can you please answer the question (What would you say is the most important scumtell to look for?) straight? You said that "accusing others too quickly with wild abandon" would be the most important, yet you said that it "Would seem to blatant to me." Is it good to look for or not?

Another thing I noticed, you seem to jump to recursive reasoning very quickly. It can be taken as trying to confuse us, but I'll let it go as your being a newb for now. But please try to stop that and keep it to yourself, if you are actually thinking that. You aren't helping us with that.
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Kilojoule Proton

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #70 on: October 12, 2014, 09:11:30 pm »

So are we approaching anything resembling a consensus? It seems it would have been much faster were everyone active.
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #71 on: October 12, 2014, 10:13:08 pm »

So are we approaching anything resembling a consensus? It seems it would have been much faster were everyone active.

Patience. Forum mafia is a slow beast. People need time to think and analyze.
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Shakerag

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #72 on: October 13, 2014, 09:54:09 am »

So are we approaching anything resembling a consensus? It seems it would have been much faster were everyone active.
[unofficial IC]
Read through some of the other completed games in this forum to get an idea of how the game flow will go.  You can expect that a full game can take up to a month or more to complete, and each individual day could be up to a week long.  D1 in many beginner's games will often go for a week or longer.
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Illgeo

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #73 on: October 13, 2014, 03:15:47 pm »

Scripten: What oportunistic behavior or evasiveness have you found in KJ's post? If anything, he seems to give more information than needed
Worldmaster: Why your altitude is so pessimistic?
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Worldmaster27

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #50: The Big One: D1: Histories of Scum and Town
« Reply #74 on: October 13, 2014, 03:25:54 pm »

Worldmaster: Why your altitude is so pessimistic?
Could you please elaborate? I don't really see how my posts are pessimistic - suspicious of others, sure, but not pessimistic.
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