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Author Topic: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice  (Read 429729 times)

Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2295 on: February 10, 2018, 09:44:02 pm »

It wasn't effective anywhere, that's the problem. Look at the studies done on it, which are listed in smjjames link. Studies either find no effect whatsoever, or participants took more drugs or tried them at younger ages than non-participants. I'll just drop the overview of the studies here:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

So, DARE seems to make things worse. It started in 1983, and you can look at violent crime rates, and see that they were falling until the very year that DARE started, but then began to skyrocket:



My point here isn't that DARE caused this, it's that just looking at correlations is meaningless. If crime had fallen immediately after DARE was initiated, they'd be taking credit for that. But that's not what happened: an unprecedented crime spike occurred after DARE was initiated. But they wash their hands of that "clearly not our fault, because we're an anti-crime initiative". Taking credit for any positive change but absolving oneself of blame for any negative change is clear institutional confirmation bias.

However, since the studies suggest DARE makes drug-taking behavior more likely, then we can in fact make a solid claim that DARE contributed some small part to the late 1980s crime wave, and in fact impeded the subsequent declines, rather than contributing to them. In fact, the homicide rate fell strongly again from 2005-2010, at the same time that DARE funding was slashed because of negative political reactions to the previous studies.

When I said I hadn't looked into it "too much" I meant, I've read the descriptions of the studies relating to DARE's effectiveness, without chasing up the original research, or looking for other articles.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 10:16:49 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2296 on: February 10, 2018, 10:19:23 pm »

I've read the links Reelya.  I've read the papers.  Studied the data as well.  It concentrates on the undeniable failure of DARE as a drug prevention program.  The data does not however even attempt to measure the effect of the community outreach portion of the program, and based on my personal experience, and the massive decrease in juvenile arrests for gang related crime especially, for my area, DARE was entirely successful on that front.

Also, that gun homicide chart is meaningless in the context of this discussion, we aren't talking about gun crimes, we're talking about juvenile gang crime.

Also, when making an argument about correlation vs. causation, don't make a goddamn argument using correlation as causation.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 10:21:38 pm by NullForceOmega »
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Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2297 on: February 10, 2018, 10:27:11 pm »

But youth gang crime fell for pretty much every areas, whether or not they even had DARE style outreach programs. The question would then be whether the youth crime in your area fell faster than the nation as a whole.

The gun crime graph I linked is still relevant, because homicide in all age brackets tracked the same curve. The 15-19 year old curve rose and fell more strongly at the times DARE was being heavily pushed in the inner cities than other age brackets. My point wasn't causation, but the lack of evidence that it did anything good for youth crime.

The last point I made is that it's known that DARE pushed up drug consumption, that's a proven point. So, that did add to the problem of drug and crime violence in the late 1980s, to the extent that drugs were a big factor in that crime wave.

« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 10:31:24 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2298 on: February 10, 2018, 10:30:28 pm »

Reelya, the vast majority of juvenile crime in relation to gang activity is THEFT, not homicide.  Dealers don't have the new kids go out and kill people, they have them steal shit to sell, they have them mule drugs, they don't even want them strapped, they want them as inconspicuous as they can manage.  And they want a lot of them because most are going to wash out via arrest, addiction, or being scared off.

And that chart right there shows a notable decline right when DARE was most active in my area, we didn't even have a functional DARE program until the mid 90s.

And your point IS causation, that is the literal definition of your words.  Nothing in statistics is known except the raw data, the rest is inferred from analysis.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 10:34:30 pm by NullForceOmega »
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Grey morality is for people who wish to avoid retribution for misdeeds.

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Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2299 on: February 10, 2018, 10:33:17 pm »

But property crime also follows the same curve as the homicide ones:





You're saying that I've given a wrong measure, but I gave one measure mainly because every graph says the same thing. You'd have a point if I was misrepresenting the data by cherry picking, but I'm not doing that, I just gave one graph for clarity.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 10:37:07 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2300 on: February 10, 2018, 10:35:27 pm »

Still shows a marked decrease in related crime during the period of 92-2000.

The only thing those graphs have in common is that they show a spike in the early nineties, followed by measurable decrease.  And I will certainly give you that that indicates an overall trend regarding crime, you cannot make a broad statement from those data points without subjecting them to the same statistical analysis.  Drawing a bunch of different graphs that are not directly related doesn't provide any meaningful data.  *There are no standard errors or standard deviations on those graphs, so the overall relevance of the peaks and valleys have no meaning.  Easy example is the peak in the early 1990s.  Let's say the graphs have a standard error of 100.  If the spike is only 50, then it is not noteworthy and just am abnormally high data point, but still within the range of the data.  However, if the spike was 150, then the peak is relevant.  You CANNOT just take graphs with no statistical context and make a point with them.  Also, the last graph is from Canada, not the US, so it has no relevance to US crime.  And the second graph also has no sources listed, so it is also suspect.*

*Part of the above paragraph was written by my wife, who is currently teaching statistics at MSU.

And as to your follow-up assertion, everything that you have indicated is entirely coincidental.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 10:58:46 pm by NullForceOmega »
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Grey morality is for people who wish to avoid retribution for misdeeds.

NullForceOmega is an immortal neanderthal who has been an amnesiac for the past 5000 years.

Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2301 on: February 10, 2018, 10:46:48 pm »

https://alcoholfacts.org/DARE.html

This ones states that DARE participants in Houston were 29% more likely to use illegal drugs, which is an absolutely huge increase. But this is not "coincidental". DARE increases illegal drug use, and illegal drug use fuels drug crime, and by extension, violent gang crime related to drugs and money. None of that is "coincidence" they're expected results of the increase in drug money flowing in.

Like I said however, crime came down in all areas of the USA, whether or not those towns even had local DARE programs: cities fund DARE, so not all cities have DARE, but all of them saw comparable drops across all crime categories. If there was any positive correlation between the decreases and having DARE programs at a city by city level, they would be trumpeting that to the sky. The people who run DARE would greatly benefit from doing city-by-city comparisons between those cities who fund DARE, and those who do not, if there was any connection whatsoever. But they're not producing city by city comparisons at all, which suggests the data isn't that good.

Any local decrease in crime and the fact that you have a DARE program is entirely coincidental. The program purely exists as a "seen to be doing good" / "think of the children" program that in effect just gives the impression of doing something. Having youth clubs etc is not a bad thing, however there's very little evidence that their existence is a driver of decreased crime.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:04:52 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2302 on: February 10, 2018, 11:04:03 pm »

You keep harping on the ineffectiveness of the program in regard to drug use.  I already yielded that point to you, you obsessing over it makes you look pretty desperate for supporting data.  I also admitted that I don't have supporting data because no one is collecting or analyzing the data that would help me support my position.

I think that we're going to have to agree to disagree here, as you aren't even close to disproving my point and I can't back it up any further than the impact in my community.
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Grey morality is for people who wish to avoid retribution for misdeeds.

NullForceOmega is an immortal neanderthal who has been an amnesiac for the past 5000 years.

Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2303 on: February 10, 2018, 11:11:52 pm »

Quote
no one is collecting or analyzing the data that would help me support my position.

I don't think that is true. There is plenty of relevant data being collected, and almost all of it is publicly available (US law enforcement data). However, the data just doesn't support that position. it's a type of confirmation bias to say that "no one is collecting or analyzing the data that would help me support my position" because all the available data supports the other position. Saying otherwise is a bit like a "God of the Gaps" argument: none of the existing data supports that position, so they're clearly not ... looking at the right data ... or something? I don't really get this point of view.

The DARE people clearly have the data, but they're deliberately choosing not to publish the reports that would back up their claims, which would have prevented their massive loss of funding. If it cost even $1 million to make a report merely showing even a slightly better crime decline in pro-DARE areas vs non-DARE areas, then they could have avoided losing $6 million in funding. e.g. they have their funding data and they have the crime data. If they could show that a loss of DARE funding correlated with worse crime outcomes at all that's what they'd be doing, but they're not doing that.
 
To me, that is prime proof that the data on their side isn't very good.

Quote
I can't back it up any further than the impact in my community.

But how much evidence do you have that DARE had anything to do with crime decreases in your community? Plenty of places had huge crime decreases despite lacking such programs.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:25:06 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2304 on: February 10, 2018, 11:25:28 pm »

No Reelya.  Noone has even attempted to determine what effect if any DARE had in a community outreach capacity, because it is an outgrowth of the war on drugs.

The only data anyone ever cared about was its impact on drug use, because that is why the program exists.  The community outreach was always a distant secondary objective, and when you are trying to justify your existence with a limited budget you focus on your stated mission goal, not something that isn't directly related to it.  Why do you assume that an organization with what amounts to a shoe-string budget would spend their limited resources on acquiring data that they don't see as directly supporting their mission?

To me, this is prime proof that they didn't consider it important.

As for my anecdotal evidence I have known more than a dozen individuals who were affected by the program in a variety of ways, from getting help to get away from the gangs, to aid in acquiring scholarships for higher education, personal interventions by DARE officers helping at least four persons with drug addiction, and in my own case an intervention when I was about to commit several acts of murder and probably ending up dead on the concrete.  And that is from one small subset of people those officers interacted with, out of thousands.  It is probably further worth noting that this was from some of the very worst neighborhoods in my area, with crime rates comparable to cities much, much larger.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:29:05 pm by NullForceOmega »
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Grey morality is for people who wish to avoid retribution for misdeeds.

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Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2305 on: February 10, 2018, 11:35:36 pm »

Well then you're really talking about a different type of program entirely then so we're really discussing two incompatible things here.

What you're talking about is just standard community policing. However, that's not what the federal DARE people are even promoting. It's a local police initiative, and would still exist with or without "DARE" existing.

So we're not even agreeing to disagree here: we're not even talking about the same topic.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:43:42 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2306 on: February 10, 2018, 11:44:40 pm »

Reelya, community policing is anything but 'standard' in the United States, especially in high-risk areas like the ghettos.  DARE is very nearly the only effort at community policing even attempted in those places.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:47:28 pm by NullForceOmega »
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Grey morality is for people who wish to avoid retribution for misdeeds.

NullForceOmega is an immortal neanderthal who has been an amnesiac for the past 5000 years.

Reelya

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2307 on: February 10, 2018, 11:48:50 pm »

Well we can probably agree that existing drug education in schools is a major failure (exposes kids to drugs so they're less scary, and curiosity takes over) while police community outreach is generally a good thing.

Still, I'd argue to defund DARE based on that, because mostly they keep pushing the former, and local police can provably promote the latter better if they're not forced to promote discredited dogma along with it:

Houston saw a 30% increase in teen drug use because of DARE, which means about 25% of all young people in trouble for drugs there are probably in trouble because of the DARE program, meaning more kids enter the justice system, and police officers doing community outreach are overtaxed. Don't let DARE advocates take the credit for local police cleaning up the problems caused by DARE.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:57:13 pm by Reelya »
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NullForceOmega

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2308 on: February 10, 2018, 11:53:08 pm »

I don't think you should decry the program as worthless when it has had positive impact.  Many communities don't have the funding necessary to implement community outreach initiatives without outside funding and training.  A complete re-direction of their efforts would be more beneficial than scrapping them entirely, cut the drug education part and switch focus to outreach, make use of the existing connections and infrastructure of the organization instead.

And as another point, DARE officers are local officers, claiming that they are taking credit for the local police's actions is disingenuous.  And the organization does provide assets for police forces as a whole, so they do deserve some of the credit, even if their message backfired, because they actively worked to mitigate the problem.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 11:58:18 pm by NullForceOmega »
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Grey morality is for people who wish to avoid retribution for misdeeds.

NullForceOmega is an immortal neanderthal who has been an amnesiac for the past 5000 years.

scriver

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Re: The Abusive Policing Thread: Beyond Brown, No Justice
« Reply #2309 on: February 11, 2018, 11:04:14 am »

Houston saw a 30% increase in teen drug use because of DARE, which means about 25% of all young people in trouble for drugs there are probably in trouble because of the DARE program

How can one strengthen that the increased drug use is because of DARE, and not just concurrent with it?
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