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Author Topic: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration  (Read 36082 times)

Sergarr

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #345 on: September 15, 2014, 07:48:09 am »

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/los-angeles-vaccination-rates/

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This is why anti-vaccination propaganda should be forbidden.
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Criptfeind

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #346 on: September 15, 2014, 08:27:32 am »

I'm not sure if this is super pertinent, but I found it quite funny. Went to the museum the other day, and there was a exhibit about why you should get your vaccinations and herd immunity and stuff. And the exhibit was for small children, it came up to my knees. There wasn't a equivalent exhibit for adults, but I couldn't help but wonder if there should be.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #347 on: September 15, 2014, 09:45:11 am »

Gav keeps trying to frame this issue as being about "trying to push for 100% coverage when we're already fine forever", but it really isn't.  In order to prevent the vaccination rate backsliding you need pretty much constant advocacy and vaccination pushes in order to counter the anti-vax bullshit that constantly pops up (see: all the European countries such as the UK and France that now have endemic measles again, there's no reason why the US can't go the same way).

Basically if you push for 100% you still barely end up at a level where endemic measles is eliminated, because some people can't get the vaccine, some people are too young to have got it yet, sometimes the vaccine doesn't work (particularly after one shot), some people are convinced that it will give their child autism and will never get it etc.
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Thief^

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #348 on: September 15, 2014, 10:41:43 am »

Basically if you push for 100% you still barely end up at a level where endemic measles is eliminated, because some people can't get the vaccine, some people are too young to have got it yet, sometimes the vaccine doesn't work (particularly after one shot), some people are convinced that it will give their child autism and will never get it etc.

I have read the entire thread, and it basically boils down to this ^^^

Vaccine rates aren't aiming for 100% out of the belief that somehow 100% vaccination is the best rate, but because it gets you as close as is reasonable to the best rate. The US pushes for high vaccination levels, and yet some places (schools, a well known infection vector :P) only have 25% vaccination levels.

Say the tipping point between vaccine deaths and disease deaths is at 80% vaccination. Say that trying to vaccinate everyone gets you between 20% and 99.8% vaccinated across an area (e.g. LA, numbers roughly from the link a few posts up), at an average of 83% total vaccination (totally arse-pulled number). Shouldn't be a problem right? If anything, slightly less would be better, right?

Except that because of how non-linear herd immunity is, you can't just average the vaccination rate like that across a large sample. Those schools with 25% vaccination rates? The disease gets into one or more and infects the unvaccinated 75% quite quickly. Those children go home sick, and before the disease is identified the parents have taken it to their friends and workplaces, all with varying levels of vaccination. This starts an epidemic that sweeps the entire of LA, many thousands infected.

The end result being that even though "average" vaccination levels were above the threshold, more people die from the disease than the vaccine. Purely because of hotspots where vaccination levels are lower (sometimes much lower) than required. You can't even say "well you could lower the vaccination levels slightly in the areas where it's 99.8%". No, you can't do that safely, simply because those areas are immediately adjacent to areas with 25% vaccination with many connections, and so they don't benefit from the herd immunity - the majority of the better-vaccinated area are likely to come into contact with an infected person from the 25% area adjacent.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2014, 10:46:17 am by Thief^ »
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Squeegy

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #349 on: September 15, 2014, 10:57:15 am »

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/los-angeles-vaccination-rates/

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This is why anti-vaccination propaganda should be forbidden.
Forbidden? That's a little much. I don't know where you live, but in the United States we're free to say whatever we like, even if it's inaccurate and ridiculous like anti-vaccination. Nobody gets to decide what is and isn't legitimate enough to be allowed.
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GavJ

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #350 on: September 15, 2014, 11:04:20 am »

Quote
Except that because of how non-linear herd immunity is, you can't just average the vaccination rate like that across a large sample. Those schools with 25% vaccination rates? The disease gets into one or more and infects the unvaccinated 75% quite quickly. Those children go home sick, and before the disease is identified the parents have taken it to their friends and workplaces, all with varying levels of vaccination. This starts an epidemic that sweeps the entire of LA, many thousands infected.
I agree the 25% schools in L.A. area are dangerous

But the solution to a problem with a small handful of schools at 25% in the entire nation (even in that L.A. map there were only 2 or 3 nearly that bad) is to go do work and address the issue in those highly unique situations. Not to change your policies for the entire country, which is way way way above 25% in pretty much every other place. That's like hunting a duck in a specific bush and deciding to just nuke the entire state to get it.

You're aware that you don't have to do the same advertising campaign or put the exact same amount of resources or strategy into every individual location, yes? If the goal is ~80% (maybe 85% in urban centers, 75% in rural villages), and an urban center is at 25%, you go change your advertising and send more agents there to work on bringing it up, even while potentially at the same time you spend resources to calm people down and attempt to reduce the rate in, let's say New York, where perhaps the level is at 95% (made up).

Quote
Gav keeps trying to frame this issue as being about "trying to push for 100% coverage when we're already fine forever", but it really isn't.  In order to prevent the vaccination rate backsliding you need pretty much constant advocacy and vaccination pushes in order to counter the anti-vax bullshit that constantly pops up (see: all the European countries such as the UK and France that now have endemic measles again, there's no reason why the US can't go the same way).
The endemic measles in the UK is due to a higher base infection rate there than the U.S. (by a lot, see study linked earlier about this, it was about 50% higher base infection rate due to I don't know, culture geography, etc?), and it's endemic-ness is only a handful of cases that might possibly still be above risk-benefit balancing point, and could be easily reversed quickly if/when India and Africa approach getting ready for worldwide eradication.  This isn't the end of the world and may even still be an optimal strategy (or may not, don't know for sure just from glancing at it without more data)
« Last Edit: September 15, 2014, 11:06:04 am by GavJ »
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Solymr

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #351 on: September 15, 2014, 11:39:36 am »

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/los-angeles-vaccination-rates/

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

This is why anti-vaccination propaganda should be forbidden.
Forbidden? That's a little much. I don't know where you live, but in the United States we're free to say whatever we like, even if it's inaccurate and ridiculous like anti-vaccination. Nobody gets to decide what is and isn't legitimate enough to be allowed.
I'm glad to live in a country where the WBC would be put in jail. Same for people who defend a public health risk  using misinformation.
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MDFification

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #352 on: September 15, 2014, 12:03:49 pm »

I think that a pure mathematical analysis declaring we don't have enough information to decide whether or not vaccines are valuable is pretty darn silly.
Statistics =/= reality. A more useful field of knowledge to draw this conclusion from would be the specific study of epidemics, and determining what role vaccination has played in preventing/mitigating them.

Currently, the medical consensus is that there is very little evidence of vaccinations being directly linked to death. Vaccination caused death is believed either to not exist or to be extremely rare by the CDC, based on data collected by VAERS, the Vaccination Adverse Event Reporting System. VAERS is a post-market reporting system that collects reports of adverse reactions to vaccination. It has been operating for decades on a national level. They do have the field of data to determine to what degree vaccination is a health risk to the public; it has been determined that the health risk is negligible. For example, there is one case between 1990 and 1992 in the continental united states where it has been determined that vaccination possibly caused death.

Risk/benefit balancing points are thus so highly weighted towards vaccination that aiming for 100% vaccination is by far the best choice. The risk is so small in comparison to the death rate from unvaccinated populations that we might as well not consider it, as the only case in which vaccination would cause more human suffering than it would resolve would be after viral disease has been all but eliminated worldwide.
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Thief^

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #353 on: September 15, 2014, 12:08:21 pm »

Vaccination caused death is believed either to not exist or to be extremely rare by the CDC, based on data collected by VAERS, the Vaccination Adverse Event Reporting System. VAERS is a post-market reporting system that collects reports of adverse reactions to vaccination. It has been operating for decades on a national level. They do have the field of data to determine to what degree vaccination is a health risk to the public; it has been determined that the health risk is negligible. For example, there is one case between 1990 and 1992 in the continental united states where it has been determined that vaccination possibly caused death.

Bolding because this is important.
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Neonivek

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #354 on: September 15, 2014, 12:09:25 pm »

Except I think we are all missing something that GravJ saw.

That the lower the vaccination the more people will gain natural immunity and less people will die in an individual outbreak. :P
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Leafsnail

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #355 on: September 15, 2014, 12:17:25 pm »

The endemic measles in the UK is due to a higher base infection rate there than the U.S. (by a lot, see study linked earlier about this, it was about 50% higher base infection rate due to I don't know, culture geography, etc?), and it's endemic-ness is only a handful of cases that might possibly still be above risk-benefit balancing point, and could be easily reversed quickly if/when India and Africa approach getting ready for worldwide eradication.  This isn't the end of the world and may even still be an optimal strategy (or may not, don't know for sure just from glancing at it without more data)
No the actual reason for the UK endemic is the (bullshit) autism scare.  Measles was eliminated as a native disease in the 90s (in spite of this alleged higher base infection rate) and came back after vaccination rates fell.

I don't know what you mean by it being endemic in "only a handful of cases".  It's endemic, full-stop.  It has a constant presence in the country. On average a kid dies from it every year and you have provided no evidence to suggest that increasing vaccination coverage would cause even close to 1 death per year (for vaccines to cause one death per year even at full coverage would require a fatality rate of at least 1 per 400,000 or so, and if you're talking about a fractional change then that would require a higher fatality rate still).
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Neonivek

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #356 on: September 15, 2014, 12:37:49 pm »

Actually what is interesting Leafsnail is looking at information... The USA and Canada have actually documented Measles quite extensively.

You can see the difference in Measles cases significantly between pre and post vaccine as well as pre and post 2-dose.

We can easily just compare the different doses to the very same country.

85% can mean as much as 10,000 cases... and this is in Canada and we have a low population and population density. A place with high population and high population density would aggravate any disease.

Vaccination caused death is believed either to not exist or to be extremely rare by the CDC, based on data collected by VAERS, the Vaccination Adverse Event Reporting System. VAERS is a post-market reporting system that collects reports of adverse reactions to vaccination. It has been operating for decades on a national level. They do have the field of data to determine to what degree vaccination is a health risk to the public; it has been determined that the health risk is negligible. For example, there is one case between 1990 and 1992 in the continental united states where it has been determined that vaccination possibly caused death.

Bolding because this is important.

Ok lets be generous here.

Measles kills about 1% of everyone who contracts it unvaccinated assuming, of course, that it is equally distributed among the population (as outbreaks tend to hit the vulnerable first so equal distribution is meaningless. or rather small outbreaks tend to have a much higher fatality rate then huge outbreaks)

Vaccines if we accept this kills about 1 in every 100,000,000 million who take a shot. maybe one in 50 million.

That statistic enough? :P
« Last Edit: September 15, 2014, 12:57:35 pm by Neonivek »
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GavJ

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #357 on: September 15, 2014, 01:32:19 pm »

Vaccination caused death is believed either to not exist or to be extremely rare by the CDC, based on data collected by VAERS, the Vaccination Adverse Event Reporting System.
CDC:
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/vaccine-safety/pdf/adverse-events-chart.pdf
You mean like here, where the CDC publishes an estimate of 1.1 deaths (and 63 serious reactions) per million for smallpox vaccination? Far above the death rate that would be balanced with risk if, say, MMR were found to have a similar rate? I.e. the CDC is predicting that nationwide smallpox vaccination at those rates would =~ 300 deaths.

Regarding VAERS:
1) At <10% reporting estimated by the CDC at, there isn't even a big enough subject pool to determine sufficient safety from VAERS, even if all reporting from 10% of the population were perfectly filled out, omniscient reports of exactly what occurred. And also in reality, those who do report are mostly complete bullshit in terms of details or professionalism full of stuff like "at an unknown date an unknown vaccine was taken and some unknown stuff happened." So actual useful reporting is even lower.

2) That being said, there are still deaths reported to VAERS all the time with much higher than average VAERS detail... I don't know what you're talking about if you are usggesting death reports are unknown to VAERS. Here are a few (by NO means all, I don't have hours and hours to read) I pulled out from 2013 alone that seemed reasonably plausible vaccine-related deaths:

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Again, this is a subset of the 30,000 reported events in the database for only 2013 that I had time to find in about half an hour break at work.

We could also get into the various rulings from vaccine courts that have paid out many millions of U.S. tax dollars for vaccine deaths, if you like. They go out of their way to disclaim them as evidence of medically definite causal fact, but obviously, these qualify as quite possible vaccine related deaths, if the government is agreeing to pay hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars after investigation and court cases.

Quote
For example, there is one case between 1990 and 1992 in the continental united states where it has been determined that vaccination possibly caused death.
Citation, in light of the above?
« Last Edit: September 15, 2014, 01:35:46 pm by GavJ »
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Neonivek

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #358 on: September 15, 2014, 01:35:43 pm »

GavJ those are unrelated.
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GavJ

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Re: Vaccine risks vs. benefits, a thorough mathematical consideration
« Reply #359 on: September 15, 2014, 01:36:22 pm »

GavJ those are unrelated.
Please expand, not sure what you're saying.
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