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[Leafsnail]

Well I get the argument that horrible repressive dictators at least aren't going to send guys to blow us up.  It's just that Qaddafi didn't even have that going for him.

[smjjames]

Isn't Egypt pretty much a super power compared to the rest of the middle east (well them and Iran) at least when it comes to military?

Pretty much, yeah. And more stable, relatively speaking.

Egypt will find itself in a pretty awful situation sooner or later.
ISIS on the east and something similar will rise in Lybia...eventually.

Also, Boko Haram. Far away and irrelevant for the mediterranean situation so far. But it's a third islamic caliphate throwing around alarming claims.
It surely is another source of refugees going to Lybia and to the sea.

Third? Where's the second one?

Though yeah, ISIS could easily spread itself to other trouble spots, they're just focused on Syria and Iraq at the moment. Doesn't mean copycat or affiliated groups could arise.

[TheDarkStar]

Isn't Egypt pretty much a super power compared to the rest of the middle east (well them and Iran) at least when it comes to military?

Pretty much, yeah. And more stable, relatively speaking.

Egypt will find itself in a pretty awful situation sooner or later.
ISIS on the east and something similar will rise in Lybia...eventually.

Also, Boko Haram. Far away and irrelevant for the mediterranean situation so far. But it's a third islamic caliphate throwing around alarming claims.
It surely is another source of refugees going to Lybia and to the sea.

Third? Where's the second one?

Though yeah, ISIS could easily spread itself to other trouble spots, they're just focused on Syria and Iraq at the moment. Doesn't mean copycat or affiliated groups could arise.

I think the three are Boko Haram, ISIS, and whatever the group is called in Libya.

[smjjames]

I wonder how long it will take before those three caliphate claiming groups come into conflict with each other. I don't know if there can be multiple caliphates just fine or they'd be like 'NO!!! There can only be ONE!!!!111!1!11'

[XXSockXX]

Isn't Egypt pretty much a super power compared to the rest of the middle east (well them and Iran) at least when it comes to military?

Yes, but they would have problems if they were surrounded by islamists on all sides, they have enough islamists in Egypt as it is (the still very influential Muslim Brotherhood). They have already gotten into minor fights with Libyan islamists, so it looks like they might intervene on that front. If something similar arises in their East plus their local islamists rise up...they might have a problem.

It surely is another source of refugees going to Lybia and to the sea.

I don't know about Nigeria, but there is a flood of refugees from other countries coming in, that the Libyan regime used to delay before. It's pretty messed up. I even met two refugees from Eritrea recently, one who had just requested asylum and one who freshly immigrated illegaly. That's really weird, on the one hand these guys have no chance here, on the other hand they have no chance at home either and I'd do the same thing in their place, they've been through some sick shit.

Though yeah, ISIS could easily spread itself to other trouble spots, they're just focused on Syria and Iraq at the moment. Doesn't mean copycat or affiliated groups could arise.

I guess it works like a franchise, if you claim you're affiliated, you're in. That is the danger of this new tactic with proclaiming a caliphate, Al-Quaida never did that.

[Ai Shizuka]

Third? Where's the second one?

Lybia.
Last count was around two hundred different armed groups, from simple tribes to the seven major factions.
But someone will take the helm at some point. And it won't be a "moderate" faction.

Egypt is not going to admit it, but they already bombed a few targets in Lybia, for good reasons (from their point of view).

[smjjames]

I knew there were many factions in Lybia, but didn't know of any of them claiming caliphate.

[XXSockXX]

I knew there were many factions in Lybia, but didn't know of any of them claiming caliphate.

I have not either, but I can see it becoming a fad, at least as long as IS seems to succeed with that tactic. It was something Al-Quaeda consciously avoided, but IS looks successful with it, so it could become an example for others.

[Ai Shizuka]

They aren't calling themselves a caliphate yet.
It's just Ansar al-Sharia declaring Benghazi an islamic emirate.

There isn't a defined entity like ISIS or Boko Haram yet, but something will emerge sooner or later.
And Egypt is right in the middle.

[smjjames]

I knew there were many factions in Lybia, but didn't know of any of them claiming caliphate.

I have not either, but I can see it becoming a fad, at least as long as IS seems to succeed with that tactic. It was something Al-Quaeda consciously avoided, but IS looks successful with it, so it could become an example for others.

Which brings us back to what I was wondering a bit earlier:

I wonder how long it will take before those three caliphate claiming groups come into conflict with each other. I don't know if there can be multiple caliphates just fine or they'd be like 'NO!!! There can only be ONE!!!!111!1!11'

[XXSockXX]

Eh, that's only going to become a problem if there are territorial or operational overlaps. Ansar al-Sharia is not that far from other islamists in the region, just the usual ideology, so I don't know about them, but Boko Haram are pretty much crazy heretics by conservative Sunni standards, they don't have that much in common with Arabic Islamic movements. So there is some potential for conflict maybe, but I don't think Arabic Islamists care much about Nigeria currently.

[burningpet]

There is also Hamas that preached the whole caliphate thing years ago already. so far, naturally, Hamas and ISIS don't get along, not because of their ideology because they have practically the same ideology, but because of a personal power struggle. there was an incident not too long ago (Couple of Years) where hamas fighters stormed a mosque that was preaching for ISIS and killed the preacher on the spot.

Right, they should have helped out the famously non-terrorist Qadaffi

Exactly. seeing how the libyan people were FAR better off with qadaffi, i'd say yes, they should have helped out the recently non-terrorist qadaffi. or at least do nothing when he tries to protect his country from Al-qaeda.

Hezbollah is rumored to leave the syrian front and retract back to lebanon starting from october
http://www.elnashra.com/news/show/782235/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B9%D9%87-%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%8A

The lebanese somehow think that ISIS operations against them in lebanon were due to hezbollah involvement in syria so there were rising demands of them to leave that battlefield.

[XXSockXX]

Right, they should have helped out the famously non-terrorist Qadaffi

Exactly. seeing how the libyan people were FAR better off with qadaffi, i'd say yes, they should have helped out the recently non-terrorist qadaffi. or at least do nothing when he tries to protect his country from Al-qaeda.

Not sure about the "far better off" part, as Gaddaffi was a pretty sick individual who tortured and raped his population for fun in his spare time. But from a geostrategical point of view, he kept the region stable, which somehow makes him, if not a lesser evil, a more predictable alternative. Same with Saddam, it was underestimated how much he kept Iraq together. And with evil crazy dictators you can make deals and arrangements, with religious fanatics, you can't. That is the moral dilemma currently, with a mass murderer like Assad in place the region is more stable and less dangerous than with islamist militias taking over.
The only long-term alternative would be to build up and support democratic moderate forces in the region, but that opportunity was missed a very long time ago. With the grassroots support islamists have built over the decades, plus all the tribal, ethnic and religious rivalries, it does not look very viable now. Even the Kurds are actually splintered into many rival factions, they just keep it together to fight IS. If that should be over, things might look different again there too.

[burningpet]

Are you speaking about the accusation that Gaddafi soldiers were raping protesters?

[XXSockXX]

Are you speaking about the accusation that Gaddafi soldiers were raping protesters?

No, I was thinking of stuff like this (Google should turn up many other articles about that).
Just saying, while I agree that Libya with Gaddafi was somewhat preferable to what is now in geostrategical terms, on a personal level he very much got what he deserved.