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[Sheb]

Hey, thanks for the sortie numbers.

And I don't see what you mean by "the west is hiding casualties".

[Erkki]

Russia seems to use a lot of good old iron bombs, and various clusters too. They show those in their own media as well. Theres a lot of video of planes flying over their targets... Planes can often be IDd by their form alone. Top-down/bottom-up silhouettes of those Russian attack aircraft and the Sukhoi fighters are pretty unique, as are Syrian MiG-21 and 23s that have been seen in Syria films a lot before.

Some of those may be edited afterwards to change the planes' appearance or cut parts taken at different times, but considering the volume of relatively high quality photos and videos from there, I think majority of the stuff isn't given a propaganda treatment.

And yeah, getting "exact" information from Syria on who attacked whom, where, how and how many victims there were(divided into fighters and civilians too) constantly within 24-ish hours sounds BS still.

Yet, we shouldn't confuse inaccuracy to lack of professionalism. Right now it may either very well fit Russia's plans(if they have any, doesnt always seem so) to simply not care about civilian victims, and fighting like that is cheaper too, saving expensive ordnance. Any positive side phenomena, such as refugee waves towards Turkey, may be just a nice bonus, cherry on the cake.

[Zangi]

Refugees were gonna hit up Turkey and beyond anyways, regardless of the bombings.  Like when the ground war shifts toward a different civilian population, instead of the current civilian populations in the locale of the ground war / bombings.

[Erkki]

Refugees were gonna hit up Turkey and beyond anyways, regardless of the bombings.  Like when the ground war shifts toward a different civilian population, instead of the current civilian populations in the locale of the ground war / bombings.

Yes, and over a million had already traveled through Turkey to Europe before the years end, when Russia has been in Syria for 3 months and had barely yet made a difference.

[miljan]

Refugees were gonna hit up Turkey and beyond anyways, regardless of the bombings.  Like when the ground war shifts toward a different civilian population, instead of the current civilian populations in the locale of the ground war / bombings.

Yes, and over a million had already traveled through Turkey to Europe before the years end, when Russia has been in Syria for 3 months and had barely yet made a difference.

It made a difference in that ISIS and other terrorist groups are losing territory for the first time and there is a offensive from both kurdish and government forces on the occupied territory.

Three Turkish soldiers killed as building collapses in southeast Turkey
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-army-collapse-idUSKCN0VS1UL

Also PKK confirmed that they where responsible for the bomb attack where a lot of civilians died few days ago

And last International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 19, 2016 :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYP7YnclprY

[Erkki]

Refugees were gonna hit up Turkey and beyond anyways, regardless of the bombings.  Like when the ground war shifts toward a different civilian population, instead of the current civilian populations in the locale of the ground war / bombings.

Yes, and over a million had already traveled through Turkey to Europe before the years end, when Russia has been in Syria for 3 months and had barely yet made a difference.

It made a difference in that ISIS and other terrorist groups are losing territory for the first time and there is a offensive from both kurdish and government forces on the

Had* and hey yeah soon Russians need to start bombing ISIS as without more foreign intervention in Syria, they're about to run out of targets within a couple of months.

Besides, I'm not sure if conquering the areas they control will be enough. Restabilizing Syria may take several decades, as we see from Iraq and Afghanistan...

[miljan]

Yea, there is no doubt about it, it will need a long time for things to settle if they settle at all (having several countries in neighborhood that are all fucked up + few more countries that want to fuck you up makes this extremely hard). Even if they take back control of all the territories, I am sure it will not be calm for a long time in the country. There is also a problem that part of population doesnt want to be under syrian government and want to be independent, so they will need to find a way to work around it, maybe to do similar thing that they did with kurds, where they are giving them more autonomy, decentralization or something similar.

[TheDarkStar]

Yea, there is no doubt about it, it will need a long time for things to settle if they settle at all (having several countries in neighborhood that are all fucked up + few more countries that want to fuck you up makes this extremely hard). Even if they take back control of all the territories, I am sure it will not be calm for a long time in the country. There is also a problem that part of population doesnt want to be under syrian government and want to be independent, so they will need to find a way to work around it, maybe to do similar thing that they did with kurds, where they are giving them more autonomy, decentralization or something similar.

I kind of doubt that Syria will be one nation if the war ends any time soon.

[Loud Whispers]

But Turkey and their allies could mistake the Russian planes as a threat.

The aid that cannot be air dropped to areas by Western planes are out of reach of Turkey and Turkmen forces

Not sure how the American and British planes would be mistaken for attack forces though....

The towns are under siege by Gov/Iran/Russian forces and the Russians have deployed their S-400 anti-air missiles in Syria on the ground and the Syrian gov also have their own lesser stocks of anti-air weapons. Given that American and British warplanes have been conducting their own military strikes in Syria already, the appearance of their planes could spook a Syrian or Iranian commander on the ground if they mistook an aid plane for an air strike and cause what would no doubt be a 'diplomatic incident.' But if those same ground forces saw a Russian plane flying overhead they'd pay it no heed. So far Russians and NATO forces have not disrupted each others air force operations (Turkey aside) despite both having the capabilities to do so, but that's pretty much been done by keeping everyone's air operations at a healthy distance from one another (Russia aside).

Would also send a rather confusing message to the civillians if the Russians are both bombing them and sending aid at the same time, which could also raise the risk of the planes being shot at.....

Perhaps, but civilians do not have missiles to shoot aid planes down. I would be more concerned with how any arbiter would be able to confirm that the aid reached the right people

Neither article state whether the planes are flying with the Russian/American/British flag on them though when flown by the aid drops.

I found this one which has a video of an airdrop taking place from a Russian plane, you can see the Russian flag on the tail

[Erkki]

You usually dont need a flag on a plane. Planes are pretty easy to identify and various nations tend to use only small selection of different types for logistical reasons among many. Especially of transport and utility planes.

[Strife26]

Air defense is not nearly so pretty a thing as that.

[Erkki]

Air defense is not nearly so pretty a thing as that.

I was thinking about IDing the aid delivery and iron-bomb dropping plane IDing.

Integrated Air Defence and BVR A2/AD systems are a totally different thing. Though if anything, I believe the system(surface assets from radars, communications etc. to missile launchers and aircraft) Russia has in Syria is vulnerable because its geographically cramped and likely small in unit numbers. Surrounded by threats, vulnerable to cruise missiles and HARMs.

Sure those new Russian missiles have nice range, but something needs to provide that targeting data and the probability of kill against fast, a maneuvering target deploying countermeasures needs more than just firing range.

They AFAIK do have an A-50 in Syria, but you need 4 or 5 keep the eyes up 24/7, and it remains vulnerable in the cramped airspace. Not sure if they want to send enough of those precious planes over there. There are air to air missiles that could reliably take one out from well out of Syrian airspace, and with little warning, and the ones on the ground arent exactly safe either, Russo-Sunni Alliance war or not.

[miljan]

Air defense is not nearly so pretty a thing as that.

I was thinking about IDing the aid delivery and iron-bomb dropping plane IDing.

Integrated Air Defence and BVR A2/AD systems are a totally different thing. Though if anything, I believe the system(surface assets from radars, communications etc. to missile launchers and aircraft) Russia has in Syria is vulnerable because its geographically cramped and likely small in unit numbers. Surrounded by threats, vulnerable to cruise missiles and HARMs.

Sure those new Russian missiles have nice range, but something needs to provide that targeting data and the probability of kill against fast, a maneuvering target deploying countermeasures needs more than just firing range.

They AFAIK do have an A-50 in Syria, but you need 4 or 5 keep the eyes up 24/7, and it remains vulnerable in the cramped airspace. Not sure if they want to send enough of those precious planes over there. There are air to air missiles that could reliably take one out from well out of Syrian airspace, and with little warning, and the ones on the ground arent exactly safe either, Russo-Sunni Alliance war or not.

The only thing you are correct in this, is that the really weakness of anti air system in syria is to be outnumbered. But generally s400 and s 300 in combination of Pantsir-S1 there offer excellent defense against any type of air threats, including cruise missiles/HARMs. They can automatically track and target multiple targets, they have their own jamming systems, own radar systems to 300 km range so they can work independently or in coordination with other systems. You dont need a lot of A-50  because you are already covered with ground and fleet based radars a huge range around your territory. Add to that anti fighter support, the fleet support with their own version of s 300 and other short range missiles, easy and speed of redeployment of ground based s 300 and s 400 you have a very hard defense to crack and lock on (they are also not cramped in one spot, i don't know why you would assume this) , that can only be done with pure outnumbering, but really not that much else. 

And normal the russian own cruiser missiles from mediterranean fleet (that has several submarines from witch few cruiser missiles where fired on syria),  and also the Caspian Sea fleet from where they also launched several attack on syria you have a lot complicated situation in an unlikely chance of a war breaking out between i don't know who, but i guess a world war 3 where a lot more countries would be joining in.

The biggest chance of war starting now is if turkey enters syria (well they already did near border, but I mean a more aggressive approach), and i dont think that will happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgHSEkwiuqQ

[Loud Whispers]

You usually dont need a flag on a plane. Planes are pretty easy to identify and various nations tend to use only small selection of different types for logistical reasons among many. Especially of transport and utility planes.

Yeah when you have the benefit of clear footage and peace of mind, when you're on the ground under the blistering sun with bullets bouncing around and you see a phatty plane approaching which you don't recognize you're going to have to make the call whether that thing's dropping aid or about to go BRRTTTTTTTTT

I imagine most of the time no mistakes would be made, but all it takes is once

[Erkki]

Ground radars have the weakness of having blind areas around them at low altitude even if they're set on mountain tops. This is one of the reasons why radar planes are used.

S300 and S400 have a lot of qualities on their marketing brochures indeed. They're still ground-bound and rely on active sensors. Yes, like certain Western systems they can target smaller ordnance as well(cruise and artillery missiles) but they remain vulnerable: AGM-88 and equivalents are relatively cheap and cruise missiles fly nap of the earth. Huge range is useless without targeting data which needs radars... And with S400s longer ranged missiles, basically needs the radar between the target and the launching platform.

It could be that they developed those for Europe, for firing over Poland and Lithuania to targets acquired from Kaliningrad.

On jamming systems: you usually dont want to jam when under attack because everyone and their mother, even us, have lock-on-jam, riding the beam down capable weapons in their arsenals. Jamming is for denying range and velocity information for self defence(aircraft ECM) at long range before the plane "burns through" and jamming becomes harmful, or blinding a sensor with overwhelming transmission power.

Back on topic: Russia is moving MiG-29s to Armenia. May or may not have anything to do with Middle Eastern situation. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2016/01/05/Russian-airbase-in-Armenia-to-receive-MiG-29-aircraft/2701452025341/

You usually dont need a flag on a plane. Planes are pretty easy to identify and various nations tend to use only small selection of different types for logistical reasons among many. Especially of transport and utility planes.

Yeah when you have the benefit of clear footage and peace of mind, when you're on the ground under the blistering sun with bullets bouncing around and you see a phatty plane approaching which you don't recognize you're going to have to make the call whether that thing's dropping aid or about to go BRRTTTTTTTTT

I imagine most of the time no mistakes would be made, but all it takes is once

Oh yeah, we all would take cover. You dont want to mistake a C-130 gunship(they still use those things) for a transport about to drop cereals.