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[Baffler]

The Kurds would much rather they do it now while there's chaos everywhere, because if they wait for the civil war to be over they won't be able to enforce their new territorial claims by force of arms as easily, and may actually have to hold a referendum instead of just doing something that looks like one and then declaring it won despite what all the Arabs in "Kurdish ancestral territory" might think of the whole thing.

[Sheb]

They also claim that the referendum is going to be non-binding, so it's mostly a show of politicking. But yeah, it also seems like a way to legitimize their hold over non-Kurdish areas.

[redwallzyl]

They are already independent in all but name. remember the brexit vote was non binding. look how that's going.

[Baffler]

They are already independent in all but name. remember the brexit vote was non binding. look how that's going.

For now. Iraq and Syria aren't in any shape to do anything about it, but Turkey and Iran are both unwilling to tolerate Kurdish separatism in those countries, to avoid energizing Kurdish separatist movements at home. Once the Islamists have been cleaned up the Kurds will likely be next. That may well happen diplomatically rather than militarily, especially if the USA sticks around to help them, but I just don't see an independent Kurdistan happening. And even if it did it'd likely be an absolute South Sudan tier dump considering the region's poor and undeveloped even by Middle Eastern standards, and only the Yazidis and Alawites have have suffered more in the fighting.

[redwallzyl]

Isn't turkeys army purged into uselessness right now? And last I heard Iraqi troops were rather sup par, but maybe they fixed that by now I don't know. And the kurds are nothing if not determined and we have seen what a large group of highly motivated men with guns can do.

[Erkki]

Isn't turkeys army purged into uselessness right now? And last I heard Iraqi troops were rather sup par, but maybe they fixed that by now I don't know. And the kurds are nothing if not determined and we have seen what a large group of highly motivated men with guns can do.

Turkey is very strong, the purge hit mainly top ranking officers. Just like in Russia

[martinuzz]

Not really, the Turkish army really has lost significant strenght and organisation with the purges. And no, it were not just officers that were purged / arrested / put in torture summer camp.

[Sheb]

Sure, but you don't need a top army to slap Kurdistan.

[Loud Whispers]

Isn't turkeys army purged into uselessness right now? And last I heard Iraqi troops were rather sup par, but maybe they fixed that by now I don't know. And the kurds are nothing if not determined and we have seen what a large group of highly motivated men with guns can do.

Turkey is very strong, the purge hit mainly top ranking officers. Just like in Russia

True, but the loss of fighter/helicopter pilots and special forces commanders is not easily replaceable

[smjjames]

Not really, the Turkish army really has lost significant strenght and organisation with the purges. And no, it were not just officers that were purged / arrested / put in torture summer camp.

Yep, I recall that while officers and up got hit harder, even the lowest ranks got significantly hit. The loss of experienced officers is also a major hit and will take even longer to replace.

While they are certainly weakened and not at the top of their capabilities where they would otherwise be, they aren't neccesarily weak.

Sure, but you don't need a top army to slap Kurdistan.

Not if it's backed by US forces, which Kurdistan is definetly going to need to survive the short to mid term. Iran might not like Kurdistan, but they're definetly going to try to manipulate them diplomatically. I can see Turkey not hesitating to go to war with them, but I don't see how Turkey going to war with a Kurdistan would benefit them.

[Descan]

Yeah, I think if Turkey actually went to *war* with an independent Kurdistan, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot vis a vis their own Kurdish population, maybe even starting an actual civil war.

[smjjames]

Crossposting because Trump

Trump slammed Qatar again an hour after Secretary of State Tillerson did a statement defending Qatar.

Vox article on the same thing

Is Trump even aware that we have a big military base there which is also the freaking command center for the entire MidEast region? Plus he does this after freaking offering Qatar an olive branch to mediate, which they declined. Whatever Trump is doing, he clearly has no clue what he is doing.

If I were an ally of the US under President Trump, I'd be slightly nervous about whether he'd up and turn on me. Though Saudi Arabia doesn't care atm since he's doing what they want.

Edit: linked from here, Pakistan and Turkey (who also happen to be our NATO ally) have sent troops to Qatar to defend in case of attack. So, um, those two countries have taken sides and it appears to be escalating pretty badly.

Funny if WWIII starts in a tiny country in the MidEast, though Russia doesn't seem to have taken an actual side here.

[Hanslanda]

WWI started in, what, Serbia? When Franz Ferdinand was assassinated. There is historical precedent for it.

[inteuniso]

WWI started in, what, Serbia? When Franz Ferdinand was assassinated. There is historical precedent for it.

And both sides had been spoiling for a fight for months, with propaganda supporting an arms race (read new Chengdu & Sukhoi craft, F-35 II & THAAD).

Also, this is starting to get weird strategically. Is Turkey splitting off from NATO? Storm is brewing, that's for sure.

[martinuzz]

nuclear Winter is coming